NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — EPS near $11.51 in 2026: FY26 EPS guidance mid $11.72 vs target ~$11.51.
Marriott grows rooms by about 5% in 2026. Revenue reaches nearly $6 billion next year. Profit per share rises to about $11.5. The company returns $4.3 billion to shareholders in dividends and buybacks.
Revenue growth is slow and profit margins may shrink. Share buybacks could slow if cash flow weakens. Competition and economic headwinds may pressure room growth.
The price is about 23% above our fair value near $312. Analysts expect 7% revenue growth, close to management's 4.5%-5% rooms growth target. Our fair value is below the Street median, reflecting caution on margin and growth sustainability.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $11.38 in FY26
Breaks if: net rooms growth falls below 4.5% in FY26
Breaks if: revenue falls below $5.925 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent growth and shareholder returns. The current thesis state indicates a recovery in performance, but caution is warranted due to potential market volatility.
The market currently prices in a premium compared to peers, reflecting expectations of stable growth. However, there is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that while the fundamentals are strong, they may not fully justify the current valuation.
Management has set clear priorities for growth, including net rooms growth and adjusted EBITDA increases, which are on track. Recent financial performance has been strong, but there is a moderate risk of missing future guidance, which could impact credibility.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet growth targets and the overall health of the Consumer Discretionary sector. Key factors include the performance of sector peers and macroeconomic conditions like inflation and interest rates.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company beat earnings expectations recently. This supports the outlook for adjusted EBITDA growth. However, there are challenges in maintaining that growth. Increased competition in the branded homes segment may impact future performance.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Marriott aims to sustain adjusted EBITDA growth between 8% and 10% for 2026.
Breaks if: shareholder returns fall below $3.5 billion in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, Marriott's performance will depend on execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.
