Marriott International (MAR)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-10-15

$388.05+0.61%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Marriott International’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

13.10 → 13.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 19 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 19 to 19; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS near $11.51 in 2026	A primary condition in Marriott International's published investment case. The stated target is ~$11.51 EPS.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $11.38 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $2.90 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$11.51 EPS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 20262.9 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 345734d2-58f5-429c-8dc6-3c825fb96f7a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve 4.5% to 5% net rooms growth in 2026	A primary condition in Marriott International's published investment case. The stated target is 4.5% to 5% net rooms growth.	Intact	net rooms growth falls below 4.5% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Marriott added roughly 17,900 net rooms in 2026-Q2, continuing a trend of net rooms growth around 4.5% year-over-year since 2025-Q2. Full year 2026 guidance targets net rooms growth at the low end of 4.5% to 5%. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with management's stated target. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue near $5.945 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Marriott International's published investment case. The stated target is ~$5.945 billion revenue.	Under Pressure	revenue falls below $5.925 billion in FY26	Revenue: $7.071B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$5.945 billion revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 20267,071,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 345734d2-58f5-429c-8dc6-3c825fb96f7a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Marriott added roughly 17,900 net rooms in 2026-Q2, continuing a trend of net rooms growth around 4.5% year-over-year since 2025-Q2. Full year 2026 guidance targets net rooms growth at the low end of 4.5% to 5%. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with management's stated target. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Return $4.3 billion to shareholders in 2026	The company returns $4.3 billion to shareholders in dividends and buybacks.	Intact	shareholder returns fall below $3.5 billion in FY26	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Marriott returned approximately $2.6 billion to shareholders year-to-date through July 29, 2026, and full year guidance targets capital returns exceeding $4.5 billion. The company has consistently executed share repurchases and dividends aligned with this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$13.10

$13.12 → $13.10 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$29.47B

$29.54B → $29.47B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$13.12	$29,540,040,400	24 / 19
2026-07-25	$13.11	$29,544,888,380	25 / 20
2026-07-26	$13.11	$29,544,888,380	25 / 20
2026-07-27	$13.11	$29,544,588,380	25 / 20
2026-07-28	$13.03	$29,523,972,617	17 / 16
2026-07-29	$13.03	$29,523,972,617	17 / 16
2026-07-30	$13.11	$29,544,588,380	25 / 20
2026-07-31	$13.03	$29,523,972,617	17 / 16
2026-08-01	$13.03	$29,523,972,617	17 / 16
2026-08-02	$13.11	$29,544,588,380	25 / 20
2026-08-03	$13.04	$29,533,259,428	17 / 16
2026-08-04	$13.11	$29,544,588,380	25 / 20
2026-08-05	$13.12	$29,523,865,380	26 / 20
2026-08-06	$13.12	$29,523,865,380	26 / 20
2026-08-07	$13.07	$29,506,537,058	18 / 16
2026-08-08	$13.14	$29,498,915,590	26 / 20
2026-08-09	$13.14	$29,498,915,590	26 / 20
2026-08-10	$13.07	$29,506,537,058	18 / 16
2026-08-12	$13.14	$29,495,415,590	26 / 20
2026-08-13	$13.07	$29,506,537,058	18 / 16
2026-08-14	$13.07	$29,506,537,058	18 / 16
2026-08-15	$13.07	$29,506,537,058	18 / 16
2026-08-16	$13.07	$29,506,537,058	18 / 16
2026-08-17	$13.07	$29,506,537,058	18 / 16
2026-08-18	$13.07	$29,506,537,058	18 / 16
2026-08-19	$13.07	$29,506,537,058	18 / 16
2026-08-20	$13.10	$29,466,861,088	18 / 16
2026-08-21	$13.11	$29,466,861,088	18 / 16
2026-08-22	$13.11	$29,466,861,088	18 / 16
2026-08-23	$13.11	$29,466,861,088	18 / 16
2026-08-24	$13.11	$29,466,861,088	18 / 16
2026-08-25	$13.11	$29,466,861,088	18 / 16
2026-08-26	$13.11	$29,466,861,088	18 / 16
2026-08-27	$13.11	$29,466,861,088	18 / 16
2026-08-28	$13.11	$29,466,861,088	18 / 16
2026-08-29	$13.11	$29,466,861,088	18 / 16
2026-08-30	$13.12	$29,522,959,040	18 / 16
2026-08-31	$13.12	$29,522,959,040	18 / 16
2026-09-01	$13.12	$29,522,959,040	18 / 16
2026-09-02	$13.12	$29,522,959,040	18 / 17
2026-09-03	$13.10	$29,522,611,088	18 / 17
2026-09-04	$13.10	$29,522,611,088	19 / 17
2026-09-05	$13.10	$29,522,611,088	19 / 17
2026-09-06	$13.10	$29,522,611,088	19 / 17
2026-09-07	$13.10	$29,522,611,088	19 / 17
2026-09-08	$13.10	$29,522,611,088	19 / 17
2026-09-09	$13.10	$29,522,611,088	19 / 17
2026-09-10	$13.10	$29,522,611,088	19 / 17
2026-09-11	$13.10	$29,484,724,846	19 / 17
2026-09-12	$13.10	$29,484,724,846	19 / 17
2026-09-13	$13.10	$29,484,724,846	19 / 17
2026-09-14	$13.10	$29,484,724,846	19 / 17
2026-09-15	$13.10	$29,484,724,846	19 / 17
2026-09-16	$13.10	$29,484,724,846	19 / 17
2026-09-17	$13.10	$29,484,724,846	19 / 17
2026-09-18	$13.10	$29,484,724,846	19 / 17
2026-09-19	$13.10	$29,484,724,846	19 / 17
2026-09-20	$13.11	$29,484,724,846	19 / 17
2026-09-21	$13.11	$29,484,724,846	19 / 17
2026-09-22	$13.11	$29,484,724,846	19 / 17
2026-09-23	$13.11	$29,484,724,846	19 / 17
2026-09-24	$13.11	$29,484,724,846	19 / 17
2026-09-25	$13.11	$29,484,724,846	19 / 17
2026-09-26	$13.11	$29,484,724,846	19 / 17
2026-09-27	$13.11	$29,484,724,846	19 / 17
2026-09-28	$13.11	$29,484,724,846	19 / 17
2026-09-29	$13.11	$29,484,724,846	19 / 17
2026-09-30	$13.11	$29,484,724,846	20 / 17
2026-10-01	$13.11	$29,484,724,846	19 / 17
2026-10-02	$13.11	$29,486,506,193	19 / 17
2026-10-03	$13.11	$29,486,506,193	19 / 17
2026-10-04	$13.11	$29,486,506,193	19 / 17
2026-10-05	$13.11	$29,486,506,193	19 / 17
2026-10-06	$13.11	$29,486,506,193	19 / 17
2026-10-07	$13.11	$29,486,506,193	19 / 17
2026-10-08	$13.11	$29,486,506,193	19 / 17
2026-10-09	$13.11	$29,486,506,193	19 / 17
2026-10-10	$13.11	$29,486,506,193	19 / 17
2026-10-11	$13.11	$29,486,506,193	19 / 17
2026-10-12	$13.11	$29,486,506,193	19 / 17
2026-10-13	$13.11	$29,486,506,193	19 / 17
2026-10-14	$13.11	$29,486,506,193	19 / 17
2026-10-15	$13.10	$29,468,165,002	19 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	12	3
2026-06-01	12	12	2
2026-07-01	12	12	2
2026-08-01	13	12	3
2026-09-01	13	13	2
2026-10-01	14	13	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 12 · prior May 12

$353.00 → $384.00+8.8%

$0$211.20$422.40

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS near $11.51 in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Achieve 4.5% to 5% net rooms growth in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue near $5.945 billion in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Return $4.3 billion to shareholders in 2026Required source inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Marriott International outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth and shareholder returns. The current thesis state is intact, reflecting a mix of positive and negative factors influencing the business.

What's priced into Marriott International

The market appears to price in a premium compared to peers, indicating expectations of consistent performance. However, the valuation is considered expensive, suggesting that investors are cautious about future execution quality.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve its adjusted EBITDA growth target of 8% to 10% for 2026, supported by recent financial performance. However, there is a moderate risk due to the company's history of misses, which could impact future results.

What Marriott International hinges on

Key scenarios include the potential for management to cut guidance, which would negatively affect credibility. Additionally, inflation trends and the performance of sector peers like HLT and IHG will be crucial in determining MAR's trajectory.