NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Recent financial performance freshly dropped to the bottom half of its industry.
MAA owns apartments in growing US regions. It guides Core FFO per share near $8.69 in 2026. Profit margins remain very high near 95.6%. The company has low risk and stable management.
MAA trades at a high price-to-earnings ratio of 38.18, well above peers at 16.18. Revenue growth is slow, near 0.4% guided for 2025. Guidance is soft, showing some uncertainty in execution.
The market prices MAA about 31% above our fair value near $108. Analysts expect about 3% revenue growth. Our fair value is 21% below the Street median, reflecting skepticism on valuation.
Breaks if: Core FFO per share falls below $8.0 in FY26
Breaks if: Core FFO per share Q2 falls below $2.00
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 93% in FY25
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a stable investment with a focus on managing risks and maintaining earnings. The current thesis state indicates a weakened outlook due to recent performance and market conditions.
The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation with some expectations of fragility. MAA is currently viewed as stretched compared to its peers, indicating that investors may expect steady performance without significant surprises.
Management is focused on driving Core Funds From Operations (FFO) growth and maintaining guidance, which is on track. However, recent financial performance has slipped, suggesting potential challenges ahead.
The thesis hinges on key factors such as management's ability to maintain earnings guidance, the impact of Federal Reserve rate changes, and the performance of sector peers. Any cuts to guidance could negatively affect sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No, our read on the company is unchanged. MAA narrowed its full-year 2026 guidance, lowering expected Core FFO and Same Store NOI growth. Analysts expect MAA's diluted EPS to decline 2.6% year-over-year for the fiscal year ending December 2026. The company has underperformed the S&P 500 and the Residential REIT ETF over the past year.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below -0.3% in FY25
In the next 1 to 3 years, MAA's performance will depend on its execution against management priorities and broader economic conditions. Not investment advice.
