Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA)

NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-10-15

$116.63+0.31%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Mid-America Apartment Communities’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.09 → 3.14 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Core FFO per share at or above $8.69 in 2026	It guides Core FFO per share near $8.69 in 2026.	Intact	Core FFO per share falls below $8.0 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Core FFO per share between $2.00 and $2.12 in Q2 2026	It guides Core FFO per share near $8.69 in 2026.	Intact	Core FFO per share Q2 falls below $2.00	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin near 95.6% in 2025	Profit margins remain very high near 95.6%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 93% in FY25	Gross margin: 60.6% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~95.6%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202660.600007 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above 0.4% in 2025	A supporting condition in Mid-America Apartment Communities's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.4% YoY.	Broken	Revenue growth falls below -0.3% in FY25	Revenue growth: 0.95% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.4% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.950169 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f22c7dbe-8dd5-4e48-8070-13b68a7d6a8d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.14

$3.13 → $3.14 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.28B

$2.30B → $2.28B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.13	$2,304,044,920	7 / 18
2026-07-25	$3.13	$2,304,044,920	7 / 18
2026-07-26	$3.13	$2,304,044,920	7 / 18
2026-07-27	$3.13	$2,304,044,920	7 / 18
2026-07-28	$3.32	$2,299,411,622	8 / 14
2026-07-29	$3.13	$2,304,044,920	7 / 18
2026-07-30	$3.13	$2,304,044,920	7 / 18
2026-07-31	$3.32	$2,292,711,994	8 / 14
2026-08-01	$3.32	$2,292,711,994	8 / 14
2026-08-02	$3.14	$2,295,402,340	8 / 19
2026-08-03	$3.14	$2,295,402,340	8 / 19
2026-08-04	$3.14	$2,295,402,340	8 / 19
2026-08-05	$3.32	$2,292,711,994	8 / 14
2026-08-06	$3.32	$2,292,711,994	8 / 14
2026-08-07	$3.32	$2,292,711,994	8 / 14
2026-08-08	$3.14	$2,295,182,980	8 / 19
2026-08-09	$3.14	$2,295,182,980	8 / 19
2026-08-10	$3.32	$2,292,711,994	8 / 14
2026-08-12	$3.13	$2,293,840,970	9 / 18
2026-08-13	$3.32	$2,292,711,994	8 / 14
2026-08-14	$3.32	$2,292,711,994	8 / 14
2026-08-15	$3.32	$2,292,711,994	9 / 14
2026-08-16	$3.32	$2,292,711,994	9 / 14
2026-08-17	$3.32	$2,292,711,994	9 / 14
2026-08-18	$3.32	$2,292,711,994	9 / 14
2026-08-19	$3.32	$2,292,711,994	9 / 14
2026-08-20	$3.11	$2,285,467,179	10 / 14
2026-08-21	$3.11	$2,285,467,179	10 / 14
2026-08-22	$3.11	$2,285,467,179	10 / 14
2026-08-23	$3.11	$2,285,467,179	10 / 14
2026-08-24	$3.11	$2,285,467,179	10 / 14
2026-08-25	$3.10	$2,286,219,764	9 / 13
2026-08-26	$3.10	$2,286,219,764	9 / 13
2026-08-27	$3.10	$2,286,219,764	9 / 13
2026-08-28	$3.10	$2,286,219,764	9 / 13
2026-08-29	$3.10	$2,285,862,669	9 / 13
2026-08-30	$3.10	$2,285,862,669	9 / 13
2026-08-31	$3.10	$2,285,862,669	9 / 13
2026-09-01	$3.10	$2,285,958,050	9 / 13
2026-09-02	$3.10	$2,285,958,050	9 / 13
2026-09-03	$3.09	$2,285,195,220	9 / 13
2026-09-04	$3.09	$2,285,195,220	9 / 13
2026-09-05	$3.09	$2,285,195,220	9 / 13
2026-09-06	$3.09	$2,285,195,220	9 / 13
2026-09-07	$3.09	$2,285,195,220	9 / 13
2026-09-08	$3.09	$2,285,195,220	9 / 13
2026-09-09	$3.09	$2,284,770,744	8 / 13
2026-09-10	$3.09	$2,284,770,744	8 / 13
2026-09-11	$3.09	$2,284,770,744	8 / 13
2026-09-12	$3.09	$2,284,770,744	8 / 13
2026-09-13	$3.09	$2,284,770,744	8 / 13
2026-09-14	$3.09	$2,284,770,744	8 / 13
2026-09-15	$3.09	$2,283,621,230	8 / 13
2026-09-16	$3.09	$2,283,621,230	8 / 13
2026-09-17	$3.09	$2,283,621,230	8 / 13
2026-09-18	$3.09	$2,283,621,230	8 / 13
2026-09-19	$3.09	$2,283,621,230	8 / 13
2026-09-20	$3.14	$2,282,922,346	8 / 13
2026-09-21	$3.14	$2,282,922,346	8 / 13
2026-09-22	$3.14	$2,282,922,346	8 / 13
2026-09-23	$3.14	$2,282,922,346	8 / 13
2026-09-24	$3.14	$2,282,922,346	8 / 13
2026-09-25	$3.14	$2,282,922,346	8 / 13
2026-09-26	$3.14	$2,282,922,346	8 / 13
2026-09-27	$3.14	$2,282,922,346	8 / 13
2026-09-28	$3.14	$2,282,922,346	8 / 13
2026-09-29	$3.14	$2,282,922,346	8 / 13
2026-09-30	$3.14	$2,282,922,346	8 / 13
2026-10-01	$3.14	$2,282,922,346	8 / 13
2026-10-02	$3.14	$2,282,922,346	8 / 13
2026-10-03	$3.14	$2,282,915,398	8 / 13
2026-10-04	$3.14	$2,282,915,398	8 / 13
2026-10-05	$3.14	$2,282,915,398	8 / 13
2026-10-06	$3.14	$2,282,915,398	8 / 13
2026-10-07	$3.14	$2,282,915,398	8 / 13
2026-10-08	$3.14	$2,282,915,398	8 / 13
2026-10-09	$3.14	$2,282,915,398	8 / 13
2026-10-10	$3.14	$2,282,915,398	8 / 13
2026-10-11	$3.14	$2,282,915,398	8 / 13
2026-10-12	$3.14	$2,282,915,398	8 / 13
2026-10-13	$3.14	$2,282,915,398	8 / 13
2026-10-14	$3.14	$2,282,963,017	8 / 14
2026-10-15	$3.14	$2,282,963,017	8 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	13	3
2026-06-01	10	12	3
2026-07-01	10	14	3
2026-08-01	9	14	3
2026-09-01	9	14	3
2026-10-01	9	14	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 14 · prior Sep 15

$129.00 → $124.00-3.9%

BarclaysOct 14 · prior Aug 17

$146.00 → $136.00-6.8%

Piper SandlerOct 12 · prior Jul 21

$143.00 → $121.00-15.4%

Evercore ISISep 21 · prior Sep 14

$129.00 → $123.00-4.7%

Truist FinancialSep 17

$132.00New observation · no comparable prior

ScotiabankSep 17 · prior Aug 4

$134.00 → $125.00-6.7%

$0$80.30$160.60

0 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Core FFO per share at or above $8.69 in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Core FFO per share between $2.00 and $2.12 in Q2 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Gross margin near 95.6% in 2025Gross margin: 60.6%
Revenue growth at or above 0.4% in 2025Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Mid-America Apartment Communities outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable compounder in the real estate sector. The current thesis is cautious due to mixed recent performance and sector challenges, but management's focus on growth and disciplined capital allocation provides a foundation for stability.

What's priced into Mid-America Apartment Communities

The market appears to have priced in a stretched valuation relative to peers, with a slight expectations gap. There is a low level of fragility, suggesting that while the stock is not overly expensive, it may not fully reflect the challenges in the sector.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable as management continues to prioritize earnings growth and capital allocation. The near-term risk of missing guidance is low, but the company operates in a high-miss-rate industry, which could impact performance.

What Mid-America Apartment Communities hinges on

The thesis hinges on external factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Fed and the performance of sector peers. Additionally, any changes in earnings guidance could significantly affect market perceptions and stock performance.