Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)

NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-10-15

$170.51-1.16%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Live Nation Entertainment’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.89 → 1.86 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capex of $1.1 to $1.2 billion for venue expansion	The company plans $1.1 to $1.2 billion in capital spending to expand venues.	Intact	Capex falls below $900 million or exceeds $1.3 billion in FY26	Capital expenditures: $289.524M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $1.1B to $1.2B total capex. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026289,524,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Double-digit growth in adjusted operating income	Live Nation aims for double-digit growth in operating income in 2026.	Intact	Adjusted operating income growth falls below 5% YoY in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Adjusted operating income grew from $798 million in 2025-Q2 to $817 million in 2026-Q2. Management consistently reiterates double-digit AOI growth and compounding over years, with financials showing modest growth, indicating delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue growth around 12% in 2026	A primary condition in Live Nation Entertainment's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY revenue growth.	Under Pressure	Revenue growth falls below 7% YoY in FY26	Revenue growth: 9.42% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20269.422732 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c8e8991d-13cd-4ee3-9dfe-de2da7371bba. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Adjusted operating income grew from $798 million in 2025-Q2 to $817 million in 2026-Q2. Management consistently reiterates double-digit AOI growth and compounding over years, with financials showing modest growth, indicating delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Double-digit fan growth at owned venues	New deals and partnerships support fan growth at venues.	Intact	Fan growth falls below 5% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Venue Nation fan attendance grew from about 60 million in 2024-Q4 to a projected 75 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting double-digit growth. Management consistently emphasizes this growth, and the trajectory matches the stated goal. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.86

$2.16 → $1.86 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$30.75B

$30.35B → $30.75B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.16	$30,354,417,440	15 / 24
2026-07-25	$2.16	$30,358,722,340	15 / 25
2026-07-26	$2.16	$30,358,722,340	15 / 25
2026-07-27	$2.44	$30,396,981,263	13 / 18
2026-07-28	$2.44	$30,396,981,263	13 / 18
2026-07-29	$2.15	$30,358,722,340	15 / 25
2026-07-30	$2.15	$30,358,722,340	15 / 25
2026-07-31	$2.27	$30,473,514,435	13 / 19
2026-08-01	$2.27	$30,473,514,435	13 / 19
2026-08-02	$1.93	$30,675,504,010	17 / 25
2026-08-03	$1.93	$30,675,504,010	17 / 25
2026-08-04	$1.92	$30,724,210,829	13 / 18
2026-08-05	$1.92	$30,724,210,829	13 / 18
2026-08-06	$1.93	$30,675,504,010	17 / 25
2026-08-07	$1.92	$30,724,210,829	13 / 18
2026-08-08	$1.93	$30,675,504,010	17 / 25
2026-08-09	$1.93	$30,675,504,010	17 / 25
2026-08-10	$1.93	$30,675,504,010	17 / 25
2026-08-12	$1.93	$30,675,504,010	17 / 25
2026-08-13	$1.93	$30,675,504,010	17 / 25
2026-08-14	$1.92	$30,724,210,829	13 / 18
2026-08-15	$1.92	$30,724,210,829	13 / 18
2026-08-16	$1.92	$30,724,210,829	13 / 18
2026-08-17	$1.92	$30,724,210,829	13 / 18
2026-08-18	$1.92	$30,724,210,829	13 / 18
2026-08-19	$1.92	$30,724,210,829	13 / 18
2026-08-20	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-08-21	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-08-22	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-08-23	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-08-24	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-08-25	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-08-26	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-08-27	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-08-28	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-08-29	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-08-30	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-08-31	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-09-01	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-09-02	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-09-03	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-09-04	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-09-05	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	13 / 19
2026-09-06	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	13 / 19
2026-09-07	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	13 / 19
2026-09-08	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	13 / 19
2026-09-09	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	13 / 19
2026-09-10	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	13 / 19
2026-09-11	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	13 / 19
2026-09-12	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-09-13	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-09-14	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-09-15	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-09-16	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-09-17	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-09-18	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-09-19	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-09-20	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-09-21	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-09-22	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-09-23	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-09-24	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	14 / 19
2026-09-25	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	13 / 19
2026-09-26	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	13 / 19
2026-09-27	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	13 / 19
2026-09-28	$1.89	$30,748,632,747	13 / 19
2026-09-29	$1.87	$30,748,632,747	13 / 19
2026-09-30	$1.87	$30,748,632,747	13 / 19
2026-10-01	$1.87	$30,748,632,747	13 / 19
2026-10-02	$1.87	$30,745,520,549	13 / 19
2026-10-03	$1.87	$30,745,520,549	13 / 19
2026-10-04	$1.87	$30,745,520,549	13 / 19
2026-10-05	$1.87	$30,745,520,549	13 / 19
2026-10-06	$1.87	$30,745,520,549	13 / 19
2026-10-07	$1.87	$30,745,520,549	13 / 19
2026-10-08	$1.87	$30,745,520,549	13 / 19
2026-10-09	$1.87	$30,745,520,549	13 / 19
2026-10-10	$1.87	$30,745,520,549	13 / 19
2026-10-11	$1.86	$30,733,930,781	13 / 19
2026-10-12	$1.86	$30,733,930,781	13 / 19
2026-10-13	$1.86	$30,733,930,781	13 / 19
2026-10-14	$1.86	$30,751,093,701	13 / 19
2026-10-15	$1.86	$30,751,093,701	13 / 19

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	20	3	1
2026-06-01	20	3	2
2026-07-01	20	3	2
2026-08-01	20	3	2
2026-09-01	20	3	2
2026-10-01	20	3	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BernsteinOct 13 · prior Jul 31

$215.00 → $220.00+2.3%

$0$121.00$242.00

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capex of $1.1 to $1.2 billion for venue expansionCapital expenditures: $289.524M
Double-digit growth in adjusted operating incomeDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth around 12% in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Double-digit fan growth at owned venuesDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Live Nation Entertainment outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

LYV represents a long-term investment in the Communication Services sector, focusing on growth through fan engagement and operating income. The current thesis state is stable, with management priorities showing progress, but the company faces sector headwinds and is currently loss-making.

What's priced into Live Nation Entertainment

The market appears to have priced in a level of stability, as indicated by a low expectations gap. However, LYV is considered expensive relative to its peers, suggesting that investors may be cautious about future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on double-digit growth in adjusted operating income and fan attendance, both of which are on track. However, the company has a moderate risk profile and recent earnings surprises have been erratic, indicating some uncertainty in near-term performance.

What Live Nation Entertainment hinges on

The future performance of LYV may depend on external factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the performance of sector leaders like NFLX and DIS. A cut in guidance could negatively impact sentiment, while positive earnings from peers could provide a boost.