LyondellBasell (LYB)

NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-15

$64.01+2.14%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge LyondellBasell’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-6.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.53 → 6.11 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow of at least $1.1 billion in 2026	LyondellBasell is improving cash flow with a $1.1 billion target in 2026.	Improving	Free cash flow falls below $600 million in FY25 or below $1.1 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $482M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1100 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026482,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income recovery to at least $239 million in Q1 2026	Profit rose to $239 million in Q1, showing better cost control.	Improving	Operating income falls below prior quarter loss of $88 million	Operating income: $1.543B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=239 USD_MILLIONS operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20261,543,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d685ce8c-627d-49b8-81b2-5e264e4ef8b7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 6 quarters. Management emphasized leveraging cost-advantaged North American production and increasing operating rates to about 90% in 2026-Q2. Operating income rose from $114 million in 2025-Q1 to $239 million in 2026-Q1, reflecting improved margins and volumes. The company also completed turnarounds and optimized production in key facilities. The trajectory is delivering improved operational performance aligned with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue growth above 7% annually	A primary condition in LyondellBasell's published investment case. The stated target is >=7.9% YoY.	Broken	Revenue growth falls below 7% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.11

$6.45 → $6.11 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$31.55B

$31.92B → $31.55B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.45	$31,919,722,230	17 / 15
2026-07-25	$6.45	$31,919,722,230	17 / 15
2026-07-26	$6.45	$31,919,722,230	17 / 15
2026-07-27	$6.63	$31,875,513,751	9 / 11
2026-07-28	$6.63	$31,875,513,751	9 / 11
2026-07-29	$6.45	$31,919,722,230	17 / 15
2026-07-30	$6.45	$31,919,722,230	17 / 15
2026-07-31	$6.63	$31,875,513,751	9 / 11
2026-08-01	$6.63	$31,875,513,751	9 / 11
2026-08-02	$6.43	$31,918,342,230	17 / 15
2026-08-03	$6.43	$31,918,342,230	17 / 15
2026-08-04	$6.43	$31,918,342,230	17 / 15
2026-08-05	$6.52	$32,124,320,914	9 / 11
2026-08-06	$6.46	$32,090,753,310	16 / 14
2026-08-07	$6.52	$32,124,320,914	9 / 11
2026-08-08	$6.45	$32,051,143,180	16 / 14
2026-08-09	$6.52	$32,124,320,914	9 / 11
2026-08-10	$6.52	$32,124,320,914	9 / 11
2026-08-12	$6.45	$32,051,143,180	16 / 14
2026-08-13	$6.45	$32,051,143,180	16 / 14
2026-08-14	$6.52	$32,124,320,914	9 / 11
2026-08-15	$6.52	$32,124,320,914	9 / 11
2026-08-16	$6.52	$32,124,320,914	9 / 11
2026-08-17	$6.52	$32,124,320,914	9 / 11
2026-08-18	$6.52	$32,124,320,914	9 / 11
2026-08-19	$6.52	$32,124,320,914	9 / 11
2026-08-20	$6.58	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-08-21	$6.58	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-08-22	$6.58	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-08-23	$6.58	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-08-24	$6.58	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-08-25	$6.58	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-08-26	$6.58	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-08-27	$6.58	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-08-28	$6.58	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-08-29	$6.58	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-08-30	$6.56	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-08-31	$6.56	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-09-01	$6.56	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-09-02	$6.56	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-09-03	$6.56	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-09-04	$6.56	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-09-05	$6.56	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-09-06	$6.56	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-09-07	$6.56	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-09-08	$6.56	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-09-09	$6.56	$31,424,118,464	9 / 11
2026-09-10	$6.50	$31,255,985,131	9 / 11
2026-09-11	$6.50	$31,255,985,131	9 / 10
2026-09-12	$6.50	$31,237,986,060	9 / 11
2026-09-13	$6.50	$31,237,986,060	9 / 11
2026-09-14	$6.50	$31,237,986,060	9 / 11
2026-09-15	$6.53	$31,236,621,598	9 / 11
2026-09-16	$6.53	$31,236,621,598	9 / 11
2026-09-17	$6.53	$31,236,621,598	9 / 11
2026-09-18	$6.53	$31,236,621,598	9 / 11
2026-09-19	$6.53	$31,236,621,598	9 / 11
2026-09-20	$6.53	$31,236,621,598	9 / 11
2026-09-21	$6.53	$31,236,621,598	9 / 11
2026-09-22	$6.53	$31,236,621,598	9 / 11
2026-09-23	$6.45	$31,314,780,005	9 / 11
2026-09-24	$6.22	$31,316,163,837	9 / 11
2026-09-25	$6.22	$31,316,163,837	9 / 11
2026-09-26	$6.16	$31,391,958,586	9 / 12
2026-09-27	$6.16	$31,391,958,586	9 / 12
2026-09-28	$6.16	$31,391,958,586	9 / 12
2026-09-29	$6.16	$31,391,958,586	9 / 12
2026-09-30	$6.16	$31,391,958,586	9 / 12
2026-10-01	$6.12	$31,442,440,147	9 / 12
2026-10-02	$6.12	$31,442,440,147	9 / 12
2026-10-03	$6.12	$31,442,440,147	9 / 12
2026-10-04	$6.12	$31,442,440,147	9 / 12
2026-10-05	$6.12	$31,442,440,147	9 / 12
2026-10-06	$6.12	$31,417,377,647	9 / 12
2026-10-07	$6.12	$31,417,377,647	9 / 12
2026-10-08	$6.12	$31,417,377,647	9 / 12
2026-10-09	$6.12	$31,417,377,647	9 / 12
2026-10-10	$6.12	$31,417,377,647	9 / 12
2026-10-11	$6.12	$31,417,377,647	9 / 12
2026-10-12	$6.12	$31,417,377,647	9 / 12
2026-10-13	$6.14	$31,554,835,193	9 / 12
2026-10-14	$6.11	$31,554,172,693	9 / 12
2026-10-15	$6.11	$31,554,172,693	9 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	10	3
2026-06-01	7	9	3
2026-07-01	7	9	3
2026-08-01	7	9	3
2026-09-01	7	10	3
2026-10-01	7	11	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 13 · prior Aug 5

$72.00 → $68.00-5.6%

BarclaysOct 12

$66.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSSep 25 · prior Aug 4

$64.00 → $62.00-3.1%

$0$39.60$79.20

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow of at least $1.1 billion in 2026Free cash flow: $482M
Operating income recovery to at least $239 million in Q1 2026Operating income: $1.543B
Revenue growth above 7% annuallyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 30, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-36.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

LyondellBasell outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround play with a focus on improving cash flow and operational efficiency. The current thesis state indicates mixed progress, with some management priorities on track while earnings quality remains fragile.

What's priced into LyondellBasell

The market appears to have priced in a level of fragility in LYB's execution, suggesting that expectations are low compared to peers. The valuation is considered cheap relative to its competitors, with a slight expectations gap indicating that the market does not fully anticipate strong performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show mixed results in the near term, with recent financial performance indicating some improvement but also a risk of missing future earnings estimates. Management's focus on cash improvement and portfolio transformation may support gradual progress.

What LyondellBasell hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on their cash improvement plan. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and performance of sector bellwethers could significantly influence LYB's trajectory.