Las Vegas Sands (LVS)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-10-15

$38.01-0.81%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Las Vegas Sands’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.51 → 3.50 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Share buybacks	A supporting condition in Las Vegas Sands's published investment case. The stated target is >= $740 million buybacks in 2026-Q1.	Under Pressure	Buybacks fall below $740 million in any quarter	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. LVS repurchased $787M in 2026-Q2 and $740M in 2026-Q1, totaling $6.03B since Q4 2023. Quarterly dividend increased to $0.30 per share in 2026-Q1 and maintained in 2026-Q2. Management is delivering on capital return with increasing repurchase authorization and consistent dividends. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Competitive position in Singapore	A supporting condition in Las Vegas Sands's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain or improve market share in Singapore.	Intact	Market share declines significantly in Singapore	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Annual earnings per share	It earned $0.85 per share, beating estimates.	Broken	EPS falls below $2.35 in FY 2026	Diluted EPS: $0.53 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.35 EPS in FY 2026. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Jul 24, 20260.53 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 247a29e7-bfa4-42d0-bbbb-1b7a5bb512b9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth in Macao and Singapore	Growth in Macao and Singapore drives future sales.	Broken	Revenue falls below $3.18 billion in any quarter	Revenue: $3.154B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.585 billion revenue in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 24, 20263,154,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 247a29e7-bfa4-42d0-bbbb-1b7a5bb512b9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.50

$3.64 → $3.50 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$14.50B

$14.66B → $14.50B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.64	$14,662,764,640	15 / 16
2026-07-25	$3.57	$14,552,894,150	16 / 16
2026-07-26	$3.57	$14,552,894,150	16 / 16
2026-07-27	$3.56	$14,542,852,611	11 / 13
2026-07-28	$3.57	$14,552,894,150	16 / 16
2026-07-29	$3.56	$14,558,656,680	16 / 16
2026-07-30	$3.56	$14,558,656,680	16 / 16
2026-07-31	$3.56	$14,554,970,258	11 / 13
2026-08-01	$3.56	$14,554,970,258	11 / 13
2026-08-02	$3.53	$14,558,656,680	16 / 16
2026-08-03	$3.53	$14,558,656,680	16 / 16
2026-08-04	$3.53	$14,558,656,680	16 / 16
2026-08-05	$3.53	$14,554,970,258	11 / 13
2026-08-06	$3.53	$14,554,970,258	11 / 13
2026-08-07	$3.53	$14,554,970,258	11 / 13
2026-08-08	$3.53	$14,558,656,680	16 / 16
2026-08-09	$3.53	$14,558,656,680	16 / 16
2026-08-10	$3.53	$14,554,970,258	11 / 13
2026-08-12	$3.53	$14,558,656,680	16 / 16
2026-08-13	$3.53	$14,558,656,680	16 / 16
2026-08-14	$3.53	$14,554,970,258	11 / 13
2026-08-15	$3.53	$14,554,970,258	11 / 13
2026-08-16	$3.53	$14,554,970,258	11 / 13
2026-08-17	$3.53	$14,554,970,258	11 / 13
2026-08-18	$3.53	$14,554,970,258	11 / 13
2026-08-19	$3.53	$14,554,970,258	11 / 13
2026-08-20	$3.52	$14,531,523,946	11 / 13
2026-08-21	$3.52	$14,531,523,946	11 / 13
2026-08-22	$3.52	$14,531,523,946	11 / 13
2026-08-23	$3.52	$14,531,523,946	11 / 13
2026-08-24	$3.52	$14,531,523,946	11 / 13
2026-08-25	$3.52	$14,531,523,946	11 / 13
2026-08-26	$3.52	$14,531,523,946	11 / 13
2026-08-27	$3.52	$14,531,523,946	11 / 13
2026-08-28	$3.52	$14,531,523,946	11 / 13
2026-08-29	$3.52	$14,531,523,946	11 / 13
2026-08-30	$3.52	$14,531,523,946	11 / 13
2026-08-31	$3.52	$14,531,523,946	11 / 13
2026-09-01	$3.52	$14,531,523,946	11 / 13
2026-09-02	$3.52	$14,531,523,946	11 / 13
2026-09-03	$3.52	$14,531,939,282	11 / 13
2026-09-04	$3.52	$14,531,939,282	11 / 14
2026-09-05	$3.52	$14,531,939,282	11 / 14
2026-09-06	$3.52	$14,531,939,282	11 / 14
2026-09-07	$3.52	$14,531,939,282	11 / 14
2026-09-08	$3.52	$14,531,939,282	11 / 14
2026-09-09	$3.52	$14,531,933,460	11 / 14
2026-09-10	$3.52	$14,531,933,460	11 / 14
2026-09-11	$3.52	$14,531,933,460	11 / 14
2026-09-12	$3.51	$14,518,507,244	11 / 14
2026-09-13	$3.51	$14,518,507,244	11 / 14
2026-09-14	$3.51	$14,518,507,244	11 / 14
2026-09-15	$3.51	$14,518,507,244	11 / 14
2026-09-16	$3.51	$14,518,507,244	11 / 14
2026-09-17	$3.51	$14,518,507,244	11 / 14
2026-09-18	$3.51	$14,518,507,244	11 / 14
2026-09-19	$3.51	$14,518,507,244	11 / 14
2026-09-20	$3.51	$14,518,507,244	11 / 14
2026-09-21	$3.51	$14,518,507,244	11 / 14
2026-09-22	$3.51	$14,518,507,244	11 / 14
2026-09-23	$3.51	$14,518,507,244	11 / 14
2026-09-24	$3.51	$14,518,507,244	11 / 14
2026-09-25	$3.51	$14,516,360,966	11 / 14
2026-09-26	$3.51	$14,516,360,966	11 / 14
2026-09-27	$3.51	$14,516,360,966	11 / 14
2026-09-28	$3.51	$14,516,360,966	11 / 14
2026-09-29	$3.51	$14,516,360,966	11 / 14
2026-09-30	$3.51	$14,516,360,966	11 / 14
2026-10-01	$3.51	$14,516,360,966	11 / 14
2026-10-02	$3.51	$14,516,360,966	11 / 14
2026-10-03	$3.51	$14,516,360,966	11 / 14
2026-10-04	$3.51	$14,516,360,966	11 / 14
2026-10-05	$3.51	$14,516,360,966	11 / 14
2026-10-06	$3.51	$14,516,360,966	11 / 14
2026-10-07	$3.51	$14,516,360,966	11 / 14
2026-10-08	$3.50	$14,504,900,744	11 / 14
2026-10-09	$3.50	$14,504,900,744	11 / 14
2026-10-10	$3.50	$14,504,900,744	11 / 14
2026-10-11	$3.50	$14,504,900,744	11 / 14
2026-10-12	$3.50	$14,504,900,744	11 / 14
2026-10-13	$3.50	$14,504,900,744	11 / 14
2026-10-14	$3.50	$14,502,706,911	11 / 14
2026-10-15	$3.50	$14,497,840,244	11 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	6
2026-06-01	15	6
2026-07-01	15	7
2026-08-01	14	7
2026-09-01	14	7
2026-10-01	14	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 13 · prior Jul 23

$55.00 → $47.00-14.5%

$0$30.25$60.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Share buybacksPublished status: Under Pressure
Competitive position in SingaporeQualitative condition
Annual earnings per sharePublished status: Broken
Revenue growth in Macao and SingaporePublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-48.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Las Vegas Sands outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth in the Macao and Singapore markets. The current thesis state is intact, but recent financial results show some declines in revenue and profitability.

What's priced into Las Vegas Sands

The valuation suggests LVS is priced relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. The market seems to have factored in the recent earnings miss and ongoing challenges in the sector.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain neutral in the near term, given the mixed performance in revenue and profitability. Management's focus on capital return is on track, but the overall financial performance shows some risk.

What Las Vegas Sands hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to drive growth in key markets and the performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, inflation trends and guidance changes could significantly impact future performance.