Liquidia Corp. (LQDA)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - PharmaceuticalsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$42.65+7.46%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Liquidia Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-60.7% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.57 → 2.19 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	198.33M
EPS	—	0.013
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	717M
EPS	—	2.091
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	762.18M
EPS	—	2.187

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations	Cash from operations also rose, supporting growth.	Improving	Cash from operations falls below $40M in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Cash from operations: $80.244M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= $50M quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 202680,244,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Positive net income	Net income improved from $15M to $53M, showing better profits.	Intact	Net income falls below $30M in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Net income: $74.722M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain net income >= $50M quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 202674,722,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f15f5fdd-6d0d-4b3d-83ee-6ca84b2227cd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full year 2026 revenue	A primary condition in Liquidia Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue >= $130M for full year 2026.	Broken	Full year 2026 revenue falls below $120M	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. YUTREPIA net product sales grew from approximately $130 million in 2026-Q1 to $170.4 million in 2026-Q2, a 31% increase. Patient treatment numbers also increased to over 5,000 since launch. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth in sales and patient adoption. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
YUTREPIA net product sales	Liquidia is growing sales of YUTREPIA fast, from $54M to $133M in recent quarters.	Intact	YUTREPIA sales fall below $100M in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. YUTREPIA net product sales grew from approximately $130 million in 2026-Q1 to $170.4 million in 2026-Q2, a 31% increase. Patient treatment numbers also increased to over 5,000 since launch. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth in sales and patient adoption. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.19

$5.70 → $2.19 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.76B

$1.18B → $0.76B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.70	$1,184,371,864	5 / 5
2026-07-25	$5.70	$1,184,371,864	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$5.70	$1,184,371,864	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$5.70	$1,184,371,864	5 / 5
2026-07-28	$5.81	$1,184,247,290	5 / 7
2026-07-29	$5.81	$1,184,253,010	5 / 7
2026-07-30	$5.81	$1,184,253,010	5 / 7
2026-07-31	$5.81	$1,184,253,010	5 / 7
2026-08-01	$5.86	$1,184,377,579	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$5.81	$1,184,253,010	5 / 7
2026-08-03	$5.81	$1,184,253,010	5 / 7
2026-08-04	$5.81	$1,184,253,010	5 / 7
2026-08-05	$5.86	$1,184,377,579	5 / 5
2026-08-06	$5.86	$1,184,377,579	5 / 5
2026-08-07	$5.86	$1,184,377,579	5 / 5
2026-08-08	$5.86	$1,184,377,579	5 / 5
2026-08-09	$5.86	$1,184,377,579	5 / 5
2026-08-10	$5.86	$1,184,377,579	5 / 5
2026-08-12	$5.86	$1,184,377,579	5 / 5
2026-08-13	$5.86	$1,184,377,579	5 / 5
2026-08-14	$5.86	$1,184,377,579	5 / 5
2026-08-15	$5.86	$1,184,377,579	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$5.86	$1,184,377,579	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$5.86	$1,184,377,579	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$5.86	$1,184,377,579	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$5.86	$1,184,377,579	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$5.57	$1,225,751,571	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$5.57	$1,225,761,429	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$5.57	$1,225,761,429	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$5.57	$1,225,761,429	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$5.57	$1,225,761,429	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$5.57	$1,225,761,429	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$5.57	$1,225,761,429	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$5.57	$1,225,761,429	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$5.57	$1,225,761,429	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$5.57	$1,225,761,429	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$5.57	$1,225,761,429	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$5.57	$1,225,761,429	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$5.57	$1,225,761,429	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$5.57	$1,225,761,429	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$5.57	$1,225,761,429	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$5.57	$1,225,761,429	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$5.57	$1,225,761,429	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$5.57	$1,225,761,429	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$5.57	$1,225,761,429	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$5.57	$1,225,761,429	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$5.57	$1,225,894,429	5 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-02	$2.68	$803,631,400	5 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$739,002,686	4 / 5
2026-10-04	$2.34	$739,002,686	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$2.34	$739,002,686	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$2.34	$739,002,686	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$2.34	$739,002,685	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$2.34	$739,002,685	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$2.34	$739,002,685	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$2.34	$739,002,685	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$2.10	$707,691,736	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$2.10	$707,691,736	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$2.10	$707,691,736	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$2.10	$707,691,736	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$2.19	$762,175,423	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$2.19	$762,175,423	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$2.19	$762,175,423	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$2.19	$762,177,752	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$2.19	$762,177,752	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$2.19	$762,177,752	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$2.19	$762,177,752	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$2.19	$762,177,752	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$2.19	$762,177,752	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$2.19	$762,177,752	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	0	1
2026-06-01	8	1	0
2026-07-01	7	1	0
2026-08-01	7	2	0
2026-09-01	6	2	0
2026-10-01	7	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

2 upgrades3 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 10 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 15 · prior Jul 24

$130.00 → $65.00-50.0%

H.C. WainwrightOct 15 · prior Oct 2

$58.00 → $65.00+12.1%

Wells FargoOct 14 · prior Oct 2

$30.00 → $33.00+10.0%

NeedhamOct 14

$58.00New observation · no comparable prior

BTIGOct 14 · prior Jun 22

$109.00 → $70.00-35.8%

WedbushOct 2

$58.00New observation · no comparable prior

Raymond JamesOct 1 · prior Aug 13

$106.00 → $53.00-50.0%

$0$71.50$143.00

2 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operationsCash from operations: $80.244M
Positive net incomeNet income: $74.722M
Full year 2026 revenuePublished status: Broken
YUTREPIA net product salesDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-71.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Liquidia Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented healthcare business with a clinical development component, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact: sales, patient adoption, and profitability improved in the latest quarter, while L606 development is progressing but remains mixed.

What's priced into Liquidia Corp.

LQDA is expensive versus peers, and the valuation model points to expectations running ahead of its fundamentals, though confidence in that model is low. The priced-in signal is marked justified, with no fragility gates triggered, but the premium leaves the thesis sensitive to weaker execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, YUTREPIA sales and patient adoption have been growing, and net income and adjusted EBITDA increased from the first to the second quarter. Management’s sales and profitability priorities are on track, but the company remains classified as loss-making, and a recent quarterly miss and erratic earnings surprises keep execution risk elevated.

What Liquidia Corp. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether YUTREPIA sales growth and profitability continue, and whether guidance avoids a cut. L606’s pivotal study is advancing, but its financial contribution is not established in the evidence; litigation is also a recent negative event. Healthcare sector momentum may help if bellwethers continue to report well, while weakening jobs data could raise recession concerns.