Lennox International (LII)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-15

$357.73-0.21%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Lennox International’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

26.01 → 25.65 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage capital expenditures near $250 million in 2026	Free cash flow is strong, targeted near $750 million.	Intact	capital expenditures exceed $350 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $35.7M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~250 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202635,700,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Capital expenditure guidance of approximately $250 million for 2026 was stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Actual net capital expenditures were $35 million in 2026-Q2 and $55 million in 2026-Q1, indicating disciplined spending consistent with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain EPS in range $23.50 to $25.00 for 2026	It aims for EPS between $23.50 and $25.00 this year.	Broken	EPS falls below $23.5 for FY26	Diluted EPS: $7.72 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=23.5 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20267.72 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b3f449bc-4b73-428e-8aa2-cdb4878fe866. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context EPS guidance for 2026 has been maintained or slightly updated in 3 of last 3 quarters, with the range narrowing from $23.50-$25.00 to $23.00-$24.00. Actual GAAP diluted EPS was $7.72 in 2026-Q2 and $3.35 in 2026-Q1, reflecting ongoing execution consistent with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Generate free cash flow between $750M and $850M in 2026	Free cash flow is strong, targeted near $750 million.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $550 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $136.3M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=750 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026136,300,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Capital expenditure guidance of approximately $250 million for 2026 was stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Actual net capital expenditures were $35 million in 2026-Q2 and $55 million in 2026-Q1, indicating disciplined spending consistent with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve at least 8% revenue growth in 2026	A primary condition in Lennox International's published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26	Revenue growth: 2.96% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20262.958225 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b3f449bc-4b73-428e-8aa2-cdb4878fe866. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue was $5.2 billion in 2025 with guidance reaffirmed at approximately 8% growth for 2026, including 4-5% from acquisitions. The trajectory is delivering as revenue grew 3% in 2026-Q2 and 6% in 2026-Q1, consistent with management's guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$25.65

$26.73 → $25.65 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.92B

$5.92B → $5.92B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$26.73	$5,919,407,880	13 / 15
2026-07-25	$26.73	$5,919,407,880	13 / 15
2026-07-26	$26.73	$5,919,407,880	13 / 15
2026-07-27	$26.73	$5,919,407,880	13 / 15
2026-07-28	$26.81	$5,945,137,120	16 / 17
2026-07-29	$26.84	$5,952,607,710	16 / 17
2026-07-30	$26.84	$5,952,607,710	16 / 17
2026-07-31	$26.23	$5,917,159,255	13 / 15
2026-08-01	$26.23	$5,917,159,255	13 / 15
2026-08-02	$26.21	$5,925,400,432	13 / 16
2026-08-03	$26.21	$5,925,400,432	13 / 16
2026-08-04	$26.21	$5,925,400,432	13 / 16
2026-08-05	$26.21	$5,925,400,432	13 / 16
2026-08-06	$26.21	$5,925,400,432	13 / 16
2026-08-07	$26.18	$5,925,400,432	13 / 16
2026-08-08	$26.33	$5,944,099,100	17 / 17
2026-08-09	$26.18	$5,925,400,432	13 / 16
2026-08-10	$26.18	$5,925,400,432	13 / 16
2026-08-12	$26.33	$5,944,099,100	17 / 17
2026-08-13	$26.18	$5,925,400,432	13 / 16
2026-08-14	$26.18	$5,925,400,432	13 / 16
2026-08-15	$26.18	$5,925,400,432	13 / 16
2026-08-16	$26.18	$5,925,400,432	13 / 16
2026-08-17	$26.18	$5,925,400,432	13 / 16
2026-08-18	$26.18	$5,925,400,432	13 / 16
2026-08-19	$26.18	$5,925,400,432	13 / 16
2026-08-20	$26.24	$5,943,827,156	13 / 16
2026-08-21	$26.24	$5,943,827,156	13 / 16
2026-08-22	$26.24	$5,943,827,156	13 / 16
2026-08-23	$26.24	$5,943,827,156	13 / 16
2026-08-24	$26.24	$5,943,827,156	13 / 16
2026-08-25	$26.24	$5,943,827,156	13 / 16
2026-08-26	$26.24	$5,943,827,156	12 / 16
2026-08-27	$26.24	$5,943,827,156	12 / 16
2026-08-28	$26.24	$5,943,827,156	12 / 16
2026-08-29	$26.19	$5,943,827,156	12 / 16
2026-08-30	$26.19	$5,943,827,156	12 / 16
2026-08-31	$26.19	$5,943,827,156	12 / 16
2026-09-01	$26.10	$5,933,093,822	12 / 16
2026-09-02	$26.10	$5,933,093,822	12 / 16
2026-09-03	$26.10	$5,933,093,822	12 / 15
2026-09-04	$26.10	$5,933,093,822	12 / 16
2026-09-05	$26.06	$5,932,607,282	12 / 16
2026-09-06	$26.06	$5,932,607,282	12 / 16
2026-09-07	$26.06	$5,932,607,282	12 / 16
2026-09-08	$26.06	$5,932,607,282	12 / 16
2026-09-09	$26.06	$5,932,607,282	12 / 16
2026-09-10	$26.06	$5,932,607,282	12 / 16
2026-09-11	$26.06	$5,932,607,282	12 / 16
2026-09-12	$26.06	$5,932,607,282	12 / 16
2026-09-13	$26.06	$5,932,607,282	12 / 16
2026-09-14	$26.06	$5,932,607,282	12 / 16
2026-09-15	$26.01	$5,932,607,282	12 / 16
2026-09-16	$26.00	$5,933,284,680	12 / 16
2026-09-17	$26.00	$5,933,284,680	12 / 16
2026-09-18	$26.00	$5,933,284,680	12 / 16
2026-09-19	$26.00	$5,933,284,680	12 / 16
2026-09-20	$26.00	$5,933,284,680	12 / 16
2026-09-21	$26.00	$5,933,284,680	12 / 16
2026-09-22	$26.05	$5,933,284,680	12 / 16
2026-09-23	$26.05	$5,933,284,680	12 / 16
2026-09-24	$26.05	$5,933,284,680	12 / 16
2026-09-25	$26.04	$5,935,579,387	12 / 16
2026-09-26	$26.04	$5,935,579,387	12 / 16
2026-09-27	$26.04	$5,935,579,387	12 / 16
2026-09-28	$26.04	$5,935,579,387	12 / 16
2026-09-29	$26.04	$5,935,579,387	12 / 16
2026-09-30	$25.99	$5,931,766,887	12 / 16
2026-10-01	$25.95	$5,935,979,713	12 / 16
2026-10-02	$25.95	$5,935,979,713	12 / 16
2026-10-03	$25.95	$5,935,815,570	12 / 16
2026-10-04	$25.95	$5,935,815,570	12 / 16
2026-10-05	$25.93	$5,935,845,007	12 / 16
2026-10-06	$25.93	$5,935,845,007	12 / 16
2026-10-07	$25.89	$5,934,095,007	12 / 16
2026-10-08	$25.89	$5,934,087,188	12 / 16
2026-10-09	$25.80	$5,925,274,688	12 / 16
2026-10-10	$25.80	$5,925,274,688	12 / 16
2026-10-11	$25.77	$5,925,274,688	12 / 16
2026-10-12	$25.77	$5,925,274,688	12 / 16
2026-10-13	$25.77	$5,925,276,501	12 / 16
2026-10-14	$25.76	$5,925,276,501	12 / 16
2026-10-15	$25.65	$5,916,291,063	12 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	12	2
2026-06-01	7	11	1
2026-07-01	7	10	1
2026-08-01	7	9	1
2026-09-01	7	12	1
2026-10-01	6	13	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 15

$395.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 14 · prior Jul 31

$547.00 → $390.00-28.7%

Wells FargoSep 24

$424.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$300.85$601.70

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage capital expenditures near $250 million in 2026Capital expenditures: $35.7M
Maintain EPS in range $23.50 to $25.00 for 2026Published status: Broken
Generate free cash flow between $750M and $850M in 2026Free cash flow: $136.3M
Achieve at least 8% revenue growth in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Lennox International outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a stable management investment with a focus on revenue growth and disciplined capital spending. The current thesis state reflects a medium confidence level due to recent mixed financial performance and elevated risk in the sector.

What's priced into Lennox International

The market currently prices LII as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that investors may be cautious about future performance. The valuation suggests that the market is aware of the company's fragile earnings quality but does not fully reflect the potential for improved execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve approximately 8% revenue growth for 2026, although EPS guidance remains mixed. Recent financial performance has been neutral, with a low probability of missing expectations, but the company has faced challenges like its peers in the industry.

What Lennox International hinges on

The future performance of LII hinges on the guidance provided in the next earnings call and the performance of sector bellwethers like GEV, PH, and TT. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a positive tailwind for LII; however, any negative guidance could lead to a downward adjustment in expectations.