NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve at least 8% revenue growth in 2026: Q2 FY26 rev +3.0% vs 8% target.
Lennox grows revenue about 8% in 2026, with acquisitions adding 4%. It aims for EPS between $23.50 and $25.00 this year. Free cash flow is strong, targeted near $750 million. Capital spending is controlled around $250 million.
EPS fell from $3.63 to $3.35 in Q1 2026, showing pressure on profits. Guidance is soft, risking missing targets. Rising costs or weaker demand could hurt growth and cash flow.
The market prices in about 8% revenue growth and EPS near $24.50 for 2026. Our fair value is about 12% below the current price, reflecting cautious optimism. We see risks in EPS delivery but believe revenue growth and cash flow targets are achievable.
Breaks if: capital expenditures exceed $350 million in FY26
Breaks if: EPS falls below $23.5 for FY26
Breaks if: free cash flow falls below $550 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state shows mixed results in recent financial performance, with some positive earnings beats but underlying fragility in execution quality.
The market currently prices LII as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may be cautious, reflecting the company's recent challenges and the potential for further volatility.
Management is focused on achieving approximately 8% revenue growth in 2026, which is on track based on recent performance. However, the mixed status of EPS guidance and capital expenditures indicates some uncertainty in execution.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GEV, PH, and TT, which could influence LII's trajectory. Additionally, any cuts to guidance in upcoming calls could negatively impact sentiment and expectations.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the read. However, the company cut its 2026 EPS guidance, which threatens the outlook. This guidance cut directly impacts the financial outlook.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, LII's performance will depend on management's ability to navigate risks and maintain growth amidst sector dynamics. Not investment advice.
