NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-15
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ
A valuation that evolves as the business changes.
A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.
View Living FV report and workflow4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve EPS near $11.5 in FY26 | The company raised EPS guidance to about $11.5 for 2026. | Intact | EPS falls below $10.5 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $3.13 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $11.5. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20263.13 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 59e70e53-ea5a-449d-bdd6-254ffd3a5652. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Diluted EPS increased from $2.04 in 2025-Q1 to $3.13 in 2026-Q2, reflecting strong earnings growth. Management raised 2026 EPS guidance to $11.8-$12.0 from $11.4-$11.6, consistent with delivering on earnings commitments. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026 |
Generate free cash flow at least $3B in FY26 | Free cash flow is expected above $3 billion, supporting financial strength. | Intact | free cash flow falls below $2.65B in FY26 | Free cash flow: $771M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026771,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain operating margin near 16% in FY26 | Profit margin is guided to stay near 16%. | Intact | operating margin falls below 15% in FY26 | Operating margin: 11.12% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 16%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202611.120558 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 59e70e53-ea5a-449d-bdd6-254ffd3a5652. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextManagement stated this priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Operating margin improved from 10.2% in 2025-Q1 to 11.1% in 2026-Q2, and segment operating margin rose from 15.7% to 16.0% over the same period. The trajectory matches management's stated focus on margin expansion and cost savings, showing delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026 |
Achieve revenue near $23.25B in FY26 | A primary condition in L3Harris's published investment case. The stated target is ~$23.25B. | Under Pressure | revenue falls below $22B in FY26 | Revenue: $5.881B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$23.25B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20265,881,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 59e70e53-ea5a-449d-bdd6-254ffd3a5652. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Diluted EPS increased from $2.04 in 2025-Q1 to $3.13 in 2026-Q2, reflecting strong earnings growth. Management raised 2026 EPS guidance to $11.8-$12.0 from $11.4-$11.6, consistent with delivering on earnings commitments. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
Comparable estimate history is unavailable.
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Compare required revenue and earningsLatest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Oct 29, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and margin improvement. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings performance and a strong backlog.
The market seems to price in a low level of execution quality, suggesting that while LHX is seen as cheap compared to peers, there is a cautious expectation of performance. The expectations gap indicates that investors are not overly optimistic, but there is still room for improvement.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued revenue growth and margin improvement, as management has consistently prioritized these areas. The near-term risk of missing guidance is low, but past performance shows that any significant miss could impact credibility.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable environment for LHX. Conversely, any negative shifts in their performance could pose risks to LHX's growth trajectory.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, LHX's performance will depend on its ability to maintain growth and manage sector dynamics. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.