Lithia Motors (LAD)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$295.57+1.55%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Lithia Motors’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-5.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

42.62 → 40.34 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	9.47B
EPS	—	8.405
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	9.48B
EPS	—	8.79
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	38.4B
EPS	—	35.97
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	39.62B
EPS	—	40.341

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS grows to at least $32.32 per share in 2025	EPS rises to over $32 per share in 2025 and is expected to continue growing.	Broken	EPS falls below $30 per share in FY25	Diluted EPS: $11.54 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $32.32 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202611.54 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8f4a7f0a-0af9-4243-9eb5-5c7f34ec1aec. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full year revenue reaches at least $37.63 billion	A primary condition in Lithia Motors's published investment case. The stated target is >= $37.63 billion.	Intact	Full year revenue falls below $35 billion in FY26	Revenue: $9.791B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $37.63 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20269,791,300,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8f4a7f0a-0af9-4243-9eb5-5c7f34ec1aec. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stock trades at a P/E below 12	The stock trades cheaply with a P/E of 9.2, well below peers.	Under Pressure	P/E rises above 15 without commensurate earnings growth	P/E (TTM): 8.58x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 20268.5797 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: LAD:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$40.34

$40.75 → $40.34 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$39.62B

$39.81B → $39.62B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$40.75	$39,809,817,450	15 / 14
2026-07-25	$40.75	$39,809,817,450	15 / 14
2026-07-26	$40.75	$39,809,817,450	15 / 14
2026-07-27	$40.75	$39,809,817,450	15 / 14
2026-07-28	$40.75	$39,809,817,450	15 / 14
2026-07-29	$40.75	$39,809,817,450	15 / 14
2026-07-30	$40.75	$39,809,817,450	15 / 14
2026-07-31	$41.86	$39,719,360,070	15 / 14
2026-08-01	$41.54	$39,752,335,431	9 / 11
2026-08-02	$41.86	$39,719,360,070	15 / 14
2026-08-03	$41.86	$39,719,360,070	15 / 14
2026-08-04	$41.86	$39,719,360,070	15 / 14
2026-08-05	$42.20	$39,742,217,210	15 / 14
2026-08-06	$41.54	$39,752,335,431	9 / 11
2026-08-07	$41.84	$39,769,972,524	9 / 10
2026-08-08	$41.84	$39,769,972,524	9 / 10
2026-08-09	$41.84	$39,769,972,524	9 / 10
2026-08-10	$42.15	$39,736,304,640	15 / 13
2026-08-12	$41.84	$39,769,972,524	9 / 10
2026-08-13	$42.15	$39,736,304,640	15 / 13
2026-08-14	$41.84	$39,769,972,524	9 / 10
2026-08-15	$41.84	$39,769,972,524	9 / 10
2026-08-16	$41.84	$39,769,972,524	9 / 10
2026-08-17	$41.84	$39,769,972,524	9 / 10
2026-08-18	$41.84	$39,769,972,524	9 / 10
2026-08-19	$41.84	$39,769,972,524	9 / 10
2026-08-20	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-08-21	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-08-22	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-08-23	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-08-24	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-08-25	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-08-26	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-08-27	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-08-28	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-08-29	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-08-30	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-08-31	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-09-01	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-09-02	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-09-03	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-09-04	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-09-05	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-09-06	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-09-07	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-09-08	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-09-09	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-09-10	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-09-11	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-09-12	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-09-13	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-09-14	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-09-15	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-09-16	$42.17	$39,752,134,291	9 / 10
2026-09-17	$42.62	$39,840,806,159	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$42.62	$39,840,806,159	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$42.62	$39,840,806,159	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$42.62	$39,840,806,159	8 / 9
2026-09-21	$42.62	$39,840,806,159	8 / 9
2026-09-22	$42.62	$39,840,806,159	8 / 9
2026-09-23	$42.62	$39,840,806,159	8 / 9
2026-09-24	$42.62	$39,840,806,159	8 / 9
2026-09-25	$42.62	$39,840,806,159	8 / 9
2026-09-26	$42.62	$39,840,806,159	8 / 9
2026-09-27	$42.62	$39,840,806,159	8 / 9
2026-09-28	$42.62	$39,840,806,159	8 / 9
2026-09-29	$42.62	$39,840,806,159	8 / 9
2026-09-30	$42.62	$39,840,806,159	8 / 9
2026-10-01	$42.62	$39,840,806,159	8 / 9
2026-10-02	$42.62	$39,840,806,159	8 / 9
2026-10-03	$42.62	$39,840,829,236	8 / 9
2026-10-04	$42.62	$39,840,829,236	8 / 9
2026-10-05	$42.62	$39,840,829,236	8 / 9
2026-10-06	$42.42	$39,823,051,096	8 / 9
2026-10-07	$42.16	$39,829,290,974	8 / 9
2026-10-08	$41.85	$39,592,000,246	8 / 9
2026-10-09	$41.85	$39,592,000,246	8 / 9
2026-10-10	$41.85	$39,592,000,246	8 / 9
2026-10-11	$41.80	$39,580,138,708	8 / 9
2026-10-12	$41.80	$39,580,138,708	9 / 9
2026-10-13	$41.64	$39,578,079,554	9 / 9
2026-10-14	$41.64	$39,578,079,554	9 / 10
2026-10-15	$41.64	$39,578,079,554	9 / 10
2026-10-16	$41.49	$39,574,993,221	9 / 10
2026-10-17	$41.49	$39,574,993,221	9 / 10
2026-10-18	$41.45	$39,547,854,836	9 / 10
2026-10-19	$41.45	$39,547,854,836	9 / 10
2026-10-20	$41.45	$39,547,854,836	9 / 10
2026-10-21	$41.45	$39,547,854,836	9 / 10
2026-10-22	$40.79	$39,671,348,574	9 / 10
2026-10-23	$40.33	$39,631,516,336	9 / 10
2026-10-24	$40.34	$39,616,047,105	8 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	4
2026-06-01	12	4
2026-07-01	12	6
2026-08-01	10	6
2026-09-01	10	6
2026-10-01	11	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades9 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 9 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 23 · prior Oct 6

$375.00 → $345.00-8.0%

UBSOct 22 · prior Oct 7

$335.00 → $305.00-9.0%

Craig-HallumOct 22

$400.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$220.00$440.00

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS grows to at least $32.32 per share in 2025Published status: Broken
Full year revenue reaches at least $37.63 billionRevenue: $9.791B
Stock trades at a P/E below 12Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-37.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Lithia Motors outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

LAD is a value-oriented, acquisition-supported growth story in a neutral sector, rather than a low-risk compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent business momentum improving, but confidence is medium because earnings quality is fragile and management execution has been uneven.

What's priced into Lithia Motors

LAD is described as cheap versus peers, though the valuation score has risen recently and the expectations gap is negative. The evidence suggests the market is not pricing in the full combination of weak execution and turbulence; current fragility is assessed as limited and justified.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and acquisitions support expansion: revenue rose between the supplied third-quarter periods, and acquisitions are expected to add annualized revenue. However, SG&A as a share of gross profit worsened for the first nine months of 2026, while repurchases continued at a lower level in the latest quarter. A recent earnings beat is positive, but guidance and peer results remain risks, especially given LAD’s history of a deep miss.

What Lithia Motors hinges on

The next call is a key near-term test: a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while guidance that holds would avoid that stated downside trigger. Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on continued network and adjacent-business growth alongside better operating discipline. Results and guidance from CVNA, PAG, and KMX may also signal whether the sector backdrop remains supportive.