Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)

NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-23

$38.68+1.07%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Kratos Defense & Security Solutions’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+2.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.11 → 1.14 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	493.5M
EPS	—	0.254
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.79B
EPS	—	0.841
EBITDA	$170M–$176Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.21B
EPS	—	1.139

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash flow from operations improves above -$27.4M in Q1 2026	Management aims to improve cash flow and operating income.	Improving	Cash flow from operations falls below -$27.4M in any quarter	Cash from operations: $-9.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > -$27.4M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026-9,900,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
New contracts and drone buildouts continue to advance revenue growth	Kratos grows revenue about 33% yearly, driven by new drone contracts.	Intact	No new contracts or buildouts announced for two consecutive quarters	Qualitative: 3 new contracts/buildouts in last 2 quarters vs 0 required Recent news confirms multiple contract wins and production milestones, including the GEK800 EMD award and expanded defense footprint. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves beyond $4.7M in Q1 2026	Management aims to improve cash flow and operating income.	Broken	Operating income falls below $4.7M in any quarter	Operating income: $-1.6M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > $4.7M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026-1,600,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cf5c117a-d505-4fe0-8e11-621f7e851f4e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches about $1.73B in FY26	A primary condition in Kratos Defense & Security Solutions's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.73B.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.32B in FY26	Revenue: $458.8M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.73B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026458,800,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cf5c117a-d505-4fe0-8e11-621f7e851f4e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.14

$1.07 → $1.14 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.21B

$2.16B → $2.21B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.07	$2,159,276,706	12 / 13
2026-07-25	$1.07	$2,159,276,706	12 / 13
2026-07-26	$1.07	$2,159,276,706	12 / 13
2026-07-27	$1.07	$2,159,276,706	12 / 13
2026-07-28	$1.07	$2,159,276,706	12 / 13
2026-07-29	$1.07	$2,159,276,706	12 / 13
2026-07-30	$1.07	$2,159,276,706	12 / 13
2026-07-31	$1.07	$2,159,276,706	12 / 13
2026-08-01	$1.07	$2,159,276,706	12 / 13
2026-08-02	$1.07	$2,159,276,706	12 / 13
2026-08-03	$1.07	$2,159,276,706	12 / 13
2026-08-04	$1.10	$2,166,412,871	12 / 13
2026-08-05	$1.10	$2,166,412,871	12 / 13
2026-08-06	$1.10	$2,166,412,871	12 / 13
2026-08-07	$1.10	$2,204,082,965	12 / 14
2026-08-08	$1.10	$2,204,082,965	12 / 14
2026-08-09	$1.10	$2,204,082,965	12 / 14
2026-08-10	$1.10	$2,204,082,965	12 / 14
2026-08-12	$1.10	$2,204,082,965	12 / 14
2026-08-13	$1.10	$2,204,082,965	12 / 14
2026-08-14	$1.10	$2,204,082,965	12 / 14
2026-08-15	$1.10	$2,204,082,965	13 / 14
2026-08-16	$1.10	$2,204,082,965	13 / 14
2026-08-17	$1.10	$2,204,082,965	13 / 14
2026-08-18	$1.10	$2,204,082,965	13 / 14
2026-08-19	$1.10	$2,204,082,965	13 / 14
2026-08-20	$1.12	$2,204,710,157	14 / 14
2026-08-21	$1.12	$2,204,710,157	14 / 14
2026-08-22	$1.12	$2,204,710,157	14 / 14
2026-08-23	$1.12	$2,204,710,157	14 / 14
2026-08-24	$1.12	$2,204,710,157	14 / 14
2026-08-25	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-08-26	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-08-27	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-08-28	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-08-29	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-08-30	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-08-31	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-09-01	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-09-02	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-09-03	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-09-04	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-09-05	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-09-06	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-09-07	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-09-08	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-09-09	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-09-10	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-09-11	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-09-12	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-09-13	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-09-14	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-09-15	$1.13	$2,203,423,332	14 / 14
2026-09-16	$1.11	$2,203,804,926	14 / 15
2026-09-17	$1.11	$2,203,804,926	14 / 15
2026-09-18	$1.11	$2,203,804,926	14 / 15
2026-09-19	$1.11	$2,203,804,926	14 / 15
2026-09-20	$1.11	$2,203,804,926	14 / 15
2026-09-21	$1.11	$2,203,804,926	14 / 15
2026-09-22	$1.11	$2,203,804,926	14 / 15
2026-09-23	$1.11	$2,203,804,926	14 / 15
2026-09-24	$1.11	$2,203,804,926	14 / 15
2026-09-25	$1.11	$2,203,804,926	14 / 15
2026-09-26	$1.11	$2,203,804,926	14 / 15
2026-09-27	$1.11	$2,203,804,926	14 / 15
2026-09-28	$1.11	$2,203,804,926	14 / 15
2026-09-29	$1.11	$2,203,804,926	14 / 15
2026-09-30	$1.11	$2,203,804,926	14 / 15
2026-10-01	$1.11	$2,204,891,883	14 / 15
2026-10-02	$1.11	$2,204,891,883	14 / 15
2026-10-03	$1.11	$2,204,891,883	14 / 15
2026-10-04	$1.11	$2,204,891,883	14 / 15
2026-10-05	$1.11	$2,204,891,883	14 / 15
2026-10-06	$1.11	$2,204,891,883	14 / 15
2026-10-07	$1.11	$2,206,624,721	15 / 15
2026-10-08	$1.11	$2,209,352,317	15 / 15
2026-10-09	$1.12	$2,212,656,665	15 / 15
2026-10-10	$1.12	$2,212,656,665	15 / 15
2026-10-11	$1.13	$2,212,656,665	15 / 15
2026-10-12	$1.13	$2,212,656,665	15 / 15
2026-10-13	$1.13	$2,212,656,665	15 / 15
2026-10-14	$1.13	$2,212,656,665	15 / 15
2026-10-15	$1.13	$2,212,656,665	15 / 15
2026-10-16	$1.13	$2,212,656,665	15 / 15
2026-10-17	$1.13	$2,212,656,665	15 / 15
2026-10-18	$1.12	$2,212,768,929	15 / 16
2026-10-19	$1.12	$2,212,768,929	15 / 16
2026-10-20	$1.12	$2,212,768,929	15 / 16
2026-10-21	$1.14	$2,212,768,929	15 / 16
2026-10-22	$1.14	$2,212,768,929	15 / 16
2026-10-23	$1.14	$2,213,818,172	15 / 16
2026-10-24	$1.14	$2,213,818,172	16 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	16	4
2026-06-01	18	4
2026-07-01	18	3
2026-08-01	19	3
2026-09-01	20	2
2026-10-01	24	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 24 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 23 · prior Aug 5

$75.00 → $61.00-18.7%

OppenheimerOct 22

$50.00New observation · no comparable prior

MacquarieOct 16

$70.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 12 · prior Jul 14

$89.00 → $77.00-13.5%

BarclaysOct 8

$90.00New observation · no comparable prior

Redburn PartnersOct 6

$70.00New observation · no comparable prior

JefferiesSep 30 · prior Aug 5

$105.00 → $68.00-35.2%

$0$57.75$115.50

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash flow from operations improves above -$27.4M in Q1 2026Cash from operations: $-9.9M
Operating income improves beyond $4.7M in Q1 2026Published status: Broken
Revenue reaches about $1.73B in FY26Revenue: $458.8M

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-70.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

KTOS is a growth-focused industrial business, with revenue growth and investment in new programs central to its long-term thesis. The thesis is in watch status: recent signals improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Kratos Defense & Security Solutions

KTOS is expensive versus peers, with a sizable premium and a negative expectations gap, meaning the valuation leaves limited room for weaker execution. The priced-in assessment calls that valuation justified, and the evidence does not show a concentrated fragile setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth is strong and management raised 2026 guidance, while adjusted EBITDA was nearly flat between the first two quarters of 2026. Management expects margins to improve in 2026 and 2027, but delivery remains a watch item; earnings quality is fragile and risk is high. The next guidance update matters, despite a low estimated miss risk and two recent earnings beats.

What Kratos Defense & Security Solutions hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on sustained revenue growth, improving margins, and successful investment in facilities and programs. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strength from industrial bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from them could remove that support.