Karat Packaging, Inc. (KRT)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-10-23

$53.00-1.56%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Karat Packaging, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Gross margin	35%–37%	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	131.41M
EPS	—	0.437
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	524.91M
EPS	—	2.66
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	569.39M
EPS	—	2.27

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share	The company pays a steady quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share.	Intact	dividend cut below $0.45 per share in FY26	Dividend per share: $0.45 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$0.45 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260.45 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9e1acf48-a4fa-4172-8f48-a63b49f17e11. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve gross margin of 34-36% in 2026	A primary condition in Karat Packaging, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 34-36% margin.	Intact	gross margin falls below 33% in FY26	Gross margin: 56.61% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 34-36% margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202656.609588 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9e1acf48-a4fa-4172-8f48-a63b49f17e11. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross margin was 56.6% in 2026-Q2, boosted by 1,890 basis points from IEEPA tariff refunds. Excluding refunds, management targets 34-36% gross margin for full-year 2026. The trajectory shows strong margin performance with tariff benefits, aligned with stated goals. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase net sales by low double-digits in 2026	Karat Packaging grows sales by low double-digits in 2026.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 8% in FY26	Revenue growth: 9.93% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20269.93338 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9e1acf48-a4fa-4172-8f48-a63b49f17e11. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net sales grew 11.3% from $227.6M in first half 2025 to $253.2M in first half 2026. Management reiterated full-year 2026 net sales guidance to increase by low double-digits, indicating delivery on growth momentum. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	1	1
2026-06-01	2	1	1
2026-07-01	2	0	1
2026-08-01	2	0	1
2026-09-01	2	0	1
2026-10-01	2	0	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.45 per shareDividend per share: $0.45 per share
Achieve gross margin of 34-36% in 2026Gross margin: 56.61%
Increase net sales by low double-digits in 2026Revenue growth: 9.93%

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Karat Packaging, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

KRT is a growth-oriented business with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry, rather than a turnaround story. Its multi-year view is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and execution quality remains uneven.

What's priced into Karat Packaging, Inc.

KRT trades at a substantial premium to peers, and the evidence flags that premium as unjustified given expensive valuation and weak execution quality. The market appears to assume durable strength, leaving an expectations gap if growth or delivery falters.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term, first-half sales grew 11.3%, and management reiterated its low-double-digit full-year growth aim. Second-quarter gross margin was lifted by tariff refunds, so the full-year 34-36% goal excluding refunds is a more useful measure of underlying progress. Recent earnings beats are encouraging, but surprises have been erratic and trending down, while a guidance cut is a meaningful risk.

What Karat Packaging, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on management sustaining sales growth and reaching its margin goal without relying on tariff refunds. Near-term, a guidance cut would weaken the case, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the broader sector backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.