Kroger (KR)

NYSEConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-10-15

$63.63+1.47%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Kroger’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.53 → 5.51 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

5 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures of $3.8 to $4.0 billion for 2026	Capital spending stays strong at about $4 billion to support stores.	Intact	Capital expenditures fall below $3.8 billion in FY26	Capital expenditures: $1.144B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3.8 USD billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 18, 20261,144,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 15, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Kroger has consistently guided capital expenditures in the range of $3.8 to $4.0 billion for 2026. This guidance has been reaffirmed each quarter, indicating disciplined capital allocation with a stable trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Free cash flow of $2.7 to $2.9 billion for 2026	Profit guidance is steady with adjusted EPS of $5.10 to $5.30 and free cash flow near $2.9 billion.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $2.7 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.7 USD billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 18, 20261,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 15, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Net income grew from $609M in 2025-Q2 to $641M in 2026-Q2, and operating profit increased from $863M to $971M over the same period. Management has consistently emphasized investing in the business to drive long-term sustainable net earnings growth, and the financial results show delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Successful integration and growth from Giant Eagle acquisition	The $1.65 billion Giant Eagle deal boosts market share and growth potential.	Improving	Acquisition fails to close or significantly dilutes earnings	Acquisition announced $1.65B vs FY26 accretion target Kroger announced $1.65B Giant Eagle acquisition in July 2026. Recent news highlights sales slowdown and job cuts, but no deal failure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage margin pressure despite government pricing challenges	A supporting condition in Kroger's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain stable profit margins near current levels.	Intact	Profit margins decline significantly due to pricing pressure	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Adjusted EPS of $5.10 to $5.30 for 2026	Profit guidance is steady with adjusted EPS of $5.10 to $5.30 and free cash flow near $2.9 billion.	Intact	Adjusted EPS falls below $5.10 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Net income grew from $609M in 2025-Q2 to $641M in 2026-Q2, and operating profit increased from $863M to $971M over the same period. Management has consistently emphasized investing in the business to drive long-term sustainable net earnings growth, and the financial results show delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$5.51

$5.54 → $5.51 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$152.71B

$153.72B → $152.71B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.54	$153,717,249,180	22 / 19
2026-07-25	$5.54	$153,717,249,180	22 / 19
2026-07-26	$5.54	$153,717,249,180	22 / 19
2026-07-27	$5.53	$153,695,696,036	13 / 15
2026-07-28	$5.53	$153,695,696,036	13 / 15
2026-07-29	$5.54	$153,717,249,180	22 / 19
2026-07-30	$5.54	$153,717,249,180	22 / 19
2026-07-31	$5.53	$153,695,696,036	12 / 15
2026-08-01	$5.53	$153,695,696,036	12 / 15
2026-08-02	$5.54	$153,717,249,180	22 / 19
2026-08-03	$5.53	$153,695,696,036	12 / 15
2026-08-04	$5.53	$153,695,696,036	12 / 15
2026-08-05	$5.53	$153,695,696,036	12 / 15
2026-08-06	$5.53	$153,695,696,036	12 / 15
2026-08-07	$5.53	$153,695,696,036	12 / 15
2026-08-08	$5.53	$153,695,696,036	12 / 15
2026-08-09	$5.53	$153,695,696,036	12 / 15
2026-08-10	$5.53	$153,695,696,036	12 / 15
2026-08-12	$5.53	$153,695,696,036	12 / 15
2026-08-13	$5.53	$153,695,696,036	12 / 15
2026-08-14	$5.53	$153,695,696,036	12 / 15
2026-08-15	$5.53	$153,695,696,036	12 / 15
2026-08-16	$5.53	$153,695,696,036	12 / 15
2026-08-17	$5.53	$153,695,696,036	12 / 15
2026-08-18	$5.53	$153,695,696,036	12 / 15
2026-08-19	$5.53	$153,695,696,036	12 / 15
2026-08-20	$5.53	$153,772,486,642	12 / 15
2026-08-21	$5.53	$153,772,486,642	12 / 15
2026-08-22	$5.53	$153,772,486,642	12 / 15
2026-08-23	$5.53	$153,772,486,642	12 / 15
2026-08-24	$5.53	$153,772,486,642	12 / 15
2026-08-25	$5.53	$153,772,486,642	12 / 15
2026-08-26	$5.53	$153,772,486,642	12 / 15
2026-08-27	$5.53	$153,772,486,642	12 / 15
2026-08-28	$5.53	$153,772,486,642	12 / 15
2026-08-29	$5.53	$153,664,251,348	12 / 15
2026-08-30	$5.53	$153,664,251,348	12 / 15
2026-08-31	$5.53	$153,664,251,348	12 / 15
2026-09-01	$5.53	$153,664,251,348	12 / 15
2026-09-02	$5.53	$153,664,251,348	12 / 15
2026-09-03	$5.52	$153,793,218,145	12 / 15
2026-09-04	$5.51	$153,617,924,028	12 / 15
2026-09-05	$5.52	$153,605,524,872	12 / 15
2026-09-06	$5.52	$153,605,524,872	13 / 15
2026-09-07	$5.52	$153,605,524,872	13 / 15
2026-09-08	$5.52	$153,605,524,872	13 / 15
2026-09-09	$5.52	$153,605,524,872	13 / 15
2026-09-10	$5.51	$153,655,049,257	13 / 15
2026-09-11	$5.51	$153,666,857,692	13 / 15
2026-09-12	$5.50	$152,991,760,729	13 / 15
2026-09-13	$5.50	$152,991,760,729	13 / 15
2026-09-14	$5.53	$153,298,943,810	13 / 15
2026-09-15	$5.53	$153,298,943,810	13 / 15
2026-09-16	$5.51	$152,662,683,304	13 / 16
2026-09-17	$5.51	$152,662,683,304	14 / 17
2026-09-18	$5.51	$152,662,683,304	14 / 17
2026-09-19	$5.51	$152,662,683,304	14 / 17
2026-09-20	$5.51	$152,678,949,138	14 / 17
2026-09-21	$5.51	$152,678,949,138	14 / 17
2026-09-22	$5.51	$152,678,949,138	14 / 17
2026-09-23	$5.51	$152,678,949,138	14 / 17
2026-09-24	$5.51	$152,678,949,138	14 / 17
2026-09-25	$5.51	$152,656,679,138	14 / 17
2026-09-26	$5.51	$152,656,679,138	14 / 17
2026-09-27	$5.51	$152,656,679,138	14 / 17
2026-09-28	$5.51	$152,656,679,138	14 / 17
2026-09-29	$5.51	$152,656,679,138	13 / 16
2026-09-30	$5.51	$152,656,679,138	13 / 16
2026-10-01	$5.51	$152,599,829,138	13 / 16
2026-10-02	$5.51	$152,599,829,138	13 / 16
2026-10-03	$5.51	$152,599,829,138	13 / 16
2026-10-04	$5.51	$152,599,829,138	13 / 16
2026-10-05	$5.51	$152,599,829,138	13 / 16
2026-10-06	$5.51	$152,415,241,198	13 / 16
2026-10-07	$5.51	$152,415,241,198	13 / 16
2026-10-08	$5.51	$152,709,241,198	13 / 16
2026-10-09	$5.51	$152,709,241,198	13 / 16
2026-10-10	$5.51	$152,709,241,198	13 / 16
2026-10-11	$5.51	$152,709,241,198	13 / 16
2026-10-12	$5.51	$152,709,241,198	13 / 16
2026-10-13	$5.51	$152,709,241,198	13 / 16
2026-10-14	$5.51	$152,709,241,198	13 / 16
2026-10-15	$5.51	$152,709,241,198	13 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	13	1
2026-06-01	11	13	0
2026-07-01	11	13	0
2026-08-01	11	13	0
2026-09-01	12	13	0
2026-10-01	13	12	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BNP ParibasOct 7

$72.00New observation · no comparable prior

Melius ResearchSep 29

$80.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$44.00$88.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures of $3.8 to $4.0 billion for 2026Capital expenditures: $1.144B
Free cash flow of $2.7 to $2.9 billion for 2026Free cash flow: $1M
Manage margin pressure despite government pricing challengesQualitative condition
Adjusted EPS of $5.10 to $5.30 for 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Dec 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Kroger outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on long-term earnings growth. However, recent performance has been neutral, and the stock is currently viewed as expensive compared to peers.

What's priced into Kroger

The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that investors are not anticipating significant changes in performance. The valuation suggests that Kroger is trading at a premium compared to its peers, reflecting some confidence in its stability despite recent challenges.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on driving sustainable net earnings growth, with recent results showing some progress. However, the company has fallen behind on its sales growth targets, which could impact future performance if not addressed.

What Kroger hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and navigate potential economic headwinds, such as weakening job reports. Additionally, inflation trends could play a significant role in shaping the company's performance in the coming months.