Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-09
$359.60-2.09%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Kinsale grows net income from $109M to $139M by 2025-Q4. Cash from operations was strong at $249M in 2026-Q1. Dividends rose 47% from $0.17 to $0.25 per share. The company has a solid profit margin and steady growth.
Profit growth could slow below analyst estimates. Cash flow might weaken. Dividend increases may stall if earnings drop.
The price is about 37% below our fair value near $551. Analysts expect 3% revenue growth, which we agree with.
Breaks if: cash from operations falls below $240 million in 2026-Q1
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $0.20 in 2026-Q1
net income falls below $138 million by 2025-Q4
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
KNSL represents a durable compounder with a focus on disciplined underwriting and sustainable profitability. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial results despite a recent decline in company quality.
The market has priced in a neutral valuation, reflecting a durable premium compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market does not fully anticipate future growth potential.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management is on track with its priorities of growing net income and enhancing cash from operations. Recent financial performance has been robust, although there is a low probability of missing future estimates.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like CB, PGR, and TRV, which could influence KNSL's trajectory. Any cuts to guidance or negative earnings reports from these companies could pose risks to KNSL's performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. KNSL's recent financial performance standing fell from the 67th to the 36th percentile of its sector. This change indicates a decline in the reason to own the stock. However, the company did achieve a recent earnings beat, which provides some support.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Focus on increasing net income through disciplined underwriting and operational efficiency.
Overall, KNSL appears to be in a stable position for the next 1 to 3 years, but it is important to monitor sector developments closely. Not investment advice.