Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$364.49-6.69%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Kinsale Capital Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

21.67 → 21.82 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	369.75M
EPS	—	5.694
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	478.47M
EPS	—	5.076
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.63B
EPS	—	21.627
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.63B
EPS	—	21.824

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain cash from operations at or above $248.9 million in 2026-Q1	Cash from operations was strong at $249M in 2026-Q1.	Intact	cash from operations falls below $240 million in 2026-Q1	Cash from operations: $241.907M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=248.9 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 23, 2026241,907,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase dividend per share to at least $0.25 by 2026-Q1	Dividends rose 47% from $0.17 to $0.25 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.20 in 2026-Q1	Dividend per share: $0.25 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.25 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Oct 22, 20260.25 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fa9de590-3a3f-4abc-82f6-e6383bcedd71. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase net income to at least $138.6 million by 2025-Q4	Kinsale grows net income from $109M to $139M by 2025-Q4.	Intact	net income falls below $138 million by 2025-Q4	Net income: $98.129M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=138.6 million USD. The stored target says 2025-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Oct 22, 202698,129,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fa9de590-3a3f-4abc-82f6-e6383bcedd71. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$21.82

$21.69 → $21.82 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.63B

$2.00B → $1.63B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$21.69	$1,997,052,150	11 / 7
2026-07-25	$21.69	$1,997,052,150	11 / 7
2026-07-26	$21.69	$1,997,052,150	11 / 7
2026-07-27	$21.61	$1,981,272,380	11 / 8
2026-07-28	$21.58	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-07-29	$21.58	$1,983,296,010	11 / 8
2026-07-30	$21.58	$1,983,296,010	11 / 8
2026-07-31	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-01	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-02	$21.65	$1,982,110,210	11 / 8
2026-08-03	$21.65	$1,982,110,210	11 / 8
2026-08-04	$21.65	$1,982,110,210	11 / 8
2026-08-05	$21.65	$1,982,110,210	11 / 8
2026-08-06	$21.65	$1,982,110,210	11 / 8
2026-08-07	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-08	$21.65	$1,982,110,210	11 / 8
2026-08-09	$21.65	$1,982,110,210	11 / 8
2026-08-10	$21.65	$1,982,110,210	11 / 8
2026-08-12	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-13	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-14	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-15	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-16	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-17	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-18	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-19	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-20	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-21	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-22	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-23	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-24	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-25	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-26	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-27	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-28	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-29	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-30	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-08-31	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-01	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-02	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-03	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-04	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-05	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-06	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-07	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-08	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-09	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-10	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-11	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-12	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-13	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-14	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-15	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-16	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-17	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-18	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-19	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-20	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-21	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-22	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-23	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-24	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-25	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-26	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-27	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-28	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-29	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-09-30	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-10-01	$21.67	$1,654,452,025	7 / 6
2026-10-02	$21.71	$1,656,604,100	7 / 6
2026-10-03	$21.70	$1,656,604,100	7 / 6
2026-10-04	$21.70	$1,656,604,100	7 / 6
2026-10-05	$21.70	$1,656,604,100	7 / 6
2026-10-06	$21.70	$1,656,604,100	7 / 6
2026-10-07	$21.67	$1,656,604,100	7 / 6
2026-10-08	$21.69	$1,656,604,100	7 / 6
2026-10-09	$21.69	$1,656,604,100	7 / 6
2026-10-10	$21.68	$1,656,604,100	8 / 6
2026-10-11	$21.68	$1,656,604,100	8 / 6
2026-10-12	$21.68	$1,656,604,100	8 / 6
2026-10-13	$21.72	$1,650,054,100	8 / 6
2026-10-14	$21.68	$1,650,054,100	8 / 6
2026-10-15	$21.68	$1,650,054,100	8 / 6
2026-10-16	$21.68	$1,650,054,100	8 / 6
2026-10-17	$21.68	$1,650,054,100	8 / 6
2026-10-18	$21.68	$1,650,054,100	8 / 6
2026-10-19	$21.68	$1,650,054,100	8 / 6
2026-10-20	$21.68	$1,650,054,100	8 / 6
2026-10-21	$21.68	$1,650,054,100	8 / 6
2026-10-22	$21.68	$1,650,054,100	8 / 6
2026-10-23	$21.68	$1,650,054,100	8 / 6
2026-10-24	$21.82	$1,627,709,680	8 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	9	2
2026-06-01	1	9	2
2026-07-01	1	9	2
2026-08-01	1	9	2
2026-09-01	1	9	2
2026-10-01	1	9	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain cash from operations at or above $248.9 million in 2026-Q1Cash from operations: $241.907M
Increase dividend per share to at least $0.25 by 2026-Q1Dividend per share: $0.25 per share
Increase net income to at least $138.6 million by 2025-Q4Net income: $98.129M

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Kinsale Capital Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

KNSL is a quality-focused insurer whose multi-year view depends on sustained underwriting profits and earnings growth. The thesis is intact, but recent momentum and quality measures softened after the latest results, and management is rated neutral.

What's priced into Kinsale Capital Group

The evidence describes KNSL as carrying a durable premium of 2.3 times versus peers, with the valuation tag marked justified and low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of what the evidence supports, though confidence in that estimate is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

For the multi-year view, recent results support continued earnings growth: nine-month operating earnings and diluted operating earnings per share rose, and underwriting income increased. Near term, the third-quarter combined ratio was slightly worse than a year earlier, while the sector backdrop is a headwind and a CFO transition adds a monitoring point.

What Kinsale Capital Group hinges on

The thesis depends on disciplined underwriting and cost control continuing to support earnings, alongside ongoing capital returns. A guidance cut or falling rates would be unfavorable signals; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.