KLA Corporation (KLAC)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$165.74-5.00%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge KLA Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.69 → 6.81 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase quarterly dividend to $2.30 per share	The company raised its quarterly dividend 21% to $2.30 per share.	Intact	dividend cut or no increase beyond $2.30 in 2026-Q3	Dividend per share: $1.90 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $2.30 per share. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Apr 30, 20261.9 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Mar 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d410461a-473b-45a6-bd09-cad7e19ffda7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain gross margin near 60.7%	It aims for strong gross margins near 60.7%.	Broken	gross margin falls below 59%	Gross margin: 61.36% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: 60.72%. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 6, 202661.364693 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. GAAP gross margin guidance consistently targets around 60.6% to 62.6%. Management maintains focus on margin discipline, and guidance ranges indicate stable margin expectations. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Sustain revenue near $3.58B in Q4 FY2026	A primary condition in KLA Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.58B.	Under Pressure	revenue falls below $3.38B in 2026-Q4	Revenue: $3.658B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.58B. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 6, 20263,657,556,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Execute $7 billion stock repurchase authorization	It also authorized $7 billion for stock buybacks, showing strong capital returns.	Intact	repurchase authorization withdrawn or materially delayed	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$6.81

$6.42 → $6.81 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$21.85B

$20.61B → $21.85B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.42	$20,607,940,594	10 / 18
2026-07-25	$6.42	$20,607,940,594	10 / 18
2026-07-26	$6.42	$20,607,940,594	10 / 18
2026-07-27	$6.42	$20,607,940,594	10 / 18
2026-07-28	$6.42	$20,607,940,594	10 / 18
2026-07-29	$6.66	$21,195,486,489	7 / 11
2026-07-30	$6.67	$21,286,534,207	8 / 12
2026-07-31	$6.54	$20,979,437,890	22 / 21
2026-08-01	$6.62	$21,286,532,685	13 / 15
2026-08-02	$6.55	$20,994,008,900	23 / 22
2026-08-03	$6.55	$20,994,008,900	23 / 22
2026-08-04	$6.55	$20,994,008,900	23 / 22
2026-08-05	$6.55	$20,994,008,900	23 / 22
2026-08-06	$6.62	$21,286,532,685	13 / 15
2026-08-07	$6.63	$21,546,136,228	14 / 16
2026-08-08	$6.63	$21,546,136,228	14 / 16
2026-08-09	$6.63	$21,546,136,228	14 / 16
2026-08-10	$6.63	$21,546,136,228	14 / 16
2026-08-12	$6.55	$20,994,008,900	23 / 22
2026-08-13	$6.63	$21,546,136,228	14 / 16
2026-08-14	$6.63	$21,546,136,228	14 / 16
2026-08-15	$6.63	$21,546,136,228	14 / 16
2026-08-16	$6.63	$21,546,136,228	14 / 16
2026-08-17	$6.63	$21,546,136,228	14 / 16
2026-08-18	$6.63	$21,546,136,228	14 / 16
2026-08-19	$6.63	$21,546,136,228	14 / 16
2026-08-20	$6.66	$21,619,035,486	14 / 16
2026-08-21	$6.66	$21,619,035,486	14 / 16
2026-08-22	$6.66	$21,619,035,486	14 / 16
2026-08-23	$6.66	$21,619,035,486	14 / 16
2026-08-24	$6.66	$21,619,035,486	14 / 16
2026-08-25	$6.66	$21,619,035,486	14 / 16
2026-08-26	$6.66	$21,619,035,486	14 / 16
2026-08-27	$6.66	$21,619,035,486	14 / 16
2026-08-28	$6.66	$21,619,035,486	14 / 16
2026-08-29	$6.66	$21,619,035,486	13 / 16
2026-08-30	$6.66	$21,619,035,486	13 / 16
2026-08-31	$6.66	$21,619,035,486	13 / 16
2026-09-01	$6.66	$21,619,035,486	13 / 16
2026-09-02	$6.66	$21,619,035,486	13 / 16
2026-09-03	$6.68	$21,659,824,960	13 / 16
2026-09-04	$6.68	$21,659,824,960	13 / 16
2026-09-05	$6.68	$21,659,824,960	13 / 16
2026-09-06	$6.68	$21,659,824,960	13 / 16
2026-09-07	$6.68	$21,659,824,960	13 / 16
2026-09-08	$6.68	$21,659,824,960	13 / 16
2026-09-09	$6.68	$21,659,824,960	13 / 16
2026-09-10	$6.69	$21,704,351,275	14 / 16
2026-09-11	$6.69	$21,704,351,275	14 / 16
2026-09-12	$6.69	$21,704,351,275	14 / 16
2026-09-13	$6.69	$21,704,351,275	14 / 16
2026-09-14	$6.69	$21,704,351,275	14 / 16
2026-09-15	$6.69	$21,704,351,275	14 / 16
2026-09-16	$6.69	$21,704,351,275	14 / 16
2026-09-17	$6.69	$21,704,351,275	14 / 16
2026-09-18	$6.69	$21,704,351,275	14 / 16
2026-09-19	$6.69	$21,704,351,275	14 / 16
2026-09-20	$6.69	$21,704,351,275	14 / 16
2026-09-21	$6.69	$21,704,351,275	14 / 16
2026-09-22	$6.69	$21,704,351,275	14 / 16
2026-09-23	$6.74	$21,704,346,754	14 / 16
2026-09-24	$6.74	$21,704,346,754	14 / 16
2026-09-25	$6.74	$21,704,346,754	14 / 16
2026-09-26	$6.76	$21,766,013,949	14 / 16
2026-09-27	$6.76	$21,766,013,949	14 / 16
2026-09-28	$6.76	$21,766,013,949	14 / 16
2026-09-29	$6.76	$21,766,013,949	14 / 16
2026-09-30	$6.76	$21,766,013,949	14 / 16
2026-10-01	$6.76	$21,766,013,949	14 / 16
2026-10-02	$6.76	$21,766,018,722	14 / 16
2026-10-03	$6.76	$21,766,018,722	14 / 16
2026-10-04	$6.76	$21,766,018,722	14 / 16
2026-10-05	$6.76	$21,766,018,722	14 / 16
2026-10-06	$6.80	$21,847,096,969	14 / 16
2026-10-07	$6.80	$21,847,096,969	14 / 16
2026-10-08	$6.80	$21,847,096,969	14 / 16
2026-10-09	$6.80	$21,817,449,760	14 / 16
2026-10-10	$6.80	$21,817,449,760	14 / 16
2026-10-11	$6.80	$21,817,502,391	14 / 16
2026-10-12	$6.80	$21,817,502,391	14 / 16
2026-10-13	$6.80	$21,817,502,391	14 / 16
2026-10-14	$6.81	$21,849,979,015	14 / 16
2026-10-15	$6.81	$21,849,979,015	14 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	19	10	1
2026-06-01	19	11	2
2026-07-01	18	11	2
2026-08-01	19	11	1
2026-09-01	19	10	0
2026-10-01	20	10	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 6 · prior Jul 29

$253.00 → $227.00-10.3%

$0$139.15$278.30

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase quarterly dividend to $2.30 per shareDividend per share: $1.90 per share
Maintain gross margin near 60.7%Published status: Broken
Sustain revenue near $3.58B in Q4 FY2026Published status: Under Pressure
Execute $7 billion stock repurchase authorizationDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-44.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

KLA Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

KLAC represents a durable compounder focused on growth through AI infrastructure and advanced packaging. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance and consistent management priorities.

What's priced into KLA Corporation

The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, suggesting that expectations are somewhat aligned with the company's performance. Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, indicating that the stock may not be reflecting the full potential of its growth trajectory.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are expected to remain strong, driven by management's focus on growth areas and consistent dividend increases. However, there is a near-term risk of guidance cuts, which could negatively impact sentiment.

What KLA Corporation hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the performance of key sector peers like NVDA, TSM, and AVGO. Positive momentum in these areas could bolster KLAC's growth outlook.