KKR & Co. (KKR)

NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-15

$86.21-1.62%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge KKR & Co.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.39 → 7.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful integration of Arctos Partners acquisition	KKR is expanding with the Arctos acquisition.	Intact	Acquisition fails to contribute or causes losses	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase annual dividend to $0.78 per share	The firm grew earnings per share by 10% last quarter.	Intact	annual dividend falls below $0.74	Dividend per share: $0.20 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.78 annualized dividend. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.195 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 80d3539a-2123-4311-8e88-918b0b142130. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Earnings per share growth of at least 10% YoY	The firm grew earnings per share by 10% last quarter.	Intact	EPS growth falls below 5% YoY	Diluted EPS growth: 40% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 10% YoY EPS growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202640 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Strategic Holdings Operating Earnings exceed $350 million	It expects over $350 million in Strategic Holdings earnings in 2026.	Intact	earnings fall below $300 million	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.18

$7.34 → $7.18 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$13.94B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.34	$13,936,340,318	10 / 5
2026-07-25	$7.34	$13,936,340,318	10 / 5
2026-07-26	$7.35	$12,284,556,980	22 / 6
2026-07-27	$7.30	$13,936,340,318	11 / 5
2026-07-28	$7.35	$12,284,556,980	22 / 6
2026-07-29	$7.30	$13,936,340,318	11 / 5
2026-07-30	$7.30	$13,936,340,318	11 / 5
2026-07-31	$7.35	$12,284,556,980	22 / 6
2026-08-01	$7.31	$13,639,412,364	11 / 5
2026-08-02	$7.38	$12,385,773,780	22 / 6
2026-08-03	$7.38	$12,385,773,780	22 / 6
2026-08-04	$7.38	$12,385,773,780	22 / 6
2026-08-05	$7.33	$12,475,781,218	11 / 5
2026-08-06	$7.33	$12,475,781,218	11 / 5
2026-08-07	$7.33	$12,475,781,218	11 / 5
2026-08-08	$7.39	$12,385,773,780	22 / 6
2026-08-09	$7.33	$12,475,781,218	11 / 5
2026-08-10	$7.33	$12,475,781,218	11 / 5
2026-08-12	$7.39	$12,475,773,780	22 / 6
2026-08-13	$7.33	$12,475,781,218	11 / 5
2026-08-14	$7.33	$12,475,781,218	11 / 5
2026-08-15	$7.33	$12,475,781,218	11 / 5
2026-08-16	$7.33	$12,475,781,218	11 / 5
2026-08-17	$7.33	$12,475,781,218	11 / 5
2026-08-18	$7.33	$12,475,781,218	11 / 5
2026-08-19	$7.33	$12,475,781,218	11 / 5
2026-08-20	$7.40	$12,473,857,111	11 / 5
2026-08-21	$7.40	$12,473,857,111	11 / 5
2026-08-22	$7.40	$12,473,857,111	11 / 5
2026-08-23	$7.40	$12,473,857,111	11 / 5
2026-08-24	$7.40	$12,473,857,111	11 / 5
2026-08-25	$7.40	$12,473,857,111	11 / 5
2026-08-26	$7.40	$12,473,857,111	11 / 5
2026-08-27	$7.40	$12,473,857,111	11 / 5
2026-08-28	$7.40	$12,473,857,111	11 / 5
2026-08-29	$7.40	$12,473,857,111	11 / 5
2026-08-30	$7.40	$12,473,857,111	11 / 5
2026-08-31	$7.40	$12,473,857,111	11 / 5
2026-09-01	$7.40	$12,473,857,111	11 / 5
2026-09-02	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	10 / 5
2026-09-03	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	10 / 5
2026-09-04	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-05	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-06	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-07	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-08	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-09	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-10	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-11	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-12	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-13	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-14	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-15	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-16	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-17	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-18	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-19	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-20	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-21	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-22	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-23	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-24	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-25	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-26	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-27	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-28	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-29	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-09-30	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-10-01	$7.39	$12,473,857,111	9 / 5
2026-10-02	$7.32	$12,358,752,610	9 / 5
2026-10-03	$7.31	$12,338,828,524	9 / 5
2026-10-04	$7.31	$12,338,828,524	9 / 5
2026-10-05	$7.29	$12,338,828,524	9 / 5
2026-10-06	$7.28	$12,338,828,524	9 / 5
2026-10-07	$7.26	$12,361,599,953	9 / 5
2026-10-08	$7.24	$12,361,599,953	8 / 5
2026-10-09	$7.24	$12,361,599,953	8 / 5
2026-10-10	$7.24	$12,361,599,953	8 / 5
2026-10-11	$7.24	$12,421,199,953	8 / 5
2026-10-12	$7.24	$12,421,199,953	8 / 5
2026-10-13	$7.23	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-14	$7.18	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-15	$7.18	Unavailable	7 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	19	3
2026-06-01	19	3
2026-07-01	19	3
2026-08-01	19	3
2026-09-01	20	3
2026-10-01	20	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 13 · prior Sep 1

$123.00 → $122.00-0.8%

BarclaysOct 8 · prior Jul 31

$135.00 → $130.00-3.7%

Wells FargoOct 1

$97.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$74.25$148.50

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Successful integration of Arctos Partners acquisitionQualitative condition
Increase annual dividend to $0.78 per shareDividend per share: $0.20 per share
Earnings per share growth of at least 10% YoYDiluted EPS growth: 40%
Strategic Holdings Operating Earnings exceed $350 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

KKR & Co. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

KKR represents a complex investment in the financial sector, characterized by a mix of robust earnings quality and volatile management. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has not met industry standards, but the company is actively pursuing strategic initiatives.

What's priced into KKR & Co.

The market appears to have a low expectations gap, suggesting that KKR's valuation may not fully reflect its recent challenges and the potential for further negative developments. The current valuation indicates some fragility, but no immediate threats have triggered significant market reactions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentally, KKR's performance is mixed, with management making progress on some strategic priorities, such as the acquisition of Arctos Partners. However, recent earnings results have been neutral, and the company operates in a high-risk environment, which could lead to volatility.

What KKR & Co. hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on several key factors, including the company's ability to integrate recent acquisitions, the performance of sector peers, and the potential impact of interest rate changes on the financial sector. Guidance updates from management will also be crucial.