Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-10-15

$34.62+1.29%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Keurig Dr Pepper’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.53 → 2.53 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.23 per share	The company maintains a $0.23 quarterly dividend and controls costs despite inflation.	Intact	dividend cut or suspension	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating cash flow increased from $742M in first half 2024 to nearly $2B in 2025 full year, with free cash flow of $1.52B. Management announced $7B strategic investments to reduce net leverage to ~4.6x at acquisition close and targets investment grade profiles at separation. The trajectory shows delivering disciplined capital allocation. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve EPS near $2.2 in mid-2026	Profit margins remain stable with EPS guidance near $2.2 for mid-2026.	Broken	EPS falls below $2.0 in 2026-Q2	Diluted EPS: $0.04 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $2.2. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Aug 10, 20260.04 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3fc0629b-721f-4ad2-adcb-0bf3515e80d3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete integration of JDE Peet's and achieve global coffee leadership	Integration of JDE Peet's supports global coffee leadership.	Improving	integration delays or failure to separate entities by end 2026	Qualitative: Leadership hire & spinoff progress vs End-2026 target KDP hired Kimberly-Clark President Torres to lead the coffee spinoff, with multiple reports confirming the separation strategy is advancing. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain mid-single-digit net sales growth to reach ~$26.15B in 2026	A primary condition in Keurig Dr Pepper's published investment case. The stated target is ~$26.15B revenue.	Intact	revenue falls below $25B in FY26	Revenue: $7.309B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$26.15B revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 20267,309,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3fc0629b-721f-4ad2-adcb-0bf3515e80d3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $15.35B in 2024 to $16.6B in 2025 (+8.2%), with 2026 guidance targeting $25.9-$26.4B including JDE Peet's. Management consistently reaffirmed mid-single-digit net sales growth, and the trajectory shows delivering growth with acquisition contribution. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.53

$2.53 → $2.53 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$29.94B

$29.86B → $29.94B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.53	$29,864,170,193	10 / 12
2026-07-25	$2.53	$29,866,711,450	18 / 16
2026-07-26	$2.53	$29,862,670,193	10 / 12
2026-07-27	$2.53	$29,862,670,193	10 / 12
2026-07-28	$2.53	$29,866,711,450	18 / 16
2026-07-29	$2.53	$29,862,670,193	10 / 12
2026-07-30	$2.53	$29,862,670,193	10 / 12
2026-07-31	$2.53	$29,862,670,193	10 / 12
2026-08-01	$2.53	$29,862,670,193	10 / 12
2026-08-02	$2.53	$29,866,711,450	18 / 16
2026-08-03	$2.53	$29,862,670,193	10 / 12
2026-08-04	$2.53	$29,866,711,450	18 / 16
2026-08-05	$2.53	$29,866,711,450	18 / 16
2026-08-06	$2.53	$29,862,670,193	10 / 12
2026-08-07	$2.53	$29,913,397,375	10 / 12
2026-08-08	$2.53	$29,913,397,375	10 / 12
2026-08-09	$2.53	$29,884,972,320	18 / 16
2026-08-10	$2.53	$29,884,972,320	18 / 16
2026-08-12	$2.54	$29,932,252,560	17 / 16
2026-08-13	$2.54	$29,932,252,560	17 / 16
2026-08-14	$2.53	$29,913,397,375	10 / 12
2026-08-15	$2.53	$29,913,397,375	10 / 12
2026-08-16	$2.53	$29,913,397,375	10 / 12
2026-08-17	$2.53	$29,913,397,375	10 / 12
2026-08-18	$2.53	$29,913,397,375	10 / 12
2026-08-19	$2.53	$29,913,397,375	10 / 12
2026-08-20	$2.53	$29,958,467,902	10 / 12
2026-08-21	$2.53	$29,960,136,215	10 / 12
2026-08-22	$2.53	$29,957,121,571	11 / 13
2026-08-23	$2.53	$29,957,121,571	11 / 13
2026-08-24	$2.53	$29,957,121,571	11 / 13
2026-08-25	$2.53	$29,957,121,571	11 / 13
2026-08-26	$2.53	$29,957,121,571	11 / 13
2026-08-27	$2.53	$29,957,121,571	11 / 13
2026-08-28	$2.53	$29,957,121,571	11 / 13
2026-08-29	$2.53	$29,957,121,571	11 / 13
2026-08-30	$2.53	$29,957,121,571	11 / 13
2026-08-31	$2.53	$29,957,121,571	11 / 13
2026-09-01	$2.53	$29,957,121,571	11 / 13
2026-09-02	$2.53	$29,957,121,571	11 / 13
2026-09-03	$2.53	$29,957,417,777	11 / 13
2026-09-04	$2.53	$29,957,397,657	11 / 13
2026-09-05	$2.53	$29,957,397,657	11 / 13
2026-09-06	$2.53	$29,957,397,657	11 / 13
2026-09-07	$2.53	$29,957,397,657	11 / 13
2026-09-08	$2.53	$29,957,397,657	11 / 13
2026-09-09	$2.53	$29,957,397,657	11 / 13
2026-09-10	$2.53	$29,957,397,657	11 / 13
2026-09-11	$2.53	$29,957,376,299	11 / 13
2026-09-12	$2.53	$29,957,376,299	11 / 13
2026-09-13	$2.53	$29,957,376,299	11 / 13
2026-09-14	$2.53	$29,957,376,299	11 / 13
2026-09-15	$2.53	$29,957,376,299	11 / 13
2026-09-16	$2.53	$29,957,396,419	11 / 13
2026-09-17	$2.53	$29,957,396,419	11 / 13
2026-09-18	$2.53	$29,957,396,419	11 / 13
2026-09-19	$2.53	$29,957,396,419	11 / 13
2026-09-20	$2.53	$29,957,396,419	11 / 13
2026-09-21	$2.53	$29,957,396,419	11 / 13
2026-09-22	$2.53	$29,957,396,419	11 / 13
2026-09-23	$2.53	$29,957,396,419	11 / 13
2026-09-24	$2.53	$29,957,396,419	11 / 13
2026-09-25	$2.53	$29,957,396,419	11 / 13
2026-09-26	$2.53	$29,957,563,085	11 / 13
2026-09-27	$2.53	$29,957,563,085	11 / 13
2026-09-28	$2.53	$29,957,563,085	11 / 13
2026-09-29	$2.53	$29,957,563,085	11 / 13
2026-09-30	$2.53	$29,957,563,085	11 / 13
2026-10-01	$2.53	$29,957,563,085	11 / 13
2026-10-02	$2.53	$29,957,296,419	11 / 13
2026-10-03	$2.53	$29,957,298,752	11 / 13
2026-10-04	$2.53	$29,957,298,752	11 / 13
2026-10-05	$2.53	$29,957,298,752	11 / 13
2026-10-06	$2.53	$29,954,363,085	11 / 13
2026-10-07	$2.53	$29,953,096,419	11 / 13
2026-10-08	$2.53	$29,953,096,419	11 / 13
2026-10-09	$2.53	$29,953,096,419	11 / 13
2026-10-10	$2.53	$29,953,096,419	11 / 13
2026-10-11	$2.53	$29,953,096,419	11 / 13
2026-10-12	$2.53	$29,953,096,419	11 / 13
2026-10-13	$2.53	$29,953,096,419	11 / 13
2026-10-14	$2.53	$29,939,296,419	11 / 13
2026-10-15	$2.53	$29,939,296,419	11 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	7
2026-06-01	11	8
2026-07-01	11	7
2026-08-01	13	7
2026-09-01	13	5
2026-10-01	13	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.23 per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve EPS near $2.2 in mid-2026Published status: Broken
Sustain mid-single-digit net sales growth to reach ~$26.15B in 2026Revenue: $7.309B

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Keurig Dr Pepper outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent financial performance that remains strong relative to its industry.

What's priced into Keurig Dr Pepper

The market seems to have priced in a level of fragility due to weak execution quality, but not fully reflecting the expensive valuation compared to peers. There is a notable expectations gap, indicating that the stock may be seen as justified despite its premium valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with revenue growth and disciplined capital allocation, which should support fundamentals in the near term. However, the fragile earnings quality and volatile management could pose challenges.

What Keurig Dr Pepper hinges on

Key factors for KDP's future include the successful integration and separation of JDE Peet's, as well as external economic conditions like inflation and job market trends. Any guidance cuts or continued weakness in the job market could negatively impact the stock.