Kyndryl (KD)

NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$14.76-2.89%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Kyndryl’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	—	3.79B
EPS	—	0.767
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	14.79B
EPS	—	1.855
Free cash flow	$400M–$500M	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	14.78B
EPS	—	2.492

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase cash flow from operations	It raised cash flow from operations to $498 million in Q4 2026.	Broken	cash flow from operations falls below $300 million in 2026-Q4	Cash from operations: $-310M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=$498 million cash flow from operations in 2026-Q4. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 2026-310,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Strengthen leadership with new CFO and counsel	New CFO appointment may improve financial discipline.	Intact	CFO departs before 2026-Q4 or governance issues arise	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q3. The company announced appointments of Ellen Johnson as CFO and Andrew Bonzani as General Counsel in July 2026 to strengthen leadership. This is a recent development with no prior quarters stating this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Grow hyperscaler and AI-related revenue	A primary condition in Kyndryl's published investment case. The stated target is >=59% YoY hyperscaler revenue growth in FY26.	Broken	hyperscaler revenue growth falls below 20% YoY in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Kyndryl Consult revenue grew from 18% year-over-year in 2025-Q4 to 10% in 2026-Q2, with hyperscaler-related revenue growing 59% in 2025-Q4 and 34% in 2026-Q2. AI capabilities expanded with new agentic AI services announced. The trajectory shows delivering growth in AI and cloud services with strong revenue increases and expanding AI offerings. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain disciplined share repurchases	A supporting condition in Kyndryl's published investment case. The stated target is repurchase >=11 million shares in FY26.	Intact	share repurchases fall below 5 million shares in FY26	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Share repurchases totaled 5.0 million shares for $64 million in 2026-Q2, with cumulative repurchases since November 2024 reaching 19.3 million shares for $462 million, representing 8% of shares outstanding. The steady repurchase activity indicates delivering on disciplined capital allocation. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPSUnavailable

$2.57 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2028 revenueUnavailable

$14.99B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.57	$14,993,811,250	6 / 6
2026-07-25	$2.57	$14,993,811,250	6 / 6
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$14,993,744,583	3 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$14,993,744,583	3 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$14,993,744,583	3 / 5
2026-07-29	$2.57	$14,993,811,250	6 / 6
2026-07-30	$2.57	$14,993,811,250	6 / 6
2026-07-31	$2.59	$14,996,861,250	6 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	$2.59	$14,996,861,250	6 / 6
2026-08-03	$2.59	$14,996,861,250	6 / 6
2026-08-04	$2.59	$14,996,861,250	6 / 6
2026-08-05	$2.56	$14,922,830,220	6 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-09	$2.53	$14,785,163,560	6 / 6
2026-08-10	$2.53	$14,785,163,560	6 / 6
2026-08-12	$2.48	$14,788,571,460	6 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	6	1
2026-06-01	0	6	1
2026-07-01	0	5	1
2026-08-01	0	5	1
2026-09-01	0	5	1
2026-10-01	0	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase cash flow from operationsPublished status: Broken
Strengthen leadership with new CFO and counselDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Grow hyperscaler and AI-related revenuePublished status: Broken
Maintain disciplined share repurchasesRequired source inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-63.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Kyndryl outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

KD is a higher-risk services business with a growth component, rather than a clearly durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent financial performance and expanding AI and cloud offerings, but confidence is tempered by fragile earnings quality and consecutive earnings misses.

What's priced into Kyndryl

Valuation is close to peers, at a modest premium, and the expectations gap is small. The evidence characterizes the current pricing as justified, not as a clear bargain or a case of excessive expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, AI and cloud growth and planned operating cost savings could support performance if management delivers. Near term, repeated earnings misses and a 40% miss probability make the next report a meaningful risk; management reaffirmed guidance as of August 5, 2026. Workforce rebalancing is ongoing, with further charges planned before expected savings, so execution remains important.

What Kyndryl hinges on

The thesis depends on continued growth in AI and cloud services and on turning workforce changes into the planned cost savings. A guidance cut would weaken the near-term picture, while rate cuts or stronger results and guidance from sector peers could provide a more supportive backdrop.