JERSEY MIKE'S SUBS INC (JMKE)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-16

$17.95-2.02%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 16, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge JERSEY MIKE'S SUBS INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effectively manage M&A activity	A supporting condition in JERSEY MIKE'S SUBS INC's published investment case. The stated target is Manage M&A effectively with no negative impact on operations.	Intact	Negative M&A news impacts stock price significantly	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Recent material events in 2026-Q3 disclose M&A activity including a material definitive agreement and potential changes in control. No financial metrics are available to assess impact, so trajectory is limited progress based on disclosed events. Delivery assessment Oct 16, 2026
Maintain profit margins near 10% in FY26	Profit margins are expected to stabilize as the company manages costs.	Intact	Profit margins fall below 8% in FY26	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Net margin from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue of approximately $795 million in FY26	A primary condition in JERSEY MIKE'S SUBS INC's published investment case. The stated target is =$795 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $750 million in FY26	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Revenue from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · alphavantage

FY2027 EPS$0.54

$0.77 → $0.54 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.87B

$0.87B → $0.87B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · alphavantage
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-09-28	$0.77	$868,880,530	14 / 25
2026-09-29	$0.78	$869,042,220	13 / 24
2026-09-30	$0.78	$869,042,220	13 / 24
2026-10-01	$0.78	$869,042,220	13 / 24
2026-10-02	$0.78	$869,042,220	13 / 24
2026-10-03	$0.54	$869,042,220	9 / 24
2026-10-04	$0.54	$869,042,220	9 / 24
2026-10-05	$0.54	$869,042,220	9 / 24
2026-10-06	$0.54	$869,042,220	9 / 24
2026-10-07	$0.54	$869,042,220	9 / 24
2026-10-08	$0.54	$869,042,220	9 / 24
2026-10-09	$0.54	$869,042,220	9 / 24
2026-10-10	$0.54	$869,042,220	9 / 24
2026-10-11	$0.54	$869,042,220	9 / 24
2026-10-12	$0.54	$869,042,220	9 / 24
2026-10-13	$0.54	$869,042,220	9 / 24
2026-10-14	$0.54	$869,042,220	9 / 24
2026-10-15	$0.54	$869,042,220	9 / 24

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-07-01	1	0	0
2026-08-01	21	4	1
2026-09-01	21	4	2
2026-10-01	20	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 17–Oct 16 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSSep 29 · prior Aug 24

$30.00 → $24.00-20.0%

$0$16.50$33.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 17, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Effectively manage M&A activityQualitative condition
Maintain profit margins near 10% in FY26Required source inputs unavailable
Achieve revenue of approximately $795 million in FY26Required source inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

JERSEY MIKE'S SUBS INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity within the Consumer Discretionary sector. The current thesis state is characterized by low confidence due to recent earnings misses and mixed management signals.

What's priced into JERSEY MIKE'S SUBS INC

The market appears to have low fragility regarding JMKE, indicating that it does not currently reflect significant risks. However, there is a medium level of confidence in the valuation model, suggesting expectations are cautious.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has prioritized addressing earnings performance after a recent miss, but without detailed financial metrics, the trajectory remains unclear. Near-term risks are moderate, with a 38% probability of missing earnings again, though this is considered low risk overall.

What JERSEY MIKE'S SUBS INC hinges on

The future performance of JMKE hinges on broader sector trends, particularly the earnings results of major players like MCD, SBUX, and CMG. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support JMKE, but any negative guidance from them could pose a risk.

Bottom line

In summary, JMKE's outlook over the next 1 to 3 years is clouded by sector challenges and management execution. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.