John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$67.06-1.77%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-25
Revenue	—	322.43M
EPS	—	1.342
Annual ending 2027-06-25
Revenue	—	1.2B
EPS	—	5.36
Annual ending 2028-06-25
Revenue	—	1.24B
EPS	—	5.41

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase dividend per share	Profit per share beat estimates by 23%.	Intact	Dividend per share remains below $1.0 by end of 2026	Dividend per share: $1.00 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $1.5 by end of 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Apr 29, 20261 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Dec 25, 2025 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a94b6a69-e03b-4314-915f-0eb61f879e96. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 4 quarters. Management increased the annual dividend by 5.6% to $0.95 per share and declared multiple special dividends totaling $3.55 per share in 2026. This reflects consistent capital return to shareholders and disciplined capital allocation, delivering on stated commitments. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain strong EPS growth	A primary condition in John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $1.53 next quarter.	Broken	EPS falls below $1.53 next quarter	Diluted EPS: $0.70 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $1.53 next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 19, 20260.7 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 25, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Diluted EPS increased 4.6% to $5.26 for full year 2026 despite a Q4 decline to $0.71 from $1.59 in Q1. Management emphasized disciplined cost management and pricing as drivers. The trajectory shows mixed quarterly EPS but overall full-year growth, consistent with management's statements. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain revenue growth near recent levels	A primary condition in John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth >= 6% YoY next 4 quarters.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year	Revenue growth: 4.22% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Revenue growth >= 6% YoY next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 19, 20264.221112 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 25, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Diluted EPS increased 4.6% to $5.26 for full year 2026 despite a Q4 decline to $0.71 from $1.59 in Q1. Management emphasized disciplined cost management and pricing as drivers. The trajectory shows mixed quarterly EPS but overall full-year growth, consistent with management's statements. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-25 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	0
2026-06-01	1	0
2026-07-01	1	1
2026-08-01	2	1
2026-09-01	2	0
2026-10-01	2	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase dividend per shareDividend per share: $1.00 per share
Maintain strong EPS growthPublished status: Broken
Sustain revenue growth near recent levelsPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

JBSS is a consumer staples business with a multi-year thesis based on earnings growth, cost discipline, and expansion in contract manufacturing. The thesis is intact, though its signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed after a recent earnings miss and CEO transition news.

What's priced into John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.

JBSS is tagged as stretched, and its valuation is about in line with peers, with expectations broadly aligned with the model. The evidence does not show a high level of valuation fragility, but it also gives limited detail on the specific expectations already reflected in the valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

For the multi-year view, full-year 2026 diluted EPS grew 4.6%, while quarterly results were uneven and the latest quarter missed. Contract manufacturing volumes grew in the last two reported quarters, while commercial ingredients volumes were mixed; near-term execution risk remains, alongside the CEO transition. Management has delivered on dividend increases, but the broader evidence on execution is mixed.

What John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. hinges on

The near-term case weakens if management cuts guidance or employment data continues to weaken, which could raise recession concerns for cyclical businesses. It is supported if sector peers continue to report strong results and raise guidance, while JBSS sustains volume growth and manages costs.