J.B. Hunt (JBHT)

NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$228.78-2.78%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge J.B. Hunt’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.16 → 9.94 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 17 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Meet or exceed EPS guidance of $1.49 for 2026	A primary condition in J.B. Hunt's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $1.49.	Under Pressure	EPS guidance falls below $1.49 for FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income growth from cost reduction initiatives	Operating income improved from $178.7M to $207.0M, showing better cost control.	Under Pressure	Operating income falls below $178M next year	Operating income: $259.452M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $207M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 2026259,452,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6986bd67-d066-49ba-8674-f4189fb5e942. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 7 of 7 supplied quarters. Operating income increased from $178.680 million in 2025-Q1 to $247.093 million in 2026-Q3, and management attributed current-quarter Intermodal operating income growth in part to cost-to-serve execution and efficiency improvements. This shows measurable operational improvement, although consolidated operating income was up only 2% year over year in 2026-Q3, so delivery is positive but mixed. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue growth driven by investments in people, technology, and capacity	Hunt grows revenue by leveraging investments in people and technology.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 5% next year	Revenue growth: 19.37% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 202619.367484 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6986bd67-d066-49ba-8674-f4189fb5e942. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of 7 supplied quarters. Revenue was $3.677 billion in 2026-Q3 versus $3.053 billion in 2025-Q3, and Intermodal loads increased 8% year over year; management also reported growth in ICS and Truckload activity. These operating results provide substantive support for growth from the stated strategy, indicating delivery this quarter. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.94

$10.13 → $9.94 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$15.24B

$14.95B → $15.24B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.13	$14,945,691,202	17 / 16
2026-07-25	$10.13	$14,945,691,202	17 / 16
2026-07-26	$10.16	$14,945,691,202	17 / 16
2026-07-27	$10.16	$14,945,691,202	17 / 16
2026-07-28	$10.16	$14,945,691,202	17 / 16
2026-07-29	$10.12	$14,903,019,700	23 / 20
2026-07-30	$10.12	$14,903,019,700	23 / 20
2026-07-31	$10.16	$14,945,691,202	17 / 16
2026-08-01	$10.16	$14,945,691,202	17 / 16
2026-08-02	$10.16	$14,945,691,202	17 / 16
2026-08-03	$10.16	$14,945,691,202	17 / 16
2026-08-04	$10.12	$14,903,019,700	23 / 20
2026-08-05	$10.12	$14,903,019,700	23 / 20
2026-08-06	$10.16	$14,945,691,202	17 / 16
2026-08-07	$10.16	$14,945,691,202	17 / 16
2026-08-08	$10.12	$14,903,019,700	23 / 20
2026-08-09	$10.12	$14,903,019,700	23 / 20
2026-08-10	$10.16	$14,945,691,202	17 / 16
2026-08-12	$10.16	$14,945,691,202	17 / 16
2026-08-13	$10.12	$14,903,019,700	23 / 20
2026-08-14	$10.16	$14,945,691,202	17 / 16
2026-08-15	$10.16	$14,945,691,202	17 / 16
2026-08-16	$10.16	$14,945,691,202	17 / 16
2026-08-17	$10.16	$14,945,691,202	17 / 16
2026-08-18	$10.16	$14,945,691,202	17 / 16
2026-08-19	$10.16	$14,945,691,202	17 / 16
2026-08-20	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-08-21	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-08-22	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-08-23	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-08-24	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-08-25	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-08-26	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-08-27	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-08-28	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-08-29	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-08-30	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-08-31	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-09-01	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-09-02	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-09-03	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-09-04	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-09-05	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-09-06	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-09-07	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-09-08	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-09-09	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-09-10	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-09-11	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-09-12	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-09-13	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-09-14	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-09-15	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-09-16	$10.16	$14,945,684,913	17 / 16
2026-09-17	$10.12	$14,947,574,114	17 / 16
2026-09-18	$10.12	$14,947,574,114	17 / 16
2026-09-19	$10.07	$15,037,353,657	17 / 16
2026-09-20	$10.07	$15,037,353,657	17 / 16
2026-09-21	$10.07	$15,037,353,657	17 / 16
2026-09-22	$10.07	$15,045,996,592	17 / 16
2026-09-23	$10.07	$15,045,996,592	17 / 16
2026-09-24	$10.07	$15,045,996,592	17 / 16
2026-09-25	$10.07	$15,045,996,592	17 / 16
2026-09-26	$10.05	$15,066,428,592	17 / 16
2026-09-27	$10.05	$15,066,428,592	17 / 16
2026-09-28	$10.05	$15,066,428,592	17 / 16
2026-09-29	$10.05	$15,066,428,592	17 / 16
2026-09-30	$10.05	$15,066,428,592	17 / 16
2026-10-01	$10.05	$15,066,428,592	17 / 16
2026-10-02	$10.05	$15,066,428,592	17 / 16
2026-10-03	$10.03	$15,083,538,540	17 / 16
2026-10-04	$10.02	$15,083,538,540	17 / 16
2026-10-05	$10.02	$15,083,538,540	17 / 16
2026-10-06	$9.99	$15,089,666,008	17 / 16
2026-10-07	$9.99	$15,110,876,535	17 / 16
2026-10-08	$9.94	$15,127,563,487	17 / 15
2026-10-09	$9.91	$15,180,251,426	17 / 15
2026-10-10	$9.91	$15,180,251,426	17 / 15
2026-10-11	$9.91	$15,180,251,426	17 / 15
2026-10-12	$9.91	$15,180,251,426	17 / 15
2026-10-13	$9.91	$15,180,251,426	17 / 15
2026-10-14	$9.90	$15,213,987,616	17 / 15
2026-10-15	$9.94	$15,244,777,742	17 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	13	10	1
2026-06-01	13	9	1
2026-07-01	14	9	2
2026-08-01	14	8	2
2026-09-01	15	8	3
2026-10-01	15	7	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades13 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 14 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BernsteinOct 14 · prior Jul 9

$329.00 → $307.00-6.7%

Stifel NicolausOct 8 · prior Jul 13

$261.00 → $289.00+10.7%

Truist FinancialOct 7 · prior Jul 16

$295.00 → $235.00-20.3%

BMO CapitalOct 7 · prior Jun 5

$320.00 → $315.00-1.6%

SusquehannaOct 2 · prior Jul 16

$345.00 → $305.00-11.6%

UBSSep 17 · prior Jul 16

$291.00 → $264.00-9.3%

Raymond JamesSep 17 · prior Jul 16

$315.00 → $300.00-4.8%

BarclaysSep 16 · prior Jul 16

$300.00 → $285.00-5.0%

$0$189.75$379.50

1 raises · 7 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Meet or exceed EPS guidance of $1.49 for 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Operating income growth from cost reduction initiativesPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth driven by investments in people, technology, and capacityPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-25.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

J.B. Hunt outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team and robust earnings quality. The current thesis is supported by recent financial performance, though it faces challenges from sector dynamics.

What's priced into J.B. Hunt

The market currently prices JBHT at a premium compared to its peers, reflecting a justified valuation. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may be anticipating some level of performance improvement.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on leveraging investments in people, technology, and capacity, which has led to revenue and operating income growth. The near-term risk of missing earnings is low, but the company's history in a high-miss-rate industry warrants caution.

What J.B. Hunt hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like UPS, FDX, and EXPD. If these companies continue to beat earnings and guide higher, it could provide positive momentum for JBHT. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact JBHT's performance.