Invesco (IVZ)

NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-15

$28.20-2.08%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Invesco’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.28 → 3.27 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Debt reduction and dividend increase	A supporting condition in Invesco's published investment case. The stated target is Redeem >= $500 million senior notes in 2026-Q1.	Improving	No significant debt reduction or dividend raise in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Invesco reduced net debt from $1,159.8 million in 2026-Q1 to $708.6 million in 2026-Q2, a $451.2 million reduction, and repurchased $500 million of Series A Preferred Stock in 2025-Q4. Management has consistently emphasized balance sheet strength and efficient capital deployment, and the financial data shows delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EPS growth to $2.03 in 2026	A primary condition in Invesco's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $2.03 in 2026.	Broken	EPS guidance falls below $1.80 for 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Positive organic growth via net inflows	Invesco grows assets with $22 billion net inflows in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Net inflows fall below $15 billion in any quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Invesco reported record net long-term inflows of $67 billion in the first half of 2026, representing 7% annualized organic growth, up from 4.4% in 2026-Q1 to 8.5% in 2026-Q2. This trajectory matches management's repeated emphasis on delivering positive organic growth through diversified global demand and product expansion, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Increased common share buybacks	A supporting condition in Invesco's published investment case. The stated target is >= $40 million in buybacks in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Buybacks drop below $20 million in any quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Invesco increased common share repurchases from 1.6 million shares ($40 million) in 2026-Q1 to 1.9 million shares ($50 million) in 2026-Q2, an 80% increase year-to-date compared to last year. This consistent increase in buybacks alongside improved leverage ratio indicates management is delivering on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.27

$3.23 → $3.27 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.23	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-25	$3.23	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-26	$3.21	$5,924,493,260	13 / 5
2026-07-27	$3.24	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-28	$3.24	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-29	$3.21	$5,924,493,260	13 / 5
2026-07-30	$3.21	$5,924,493,260	13 / 5
2026-07-31	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-01	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-02	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-03	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-04	$3.24	Unavailable	13 / 4
2026-08-05	$3.23	Unavailable	13 / 3
2026-08-06	$3.23	Unavailable	13 / 3
2026-08-07	$3.26	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-08	$3.26	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-09	$3.22	Unavailable	13 / 3
2026-08-10	$3.26	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-12	$3.26	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-13	$3.26	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-14	$3.26	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-15	$3.26	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-16	$3.26	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-17	$3.26	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-18	$3.26	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-19	$3.26	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-20	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-21	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-22	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-23	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-24	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-25	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-26	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-27	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-28	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-29	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-30	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-31	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-09-01	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-09-02	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-09-03	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-09-04	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-09-05	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-09-06	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-09-07	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-09-08	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-09-09	$3.27	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-09-10	$3.28	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-09-11	$3.28	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-09-12	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-13	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-14	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-15	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-16	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-17	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-18	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-19	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-20	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-21	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-22	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-23	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-24	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-25	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-26	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-27	$3.27	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-28	$3.27	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-29	$3.27	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-30	$3.27	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-01	$3.27	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-02	$3.27	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-03	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-04	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-05	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-06	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-07	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-08	$3.28	$5,857,080,705	8 / 5
2026-10-09	$3.29	$5,857,080,705	8 / 5
2026-10-10	$3.29	$5,865,780,705	8 / 5
2026-10-11	$3.29	$5,858,872,501	8 / 5
2026-10-12	$3.29	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-13	$3.28	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-14	$3.29	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-15	$3.27	Unavailable	8 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	8
2026-06-01	4	8
2026-07-01	4	9
2026-08-01	4	9
2026-09-01	5	9
2026-10-01	6	9

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 13 · prior Oct 6

$41.00 → $36.00-12.2%

RBC CapitalOct 9 · prior Aug 13

$39.00 → $36.00-7.7%

Evercore ISIOct 9 · prior Aug 10

$35.00 → $34.00-2.9%

Morgan StanleySep 25

$31.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$22.55$45.10

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Debt reduction and dividend increaseDirect metric needs a verified mapping
EPS growth to $2.03 in 2026Published status: Broken
Positive organic growth via net inflowsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Increased common share buybacksDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Invesco outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable company with a focus on long-term growth despite current losses. The thesis is in a cautious state due to recent weak performance and medium confidence.

What's priced into Invesco

The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, suggesting that IVZ is seen as cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully anticipate the challenges ahead.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with priorities like delivering positive organic growth and strengthening the balance sheet. However, recent financial performance has been weak, which could impact future results.

What Invesco hinges on

The future of IVZ depends on several factors, including guidance from management in upcoming calls and performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, changes in interest rates could significantly affect the financial sector's performance.