Itron, Inc. (ITRI)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$87.65-0.59%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Itron, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.94 → 7.01 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	642.46M
EPS	—	1.788
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.39B
EPS	—	6.417
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.55B
EPS	—	7.01

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain cybersecurity and legal compliance	A supporting condition in Itron, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Sustain effective cybersecurity and compliance measures.	Recovered	New major cybersecurity breach or legal penalties occur	No new breaches or penalties reported April 2026 unauthorized access contained; no further activity observed; no new legal penalties or breaches reported in recent news. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management disclosed ongoing cybersecurity investigation and remediation efforts following unauthorized access in 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. The company reports no further unauthorized activity and continued containment, indicating active management of cybersecurity risks. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS around $6.00 in FY 2026	Itron delivers steady profit with EPS around $6.00 in 2026.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $5.75 in FY 2026	Diluted EPS: $1.19 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$6.00. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20261.19 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9dc3bfd1-d3a9-480d-bd7d-05e16013ae4e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue near $2.4 billion in FY 2026	Revenue is expected near $2.4 billion this year.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $2.35B in FY 2026	Revenue: $562.902M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.4B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 2026562,902,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9dc3bfd1-d3a9-480d-bd7d-05e16013ae4e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Execute $200 million share repurchase program	The company is executing a $200 million share repurchase program.	Intact	Repurchase program is canceled or materially delayed	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Board authorized a $200 million share repurchase program in 2026-Q2. The company repurchased $100 million in 2025-Q4 and $152.2 million in 2026-Q2, showing active execution. The trajectory is delivering on the repurchase commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.01

$6.56 → $7.01 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.55B

$2.53B → $2.55B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.56	$2,532,577,390	12 / 12
2026-07-25	$6.56	$2,532,577,390	12 / 12
2026-07-26	$6.56	$2,532,577,390	12 / 12
2026-07-27	$6.58	$2,532,475,081	9 / 10
2026-07-28	$6.56	$2,532,577,390	12 / 12
2026-07-29	$6.65	$2,523,515,830	12 / 12
2026-07-30	$6.65	$2,523,515,830	12 / 12
2026-07-31	$6.80	$2,545,730,310	12 / 12
2026-08-01	$6.85	$2,542,641,667	10 / 10
2026-08-02	$6.80	$2,545,730,310	12 / 12
2026-08-03	$6.80	$2,545,730,310	12 / 12
2026-08-04	$6.80	$2,545,730,310	12 / 12
2026-08-05	$6.80	$2,545,730,310	12 / 12
2026-08-06	$6.80	$2,545,730,310	12 / 12
2026-08-07	$6.85	$2,542,644,167	10 / 10
2026-08-08	$6.80	$2,545,730,310	12 / 12
2026-08-09	$6.80	$2,545,730,310	12 / 12
2026-08-10	$6.80	$2,545,730,310	12 / 12
2026-08-12	$6.85	$2,542,644,167	10 / 10
2026-08-13	$6.85	$2,542,644,167	10 / 10
2026-08-14	$6.85	$2,542,644,167	10 / 10
2026-08-15	$6.85	$2,542,644,167	10 / 10
2026-08-16	$6.85	$2,542,644,167	10 / 10
2026-08-17	$6.85	$2,542,644,167	10 / 10
2026-08-18	$6.85	$2,542,644,167	10 / 10
2026-08-19	$6.85	$2,542,644,167	9 / 10
2026-08-20	$6.88	$2,542,644,167	9 / 9
2026-08-21	$6.88	$2,542,644,167	9 / 9
2026-08-22	$6.88	$2,542,644,167	9 / 9
2026-08-23	$6.94	$2,544,793,636	9 / 9
2026-08-24	$6.94	$2,544,793,636	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-08-27	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-08-28	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-08-29	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-08-30	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-08-31	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-01	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-02	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-03	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-04	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-05	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-06	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-07	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-08	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-09	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-10	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-11	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-12	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-13	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-14	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-15	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-16	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-17	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-18	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-19	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-20	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-21	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-22	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-23	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-24	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-25	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-26	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-27	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-28	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-29	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-09-30	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-10-01	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-10-02	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-10-03	$6.94	$2,544,757,273	8 / 8
2026-10-04	$7.01	$2,550,953,000	8 / 8
2026-10-05	$7.01	$2,550,953,000	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$7.01	$2,550,953,000	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$7.01	$2,550,953,000	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$7.01	$2,550,953,000	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$7.01	$2,550,953,000	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$7.01	$2,550,953,000	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$7.01	$2,550,953,000	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$7.01	$2,550,953,000	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$7.01	$2,550,953,000	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$7.01	$2,550,953,000	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$7.01	$2,550,953,000	7 / 8
2026-10-16	$7.01	$2,550,953,000	7 / 8
2026-10-17	$7.01	$2,550,953,000	7 / 8
2026-10-18	$7.01	$2,550,953,000	7 / 8
2026-10-19	$7.01	$2,550,953,000	7 / 8
2026-10-20	$7.01	$2,550,953,000	7 / 8
2026-10-21	$7.01	$2,550,996,371	7 / 8
2026-10-22	$7.01	$2,550,991,997	7 / 8
2026-10-23	$7.01	$2,550,991,997	7 / 8
2026-10-24	$7.01	$2,550,991,997	7 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	2	1
2026-06-01	10	2	1
2026-07-01	10	2	1
2026-08-01	10	2	1
2026-09-01	10	2	1
2026-10-01	10	2	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS around $6.00 in FY 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue near $2.4 billion in FY 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Execute $200 million share repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-43.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Itron, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ITRI is a modest-growth technology business with a recurring-revenue growth effort, rather than a clear high-growth story. Its long-term thesis is intact, but the signal has eased from favorable to mildly favorable.

What's priced into Itron, Inc.

The evidence describes ITRI as cheap versus peers, with expectations below the model’s view. That gap suggests the market is not assuming strong execution, while the overall priced-in fragility is low; confidence in this assessment is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, two recent earnings beats and Outcomes revenue growth support a steady operating picture, though the evidence rates recent performance and earnings quality as neutral. Repurchases are on track, while cybersecurity work remains mixed after unauthorized access; a guidance cut is a key near-term risk.

What Itron, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends partly on continued Outcomes and recurring-revenue growth, alongside follow-through on the repurchase program and effective cybersecurity remediation. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the case, while Fed rate cuts or stronger results from sector bellwethers could support the broader technology backdrop.