Iridium Communications (IRDM)

Q: What's priced into Iridium Communications (IRDM) stock?

The valuation model indicates IRDM is expensive versus peers, with a meaningful expectations gap; confidence in those estimates is low. The evidence labels the pricing setup unjustified, but does not show the full combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence.

Q: What does the Iridium Communications (IRDM) outlook hinge on?

A key swing factor is whether the pending Rocket Lab acquisition clears remaining regulatory approvals and closing conditions. The setup also depends on continued service growth and delivery of planned aviation offerings, while lower interest rates and stronger results from sector peers could provide a favorable backdrop.

NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$44.40+1.39%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Iridium Communications’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	239.73M
EPS	—	0.27
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	928.15M
EPS	—	1.208
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	981.28M
EPS	—	1.218

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Aireon acquisition adds at least $100 million service revenue annually	The Aireon deal adds $100 million revenue yearly.	Intact	Aireon revenue contribution falls below $100 million annually	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain dividend at $0.15 per share quarterly	Dividends stay steady at $0.15 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.15 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Reduce net leverage to 3.0x or below by end of 2026	A supporting condition in Iridium Communications's published investment case. The stated target is <= 3.0x net leverage by end 2026.	Under Pressure	Net leverage remains above 3.4x at end 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Total service revenue growth flat to 2% in 2026	A primary condition in Iridium Communications's published investment case. The stated target is flat to 2% growth in 2026.	Improving	YoY service revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26	Revenue growth: 8.28% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: flat to 2% growth in 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 20, 20268.283429 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 70b5c7c0-ff06-4e4f-b698-8b2cac63be44. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$0.98B

$0.95B → $0.98B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$950,356,675	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$950,356,675	4 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$978,068,548	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$978,068,548	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$978,068,548	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$978,068,548	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$968,882,258	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$960,735,215	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$960,735,215	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$960,735,215	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$960,735,215	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$960,735,215	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$960,735,215	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$960,735,215	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$960,735,215	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$960,735,215	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$960,735,215	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$960,735,215	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$960,735,215	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$960,735,215	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$960,735,215	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$960,735,215	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$960,735,215	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$960,735,215	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$960,735,215	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$960,735,215	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$960,735,215	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$973,480,048	3 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$981,280,881	3 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$981,280,881	3 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	3	1
2026-06-01	6	5	1
2026-07-01	4	5	0
2026-08-01	4	4	0
2026-09-01	4	4	0
2026-10-01	4	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Aireon acquisition adds at least $100 million service revenue annuallyDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain dividend at $0.15 per share quarterlyDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Reduce net leverage to 3.0x or below by end of 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Total service revenue growth flat to 2% in 2026Revenue growth: 8.28%

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-21.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Iridium Communications outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

IRDM is a communications-services growth and acquisition-execution story, rather than a clear turnaround or deep-value case. The long-term thesis is intact, with company momentum recently improving, but confidence is medium and risk remains elevated.

What's priced into Iridium Communications

The valuation model indicates IRDM is expensive versus peers, with a meaningful expectations gap; confidence in those estimates is low. The evidence labels the pricing setup unjustified, but does not show the full combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term, service revenue growth and Aireon’s contribution support the business, while the latest event snapshot also records an earnings beat. The multi-year trajectory depends on sustaining service growth and executing strategic offerings; recent earnings have been erratic, and a guidance cut would be a notable risk.

What Iridium Communications hinges on