Ingersoll Rand (IR)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-15

$77.78-0.12%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ingersoll Rand’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.90 → 3.90 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA of $2.13 to $2.19 billion for 2026	Profit margins stay strong with adjusted EBITDA near $2.13 to $2.19 billion.	Under Pressure	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $2.13 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Adjusted EPS of $3.45 to $3.57 for 2026	Adjusted EPS targets $3.45 to $3.57 for the year.	Under Pressure	Adjusted EPS falls below $3.45 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full-year 2026 revenue growth of 2.5% to 4.5%	A primary condition in Ingersoll Rand's published investment case. The stated target is 2.5% to 4.5% YoY.	Under Pressure	Revenue growth falls below 2.5% in FY26	Revenue growth: 8.52% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 2.5% to 4.5% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20268.522697 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 049351e0-b0bf-46e9-96f7-daa7d314650b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Management updated full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to 4.5% to 6.5% as of 2026-Q2, up from prior guidance of 2.5% to 4.5% in 2025-Q4. Reported revenues increased from $1.888B in 2025-Q2 to $2.049B in 2026-Q2. The trajectory matches management's stated growth focus, delivering on revenue expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.90

$3.85 → $3.90 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$8.52B

$8.29B → $8.52B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.85	$8,289,813,190	8 / 10
2026-07-25	$3.85	$8,296,311,330	14 / 13
2026-07-26	$3.85	$8,296,311,330	14 / 13
2026-07-27	$3.85	$8,296,311,330	14 / 13
2026-07-28	$3.85	$8,289,813,190	8 / 10
2026-07-29	$3.85	$8,296,311,330	14 / 13
2026-07-30	$3.85	$8,289,813,190	8 / 10
2026-07-31	$3.85	$8,289,842,360	8 / 10
2026-08-01	$3.85	$8,289,842,360	8 / 10
2026-08-02	$3.87	$8,350,913,930	14 / 13
2026-08-03	$3.84	$8,376,256,518	8 / 10
2026-08-04	$3.84	$8,376,256,518	8 / 10
2026-08-05	$3.89	$8,457,893,990	14 / 13
2026-08-06	$3.84	$8,376,256,518	8 / 10
2026-08-07	$3.84	$8,376,256,518	8 / 10
2026-08-08	$3.90	$8,479,997,840	14 / 13
2026-08-09	$3.90	$8,479,997,840	14 / 13
2026-08-10	$3.84	$8,376,256,518	8 / 10
2026-08-12	$3.84	$8,376,256,518	8 / 10
2026-08-13	$3.84	$8,376,256,518	8 / 10
2026-08-14	$3.84	$8,376,256,518	8 / 10
2026-08-15	$3.84	$8,376,256,518	8 / 10
2026-08-16	$3.84	$8,376,256,518	8 / 10
2026-08-17	$3.84	$8,376,256,518	8 / 10
2026-08-18	$3.84	$8,376,256,518	8 / 10
2026-08-19	$3.84	$8,376,256,518	8 / 10
2026-08-20	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-08-21	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-08-22	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-08-23	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-08-24	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-08-25	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-08-26	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-08-27	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-08-28	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-08-29	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-08-30	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-08-31	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-09-01	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-09-02	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-09-03	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-09-04	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-09-05	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-09-06	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-09-07	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-09-08	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-09-09	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-09-10	$3.90	$8,500,004,639	8 / 10
2026-09-11	$3.90	$8,500,000,206	8 / 10
2026-09-12	$3.90	$8,500,000,206	8 / 10
2026-09-13	$3.90	$8,500,000,206	8 / 10
2026-09-14	$3.90	$8,500,000,206	8 / 10
2026-09-15	$3.90	$8,500,000,206	8 / 10
2026-09-16	$3.90	$8,500,250,206	8 / 10
2026-09-17	$3.90	$8,500,250,206	8 / 10
2026-09-18	$3.90	$8,500,250,206	8 / 10
2026-09-19	$3.90	$8,500,250,206	8 / 10
2026-09-20	$3.90	$8,500,250,206	8 / 10
2026-09-21	$3.90	$8,500,250,206	8 / 10
2026-09-22	$3.90	$8,500,250,206	8 / 10
2026-09-23	$3.90	$8,500,250,206	8 / 10
2026-09-24	$3.90	$8,500,250,206	8 / 10
2026-09-25	$3.90	$8,500,250,206	8 / 10
2026-09-26	$3.90	$8,500,250,206	8 / 10
2026-09-27	$3.90	$8,500,250,206	8 / 10
2026-09-28	$3.90	$8,500,616,346	8 / 10
2026-09-29	$3.90	$8,500,616,346	8 / 10
2026-09-30	$3.90	$8,500,616,346	8 / 10
2026-10-01	$3.90	$8,521,400,549	8 / 10
2026-10-02	$3.90	$8,521,400,549	8 / 10
2026-10-03	$3.90	$8,521,400,549	8 / 10
2026-10-04	$3.90	$8,521,400,549	8 / 10
2026-10-05	$3.90	$8,521,400,549	8 / 10
2026-10-06	$3.90	$8,521,400,549	8 / 10
2026-10-07	$3.90	$8,515,567,215	8 / 10
2026-10-08	$3.90	$8,515,567,215	8 / 10
2026-10-09	$3.90	$8,515,567,215	8 / 10
2026-10-10	$3.90	$8,515,567,215	8 / 10
2026-10-11	$3.90	$8,515,567,215	7 / 10
2026-10-12	$3.90	$8,515,567,215	7 / 10
2026-10-13	$3.90	$8,515,567,215	7 / 10
2026-10-14	$3.90	$8,515,567,215	7 / 10
2026-10-15	$3.90	$8,515,567,215	7 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	8
2026-06-01	9	7
2026-07-01	7	8
2026-08-01	8	8
2026-09-01	7	7
2026-10-01	7	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA of $2.13 to $2.19 billion for 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Adjusted EPS of $3.45 to $3.57 for 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Full-year 2026 revenue growth of 2.5% to 4.5%Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ingersoll Rand outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a stable growth investment with a focus on consistent revenue and earnings growth. The current thesis is intact, supported by management's commitment to growth targets despite recent fluctuations in confidence.

What's priced into Ingersoll Rand

The stock is currently viewed as expensive compared to peers, with a premium of 0.93. The market seems to expect a modest growth trajectory, with an expectations gap of 0.11 indicating some room for adjustments based on future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to meet their revenue and earnings targets for 2026, with recent financial performance showing positive trends. However, there is a moderate risk of missing guidance, which could impact future results.

What Ingersoll Rand hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GEV, PH, and TT. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support IR's growth. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could pose a risk to IR's outlook.