IQVIA (IQV)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-10-15

$266.90-1.53%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge IQVIA’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

14.42 → 14.40 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Share repurchase authorization at $3.2 billion	It also increased share buyback authorization to $3.2 billion, showing strong capital return.	Intact	Authorization falls below $3.2 billion	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. IQVIA repurchased $552 million in 2026-Q1 and $398 million in 2026-Q2, totaling $950 million in first half 2026. The board increased share repurchase authorization by $2 billion in May 2026. Management is delivering on capital return through active buybacks and expanded authorization. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EPS near $12.7 in 2026	A primary condition in IQVIA's published investment case. The stated target is >= $12.55 per share.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $12.55 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.53 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $12.55 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20261.53 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 90b25395-baa4-4141-8a0d-d27c881bd7d6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
R&D Solutions backlog expansion to $32.7 billion	The company expands its R&D backlog to $32.7 billion, securing future business.	Intact	R&D backlog falls below $32.4 billion	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full-year 2026 revenue at $17.15-$17.35 billion	IQVIA grows revenue about 7% a year, with $17.25 billion guided for 2026.	Under Pressure	revenue falls below $17.15 billion in FY26	Revenue: $4.368B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $17.15 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20264,368,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 90b25395-baa4-4141-8a0d-d27c881bd7d6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$14.40

$14.13 → $14.40 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$18.44B

$18.25B → $18.44B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$14.13	$18,253,670,885	14 / 16
2026-07-25	$14.17	$18,278,561,230	22 / 20
2026-07-26	$14.17	$18,278,561,230	22 / 20
2026-07-27	$14.17	$18,278,561,230	22 / 20
2026-07-28	$14.13	$18,253,644,687	14 / 16
2026-07-29	$14.17	$18,278,561,230	22 / 20
2026-07-30	$14.38	$18,405,444,297	14 / 15
2026-07-31	$14.38	$18,405,444,297	13 / 14
2026-08-01	$14.38	$18,405,444,297	13 / 14
2026-08-02	$14.43	$18,463,236,560	21 / 18
2026-08-03	$14.38	$18,405,444,297	13 / 14
2026-08-04	$14.44	$18,468,806,720	21 / 18
2026-08-05	$14.44	$18,468,806,720	21 / 18
2026-08-06	$14.44	$18,468,806,720	21 / 18
2026-08-07	$14.40	$18,424,002,372	13 / 14
2026-08-08	$14.44	$18,468,826,650	21 / 18
2026-08-09	$14.44	$18,468,826,650	21 / 18
2026-08-10	$14.40	$18,424,002,372	13 / 14
2026-08-12	$14.40	$18,424,002,372	13 / 14
2026-08-13	$14.40	$18,424,002,372	13 / 14
2026-08-14	$14.40	$18,424,002,372	13 / 14
2026-08-15	$14.40	$18,424,002,372	13 / 14
2026-08-16	$14.40	$18,424,002,372	13 / 14
2026-08-17	$14.40	$18,424,002,372	13 / 14
2026-08-18	$14.40	$18,424,002,372	13 / 14
2026-08-19	$14.40	$18,424,002,372	13 / 14
2026-08-20	$14.40	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-08-21	$14.40	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-08-22	$14.40	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-08-23	$14.40	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-08-24	$14.40	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-08-25	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-08-26	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-08-27	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-08-28	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-08-29	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-08-30	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-08-31	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-01	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-02	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-03	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-04	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-05	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-06	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-07	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-08	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-09	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-10	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-11	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-12	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-13	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-14	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-15	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-16	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-17	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-18	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-19	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-20	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-21	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-22	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-23	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-24	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-25	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-26	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-27	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-28	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-29	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-09-30	$14.42	$18,424,002,372	14 / 14
2026-10-01	$14.44	$18,432,357,371	14 / 15
2026-10-02	$14.44	$18,432,357,371	14 / 15
2026-10-03	$14.44	$18,432,357,371	14 / 15
2026-10-04	$14.44	$18,432,357,371	14 / 15
2026-10-05	$14.44	$18,432,357,371	14 / 15
2026-10-06	$14.42	$18,437,915,265	14 / 15
2026-10-07	$14.42	$18,437,925,792	14 / 15
2026-10-08	$14.41	$18,437,925,792	14 / 16
2026-10-09	$14.42	$18,437,667,897	14 / 16
2026-10-10	$14.42	$18,437,667,897	14 / 16
2026-10-11	$14.40	$18,437,667,897	14 / 16
2026-10-12	$14.40	$18,437,667,897	14 / 16
2026-10-13	$14.40	$18,437,667,897	14 / 16
2026-10-14	$14.40	$18,437,667,897	14 / 16
2026-10-15	$14.40	$18,437,667,897	14 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	21	2
2026-06-01	21	3
2026-07-01	20	3
2026-08-01	19	3
2026-09-01	19	3
2026-10-01	19	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Stifel NicolausOct 14

$303.00New observation · no comparable prior

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 7 · prior Jul 13

$230.00 → $300.00+30.4%

BarclaysOct 7

$300.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSSep 30

$345.00New observation · no comparable prior

Truist FinancialSep 28

$329.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleySep 17 · prior Jun 17

$200.00 → $270.00+35.0%

$0$189.75$379.50

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Share repurchase authorization at $3.2 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
EPS near $12.7 in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
R&D Solutions backlog expansion to $32.7 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Full-year 2026 revenue at $17.15-$17.35 billionPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

IQVIA outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent growth and strong operational performance. The current thesis state is stable, supported by robust earnings quality and a solid backlog in R&D Solutions.

What's priced into IQVIA

The market appears to have priced in a premium valuation compared to peers, indicating expectations for continued strong performance. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting that while the stock is seen as expensive, some growth is still anticipated.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, given management's track record of raising guidance and expanding their backlog. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for economic downturns that could impact performance.

What IQVIA hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain or raise guidance without credibility issues, as well as the performance of key sector peers that could influence market sentiment. Additionally, macroeconomic conditions, such as job growth, will play a critical role in shaping future results.