International Paper (IP)

NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$34.05-0.15%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge International Paper’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+2.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.02 → 3.09 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain strong cost and cash flow management	A primary condition in International Paper's published investment case. The stated target is >= $600 million cash from operations per quarter.	Improving	cash from operating activities falls below $600 million per quarter	Cash from operations: $526M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $600 million cash from operations per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026526,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near analyst estimates	A primary condition in International Paper's published investment case. The stated target is >= 3.5% YoY revenue growth.	Improving	YoY revenue growth falls below 3.5% in FY26	Revenue growth: -11.28% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 3.5% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026-11.275307 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 95bd1529-5f38-4fab-a63a-d60b7c1107d8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Advance separation of EMEA packaging business	The company plans to separate its EMEA packaging business.	Improving	no meaningful progress on EMEA packaging separation by FY26 end	Qualitative: PE bid interest reported Multiple reports on Oct 15, 2026, cite private equity interest in IP's European packaging business, reinforcing the separation thesis. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. PS EMEA operating loss increased from -$51M in 2026-Q1 to -$80M in 2026-Q2, reflecting ongoing challenges. Management continues to advance separation preparations, but financial results show increasing losses in the segment. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.09

$2.81 → $3.09 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$26.19B

$25.91B → $26.19B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.81	$25,914,381,964	8 / 9
2026-07-25	$2.81	$25,914,381,964	8 / 9
2026-07-26	$2.80	$25,791,256,330	12 / 11
2026-07-27	$2.80	$25,791,256,330	12 / 11
2026-07-28	$2.81	$25,914,381,964	8 / 9
2026-07-29	$2.86	$25,837,947,810	12 / 11
2026-07-30	$2.88	$25,965,742,586	8 / 9
2026-07-31	$2.91	$25,959,621,570	8 / 9
2026-08-01	$2.91	$25,959,621,570	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$2.94	$25,783,643,510	12 / 11
2026-08-03	$2.95	$25,851,236,811	9 / 9
2026-08-04	$2.94	$25,783,643,510	12 / 11
2026-08-05	$2.95	$25,851,236,811	9 / 9
2026-08-06	$2.94	$25,783,643,510	12 / 11
2026-08-07	$2.95	$25,851,236,811	9 / 9
2026-08-08	$2.95	$25,851,236,811	9 / 9
2026-08-09	$2.94	$25,783,672,600	12 / 11
2026-08-10	$2.95	$25,851,236,811	9 / 9
2026-08-12	$2.95	$25,851,236,811	9 / 9
2026-08-13	$2.95	$25,851,236,811	9 / 9
2026-08-14	$2.95	$25,851,236,811	9 / 9
2026-08-15	$2.95	$25,851,236,811	9 / 9
2026-08-16	$2.95	$25,851,236,811	9 / 9
2026-08-17	$2.95	$25,851,236,811	9 / 9
2026-08-18	$2.95	$25,851,236,811	9 / 9
2026-08-19	$2.95	$25,851,236,811	9 / 9
2026-08-20	$3.00	$25,983,336,811	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$3.00	$25,983,336,811	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$3.00	$25,983,336,811	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$3.00	$25,983,336,811	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$3.00	$25,983,336,811	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$3.00	$25,983,336,811	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$3.00	$25,983,336,811	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$3.00	$25,983,336,811	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$3.00	$25,983,336,811	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$3.00	$25,983,336,811	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$3.00	$25,983,336,811	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$3.00	$25,983,336,811	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$3.00	$25,983,336,811	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$3.00	$25,983,336,811	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$3.00	$25,983,336,811	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$3.00	$25,983,386,742	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$3.00	$25,983,386,742	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$3.00	$25,983,386,742	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$3.00	$25,983,386,742	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$3.00	$25,983,386,742	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$3.00	$25,983,386,742	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$3.00	$25,983,386,742	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$3.00	$25,983,386,742	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$3.02	$25,865,588,767	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$3.02	$25,865,588,767	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$3.02	$25,865,588,767	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$3.02	$25,865,588,767	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$3.02	$25,865,588,767	8 / 9
2026-09-17	$3.02	$25,865,588,767	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$3.02	$25,865,588,767	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$3.02	$25,865,588,767	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$3.02	$25,865,588,767	8 / 9
2026-09-21	$3.02	$25,865,588,767	8 / 9
2026-09-22	$3.02	$25,865,588,767	8 / 9
2026-09-23	$3.02	$25,865,588,767	8 / 9
2026-09-24	$3.02	$25,865,588,767	8 / 9
2026-09-25	$3.04	$25,928,468,530	8 / 9
2026-09-26	$3.04	$25,928,468,530	8 / 9
2026-09-27	$3.04	$25,928,468,530	9 / 9
2026-09-28	$3.04	$25,928,468,530	9 / 9
2026-09-29	$3.04	$25,928,468,530	9 / 9
2026-09-30	$3.04	$25,928,468,530	9 / 9
2026-10-01	$3.04	$25,928,468,530	9 / 9
2026-10-02	$3.04	$25,928,468,530	9 / 9
2026-10-03	$3.04	$25,928,468,530	9 / 9
2026-10-04	$3.04	$25,978,416,541	9 / 9
2026-10-05	$3.04	$25,978,416,541	9 / 9
2026-10-06	$3.03	$26,069,247,683	9 / 9
2026-10-07	$3.03	$26,069,247,683	9 / 9
2026-10-08	$3.04	$26,146,136,572	9 / 9
2026-10-09	$3.04	$26,146,136,572	9 / 9
2026-10-10	$3.04	$26,146,136,572	9 / 9
2026-10-11	$3.04	$26,146,136,572	9 / 9
2026-10-12	$3.04	$26,146,136,572	9 / 9
2026-10-13	$3.09	$26,187,225,461	9 / 9
2026-10-14	$3.09	$26,187,225,461	9 / 9
2026-10-15	$3.09	$26,187,225,461	9 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	5	0
2026-06-01	9	4	0
2026-07-01	9	5	1
2026-08-01	9	3	1
2026-09-01	10	3	0
2026-10-01	10	2	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 5 · prior Jul 31

$47.00 → $35.00-25.5%

$0$25.85$51.70

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain strong cost and cash flow managementCash from operations: $526M
Sustain revenue growth near analyst estimatesRevenue growth: -11.28%

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-40.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

International Paper outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story with a medium confidence level. The current thesis state indicates mixed execution from management and ongoing losses, which may hinder recovery efforts in the near term.

What's priced into International Paper

The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, indicating that investors are not overly concerned about immediate risks. However, IP is seen as cheap compared to its peers, suggesting that expectations for improvement are modest.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain weak in the near term, with management struggling to deliver on key priorities. Recent financial results show declining operating income and EBITDA, reflecting challenges in achieving profitability improvements.

What International Paper hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to execute on their stated priorities and the potential for favorable sector conditions. A significant risk is if guidance is cut in the next earnings call, which could negatively impact sentiment.