Invitation Homes (INVH)

NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-10-15

$27.07+1.01%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Invitation Homes’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.74 → 0.74 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete $500 million share repurchase program and start new one	They repurchased $500 million in shares and started a new program.	Intact	No new share repurchase program authorized or completed in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Acquire new homes to expand housing supply	The company keeps its 2026 outlook and buys new homes to grow.	Intact	New home acquisitions fall below 200 homes per quarter	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management acquired 368 newly constructed homes for $123 million in 2025-Q4, acquired ResiBuilt Homes in January 2026 to add development capabilities, and acquired 196 homes for $74 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows consistent execution supporting new housing supply through acquisitions and development. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain revenue growth near 8.8% YoY	A primary condition in Invitation Homes's published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year	Revenue growth: 9.71% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20269.707793 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 72c0dcd7-9b63-4442-9528-8e93340854e4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management acquired 368 newly constructed homes for $123 million in 2025-Q4, acquired ResiBuilt Homes in January 2026 to add development capabilities, and acquired 196 homes for $74 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows consistent execution supporting new housing supply through acquisitions and development. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.74

Unavailable → $0.74 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.02B

$2.99B → $3.02B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$2,988,640,170	4 / 6
2026-07-25	$0.72	$2,926,063,373	8 / 6
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$2,988,640,170	4 / 6
2026-07-27	$0.72	$2,926,063,373	8 / 6
2026-07-28	$0.72	$2,985,779,277	8 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$2,988,640,170	4 / 6
2026-07-30	$0.72	$2,985,779,277	8 / 6
2026-07-31	$0.73	$2,970,676,691	7 / 6
2026-08-01	$0.73	$2,970,676,691	7 / 6
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$2,987,898,830	4 / 6
2026-08-03	$0.74	$2,985,377,277	7 / 6
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$2,987,898,830	4 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$2,991,798,830	4 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$2,991,798,830	4 / 6
2026-08-07	$0.74	$2,985,377,277	7 / 6
2026-08-08	$0.74	$2,985,377,277	7 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$2,988,798,830	4 / 6
2026-08-10	$0.74	$2,985,377,277	7 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$2,996,008,670	4 / 6
2026-08-13	$0.74	$2,985,377,277	7 / 6
2026-08-14	$0.74	$2,985,377,277	7 / 6
2026-08-15	$0.74	$2,985,377,277	7 / 6
2026-08-16	$0.74	$2,985,377,277	7 / 6
2026-08-17	$0.74	$2,985,377,277	7 / 6
2026-08-18	$0.74	$2,985,377,277	7 / 6
2026-08-19	$0.74	$2,985,377,277	7 / 6
2026-08-20	$0.75	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-08-21	$0.75	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-08-22	$0.75	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-08-23	$0.75	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-08-24	$0.75	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-08-25	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-08-26	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-08-27	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-08-28	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-08-29	$0.75	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-08-30	$0.75	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-08-31	$0.75	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-09-01	$0.75	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-09-02	$0.75	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-09-03	$0.75	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-09-04	$0.75	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-09-05	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-09-06	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-09-07	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-09-08	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-09-09	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-09-10	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-09-11	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-09-12	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-09-13	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-09-14	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	8 / 5
2026-09-15	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-09-16	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-09-17	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-09-18	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-09-19	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-09-20	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-09-21	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-09-22	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-09-23	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-09-24	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-09-25	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-09-26	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-09-27	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-09-28	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-09-29	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-09-30	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-10-01	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-10-02	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-10-03	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-10-04	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-10-05	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-10-06	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-10-07	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-10-08	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-10-09	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-10-10	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-10-11	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-10-12	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	7 / 5
2026-10-13	$0.74	$3,016,399,000	6 / 5
2026-10-14	$0.74	$3,017,399,000	6 / 5
2026-10-15	$0.74	$3,017,399,000	6 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	14
2026-06-01	13	13
2026-07-01	13	12
2026-08-01	13	12
2026-09-01	15	12
2026-10-01	14	11

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 14 · prior Apr 27

$32.00 → $35.00+9.4%

UBSOct 12 · prior May 19

$32.00 → $31.00-3.1%

Mizuho SecuritiesSep 21 · prior Jun 17

$31.00 → $32.00+3.2%

BTIGSep 21

$32.00New observation · no comparable prior

ScotiabankSep 17 · prior Jun 18

$30.00 → $28.00-6.7%

$0$19.25$38.50

2 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Complete $500 million share repurchase program and start new oneDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Acquire new homes to expand housing supplyQualitative condition
Maintain revenue growth near 8.8% YoYRevenue growth: 9.71%

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Invitation Homes outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on real estate. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance and ongoing management priorities.

What's priced into Invitation Homes

The market appears to price INVH as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. This suggests that while the stock is not overly expensive, there is a cautious sentiment regarding its future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, given management's track record of maintaining and modestly raising financial outlooks. However, there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, which is a risk to monitor.

What Invitation Homes hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on share repurchase programs. Additionally, external factors like Federal Reserve rate changes and performance of sector peers will be crucial for future momentum.