Intuit (INTU)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-15

$325.15-1.52%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Intuit’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-4.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

27.42 → 26.28 EPS · FY ending Jul 31, 2028 · 19 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 19 to 19; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

5 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Accelerate AI-driven innovation	A supporting condition in Intuit's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain AI innovation acceleration.	Intact	AI innovation efforts stall or fail to deliver meaningful product improvements	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Share repurchases of at least $1.6B in Q2 2026	A supporting condition in Intuit's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.6 billion.	Intact	Repurchases fall significantly below $1.6 billion in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Intuit repurchased $5.5 billion of stock in fiscal 2026, a 96% increase over prior year, with a remaining authorization of $7.9 billion. The company consistently increased repurchase activity and authorization, demonstrating delivery on accelerating share repurchases. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EPS near $0.76 next quarter	Profit margins remain strong with EPS guidance at $0.76 next quarter.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.73 next quarter	Diluted EPS: $1.34 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.73 per share. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Sep 9, 20261.34 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Simplify organizational structure with workforce reduction	A supporting condition in Intuit's published investment case. The stated target is Complete planned simplification and cost savings.	Improving	Cost savings and simplification plans fail or lead to operational disruption	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full-year revenue at or above $21.34B in FY26	A primary condition in Intuit's published investment case. The stated target is >= $21.34 billion.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $21.34 billion in FY26	Revenue: $4.354B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $21.34 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 9, 20264,354,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$26.28

$30.86 → $26.28 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$25.54B

$26.35B → $25.54B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-01	$30.86	$26,352,037,215	13 / 23
2026-08-02	$30.86	$26,352,037,215	13 / 23
2026-08-03	$30.86	$26,352,037,215	13 / 23
2026-08-04	$30.86	$26,352,037,215	13 / 23
2026-08-05	$30.86	$26,352,037,215	13 / 23
2026-08-06	$30.86	$26,352,037,215	13 / 23
2026-08-07	$30.86	$26,352,037,215	13 / 23
2026-08-08	$30.86	$26,352,037,215	13 / 23
2026-08-09	$30.86	$26,352,037,215	13 / 23
2026-08-10	$30.86	$26,352,037,215	13 / 23
2026-08-12	$30.86	$26,352,037,215	13 / 23
2026-08-13	$30.86	$26,352,037,215	13 / 23
2026-08-14	$30.86	$26,352,037,215	13 / 23
2026-08-15	$30.86	$26,352,037,215	13 / 23
2026-08-16	$30.86	$26,352,037,215	13 / 23
2026-08-17	$30.86	$26,352,037,215	13 / 23
2026-08-18	$30.86	$26,352,037,215	13 / 23
2026-08-19	$30.86	$26,352,037,215	13 / 23
2026-08-20	$30.79	$26,265,525,123	13 / 25
2026-08-21	$30.79	$26,231,672,742	13 / 25
2026-08-22	$30.79	$26,231,672,742	13 / 25
2026-08-23	$30.81	$26,212,387,028	13 / 25
2026-08-24	$30.81	$26,212,387,028	13 / 25
2026-08-25	$30.80	$26,206,687,618	13 / 26
2026-08-26	$30.31	$26,157,133,072	13 / 26
2026-08-27	$30.31	$26,157,133,072	13 / 26
2026-08-28	$30.31	$26,157,133,072	13 / 26
2026-08-29	$27.44	$25,650,411,574	18 / 22
2026-08-30	$27.31	$25,578,308,037	18 / 23
2026-08-31	$27.38	$25,568,630,425	18 / 23
2026-09-01	$27.38	$25,538,644,639	18 / 23
2026-09-02	$27.38	$25,538,642,343	19 / 22
2026-09-03	$27.26	$25,538,642,343	19 / 22
2026-09-04	$27.26	$25,538,642,343	19 / 22
2026-09-05	$27.38	$25,533,877,812	19 / 22
2026-09-06	$27.38	$25,533,877,812	19 / 22
2026-09-07	$27.38	$25,533,877,812	19 / 22
2026-09-08	$27.38	$25,533,877,812	19 / 22
2026-09-09	$27.38	$25,533,877,812	19 / 22
2026-09-10	$27.38	$25,533,877,812	19 / 22
2026-09-11	$27.38	$25,533,877,812	19 / 22
2026-09-12	$27.23	$25,533,874,108	19 / 22
2026-09-13	$27.23	$25,533,874,108	19 / 22
2026-09-14	$27.23	$25,533,874,108	19 / 22
2026-09-15	$27.42	$25,536,122,729	19 / 22
2026-09-16	$27.27	$25,536,122,729	19 / 22
2026-09-17	$26.45	$25,536,122,729	19 / 22
2026-09-18	$26.45	$25,536,122,729	19 / 22
2026-09-19	$26.45	$25,536,122,729	19 / 22
2026-09-20	$26.77	$25,535,844,951	19 / 22
2026-09-21	$26.77	$25,535,844,951	19 / 22
2026-09-22	$26.77	$25,535,844,951	19 / 22
2026-09-23	$26.77	$25,535,844,951	19 / 22
2026-09-24	$26.77	$25,535,844,951	19 / 22
2026-09-25	$26.28	$25,533,997,692	19 / 22
2026-09-26	$26.28	$25,533,997,692	19 / 22
2026-09-27	$26.28	$25,533,997,692	19 / 22
2026-09-28	$26.28	$25,533,997,692	19 / 22
2026-09-29	$26.28	$25,533,997,692	19 / 22
2026-09-30	$26.28	$25,533,997,692	19 / 22
2026-10-01	$26.28	$25,533,997,692	19 / 22
2026-10-02	$26.28	$25,533,997,692	19 / 22
2026-10-03	$26.28	$25,534,001,396	19 / 22
2026-10-04	$26.28	$25,534,001,396	19 / 22
2026-10-05	$26.28	$25,534,001,396	19 / 22
2026-10-06	$26.28	$25,534,001,396	19 / 22
2026-10-07	$26.28	$25,534,001,396	19 / 22
2026-10-08	$26.28	$25,534,001,396	19 / 22
2026-10-09	$26.28	$25,534,001,396	19 / 22
2026-10-10	$26.28	$25,534,001,396	19 / 22
2026-10-11	$26.28	$25,534,004,666	19 / 22
2026-10-12	$26.28	$25,534,004,666	19 / 22
2026-10-13	$26.28	$25,535,077,319	19 / 22
2026-10-14	$26.28	$25,535,077,319	19 / 22
2026-10-15	$26.28	$25,535,077,319	19 / 22

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	29	6	0
2026-06-01	28	6	1
2026-07-01	28	8	2
2026-08-01	25	12	2
2026-09-01	21	12	2
2026-10-01	20	12	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalSep 18 · prior May 21

$500.00 → $385.00-23.0%

$0$275.00$550.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Accelerate AI-driven innovationQualitative condition
Share repurchases of at least $1.6B in Q2 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Simplify organizational structure with workforce reductionQualitative condition
Full-year revenue at or above $21.34B in FY26Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 19, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-62.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Intuit outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on scaling growth and managing volatility. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to key priorities.

What's priced into Intuit

The market appears to price INTU as a cheap option compared to its peers, with expectations slightly below actual performance. There is a low level of fragility in the stock, indicating that current valuations are justified.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, given management's successful execution on growth initiatives and the recent financial performance. However, there is a near-term risk of missing expectations, although the probability is low.

What Intuit hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the Fed's potential rate cuts, performance of sector bellwethers, and management's ability to maintain guidance and credibility. Any reversal in guidance could negatively impact investor confidence.