Inspired Entertainment, Inc. (INSE)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-10-23

$3.17-2.76%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Inspired Entertainment, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	68.89M
EPS	—	0.154
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	251.4M
EPS	—	0.178
EBITDA	$112M–$118Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	264.09M
EPS	—	0.357

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Full year Adjusted EBITDA $112M-$118M	They expect adjusted EBITDA between $112M and $118M this year.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $110M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA was $23.7 million in 2026-Q1 and $27.1 million in 2026-Q2, showing sequential growth. Management has consistently reaffirmed the $112M-$118M full year target, and the trajectory is delivering with sequential quarterly growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Adjusted EBITDA margin near 45%	They expect adjusted EBITDA between $112M and $118M this year.	Improving	Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 43% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 41% in 2026-Q1 to a company-record 45% in 2026-Q2. Management increased the margin target to 45% and the actual margin achievement in Q2 matches this target, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA grows 20% YoY	They expect adjusted EBITDA between $112M and $118M this year.	Improving	Q1 2026 EBITDA growth falls below 15% YoY	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth stabilizes or improves	A supporting condition in Inspired Entertainment, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=0% YoY.	Broken	Revenue growth falls below -5% YoY in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.27B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$273,900,600	3 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$273,900,600	3 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$273,900,600	3 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$273,900,600	3 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$273,900,600	3 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$273,900,600	3 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$273,900,600	3 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$273,900,600	3 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$271,592,800	2 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	1
2026-06-01	5	1
2026-07-01	5	1
2026-08-01	5	1
2026-09-01	5	2
2026-10-01	4	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 20

$8.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$4.40$8.80

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Full year Adjusted EBITDA $112M-$118MDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Adjusted EBITDA margin near 45%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA grows 20% YoYDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth stabilizes or improvesPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-67.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Inspired Entertainment, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk growth and execution story, not a proven durable compounder, because the evidence still classifies earnings quality as loss-making. The thesis is intact and the recent signal improved to mildly favorable, with management showing progress on margins but mixed progress on cash generation and full-year EBITDA.

What's priced into Inspired Entertainment, Inc.

INSE trades at a 1.68 premium versus peers, and the valuation evidence points to re-rating expectations, meaning the market appears to expect a change in how it values the business. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, but the expectations gap is slightly negative, so there is limited evidence that expectations are unusually forgiving.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the next earnings report is a key risk: recent surprises have been erratic, and the evidence flags a meaningful chance of a miss. Over the multi-year view, the main support is execution: Q2 Adjusted EBITDA margin reached a company-record 45%, while quarterly Adjusted EBITDA increased from Q1 to Q2; full-year EBITDA and cash-conversion progress remain mixed.

What Inspired Entertainment, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on management maintaining its 2026 EBITDA and cash-conversion aims, while sustaining the margin improvement. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while continued strength among sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.