Incyte (INCY)

Q: What's priced into Incyte (INCY) stock?

The market currently views INCY as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not fully account for the company's recent strong performance and growth potential.

Q: What does the Incyte (INCY) outlook hinge on?

The thesis hinges on maintaining momentum in the healthcare sector, particularly if key competitors continue to perform well. Additionally, any changes in guidance or economic conditions could significantly impact investor sentiment.

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-15

$113.07-0.18%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Incyte’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-4.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.54 → 8.19 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage R&D and SG&A expenses within $3.21B to $3.38B in 2026	A supporting condition in Incyte's published investment case. The stated target is R&D + SG&A expenses <= $3.38B.	Intact	expenses exceed $3.38B in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. GAAP R&D expenses were $515.9M in 2026-Q1 and $517.0M in 2026-Q2, with SG&A expenses rising from $328.1M to $351.7M. Full year 2026 GAAP R&D and SG&A expense guidance was raised to $4.915 - $4.995 billion. Management is maintaining investment in pipeline and launches while managing expense growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Successful integration of Vega Therapeutics acquisition	The recent acquisition of Vega Therapeutics expands the pipeline and supports future growth.	Intact	acquisition integration delays or pipeline setbacks reported	Vega acquisition completed 2026-07-06; pipeline advancing Vega acquisition completed July 2026. Positive pipeline data and sales growth reported. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 6 quarters. The acquisition of Vega Therapeutics was completed in 2026-Q2 for $1.25 billion, adding latarcibart to the pipeline. Management expects an IPR&D expense of approximately $1.27 billion in 2026 related to this transaction. The acquisition is complete and integration is underway as planned. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Growth in Jakafi, Opzelura, and Hematology/Oncology sales	Jakafi sales rose 7% to $758M and Opzelura sales grew 20% to $143M.	Intact	any product line growth falls below half of target growth rates	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Total revenue grew from $1.27 billion in 2026-Q1 to $1.67 billion in 2026-Q2 (+38%), with total net sales increasing 40% year-over-year in 2026-Q2. Hematology and Oncology net sales guidance was raised to $860 - $890 million for 2026. Management is delivering broad-based growth across marketed products consistent with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Total net sales growth to at least $3.29B in 2026	Incyte grows total net sales 20% year-over-year to $1.27B in Q1 2026.	Intact	total net sales fall below $3.2B in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Total revenue grew from $1.27 billion in 2026-Q1 to $1.67 billion in 2026-Q2 (+38%), with total net sales increasing 40% year-over-year in 2026-Q2. Hematology and Oncology net sales guidance was raised to $860 - $890 million for 2026. Management is delivering broad-based growth across marketed products consistent with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.19

$8.87 → $8.19 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.22B

$6.19B → $6.22B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.87	$6,186,155,379	10 / 11
2026-07-25	$9.01	$6,205,129,210	10 / 11
2026-07-26	$9.01	$6,205,129,210	10 / 11
2026-07-27	$9.00	$6,191,621,912	9 / 11
2026-07-28	$8.89	$6,192,021,912	9 / 11
2026-07-29	$9.04	$6,195,826,330	12 / 13
2026-07-30	$8.72	$6,216,478,103	11 / 14
2026-07-31	$8.60	$6,202,010,612	13 / 16
2026-08-01	$8.60	$6,202,010,612	13 / 16
2026-08-02	$8.60	$6,202,010,612	13 / 16
2026-08-03	$8.60	$6,202,010,612	13 / 16
2026-08-04	$8.79	$6,222,706,330	18 / 19
2026-08-05	$8.88	$6,255,376,010	18 / 20
2026-08-06	$8.88	$6,255,376,010	18 / 20
2026-08-07	$8.63	$6,218,166,294	13 / 16
2026-08-08	$8.63	$6,218,166,294	13 / 16
2026-08-09	$8.88	$6,255,376,010	18 / 20
2026-08-10	$8.63	$6,218,166,294	13 / 16
2026-08-12	$8.63	$6,218,166,294	13 / 16
2026-08-13	$8.88	$6,255,226,010	18 / 20
2026-08-14	$8.63	$6,218,166,294	13 / 16
2026-08-15	$8.63	$6,218,166,294	13 / 17
2026-08-16	$8.63	$6,218,166,294	13 / 17
2026-08-17	$8.63	$6,218,166,294	13 / 17
2026-08-18	$8.63	$6,218,166,294	13 / 17
2026-08-19	$8.63	$6,218,166,294	13 / 17
2026-08-20	$8.59	$6,226,016,033	13 / 17
2026-08-21	$8.59	$6,226,016,033	13 / 17
2026-08-22	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 17
2026-08-23	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 17
2026-08-24	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-08-25	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-08-26	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-08-27	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-08-28	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-08-29	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-08-30	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-08-31	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-09-01	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-09-02	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-09-03	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-09-04	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-09-05	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-09-06	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-09-07	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	15 / 18
2026-09-08	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	15 / 18
2026-09-09	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	15 / 18
2026-09-10	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	15 / 18
2026-09-11	$8.54	$6,232,890,365	15 / 18
2026-09-12	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-13	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-14	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-15	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-16	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-17	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-18	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-19	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-20	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-21	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-22	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-23	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-24	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-25	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-26	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-27	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-28	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-29	$8.60	$6,233,286,157	15 / 18
2026-09-30	$8.60	$6,233,286,157	15 / 18
2026-10-01	$8.60	$6,233,286,157	15 / 18
2026-10-02	$8.57	$6,233,411,149	15 / 18
2026-10-03	$8.50	$6,229,523,204	15 / 18
2026-10-04	$8.50	$6,229,523,204	15 / 18
2026-10-05	$8.50	$6,229,523,204	15 / 18
2026-10-06	$8.47	$6,224,972,246	15 / 18
2026-10-07	$8.47	$6,224,972,246	15 / 18
2026-10-08	$8.47	$6,224,972,246	15 / 18
2026-10-09	$8.46	$6,226,481,746	15 / 18
2026-10-10	$8.44	$6,224,961,455	15 / 18
2026-10-11	$8.44	$6,224,961,455	15 / 18
2026-10-12	$8.44	$6,224,961,455	15 / 18
2026-10-13	$8.21	$6,220,376,188	15 / 18
2026-10-14	$8.19	$6,218,120,538	15 / 18
2026-10-15	$8.19	$6,218,120,538	15 / 18

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	15	2
2026-06-01	11	15	3
2026-07-01	11	15	1
2026-08-01	12	15	1
2026-09-01	12	15	1
2026-10-01	12	15	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades8 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 14 · prior Jun 22

$105.00 → $115.00+9.5%

RBC CapitalOct 8 · prior Jul 29

$109.00 → $114.00+4.6%

UBSOct 5 · prior Jun 26

$113.00 → $127.00+12.4%

Stifel NicolausOct 5 · prior Jul 28

$145.00 → $157.00+8.3%

H.C. WainwrightSep 28 · prior Jul 29

$150.00 → $152.00+1.3%

$0$86.35$172.70

5 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage R&D and SG&A expenses within $3.21B to $3.38B in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Growth in Jakafi, Opzelura, and Hematology/Oncology salesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Total net sales growth to at least $3.29B in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Incyte outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on expanding its hematology and oncology sales. The current thesis state is intact, as recent financial results remain strong despite some mixed signals in the pipeline.

What's priced into Incyte

The market currently views INCY as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not fully account for the company's recent strong performance and growth potential.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with its priorities, showing strong revenue growth and maintaining investment in research and development. However, the mixed status of the late-stage pipeline indicates some uncertainty in future results.

What Incyte hinges on

The thesis hinges on maintaining momentum in the healthcare sector, particularly if key competitors continue to perform well. Additionally, any changes in guidance or economic conditions could significantly impact investor sentiment.

Bottom line

Overall, INCY's fundamentals are strong, but the company faces risks that could affect its trajectory. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.19

$8.87 → $8.19 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.22B

$6.19B → $6.22B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.87	$6,186,155,379	10 / 11
2026-07-25	$9.01	$6,205,129,210	10 / 11
2026-07-26	$9.01	$6,205,129,210	10 / 11
2026-07-27	$9.00	$6,191,621,912	9 / 11
2026-07-28	$8.89	$6,192,021,912	9 / 11
2026-07-29	$9.04	$6,195,826,330	12 / 13
2026-07-30	$8.72	$6,216,478,103	11 / 14
2026-07-31	$8.60	$6,202,010,612	13 / 16
2026-08-01	$8.60	$6,202,010,612	13 / 16
2026-08-02	$8.60	$6,202,010,612	13 / 16
2026-08-03	$8.60	$6,202,010,612	13 / 16
2026-08-04	$8.79	$6,222,706,330	18 / 19
2026-08-05	$8.88	$6,255,376,010	18 / 20
2026-08-06	$8.88	$6,255,376,010	18 / 20
2026-08-07	$8.63	$6,218,166,294	13 / 16
2026-08-08	$8.63	$6,218,166,294	13 / 16
2026-08-09	$8.88	$6,255,376,010	18 / 20
2026-08-10	$8.63	$6,218,166,294	13 / 16
2026-08-12	$8.63	$6,218,166,294	13 / 16
2026-08-13	$8.88	$6,255,226,010	18 / 20
2026-08-14	$8.63	$6,218,166,294	13 / 16
2026-08-15	$8.63	$6,218,166,294	13 / 17
2026-08-16	$8.63	$6,218,166,294	13 / 17
2026-08-17	$8.63	$6,218,166,294	13 / 17
2026-08-18	$8.63	$6,218,166,294	13 / 17
2026-08-19	$8.63	$6,218,166,294	13 / 17
2026-08-20	$8.59	$6,226,016,033	13 / 17
2026-08-21	$8.59	$6,226,016,033	13 / 17
2026-08-22	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 17
2026-08-23	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 17
2026-08-24	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-08-25	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-08-26	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-08-27	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-08-28	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-08-29	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-08-30	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-08-31	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-09-01	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-09-02	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-09-03	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-09-04	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-09-05	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-09-06	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	14 / 18
2026-09-07	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	15 / 18
2026-09-08	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	15 / 18
2026-09-09	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	15 / 18
2026-09-10	$8.54	$6,232,765,365	15 / 18
2026-09-11	$8.54	$6,232,890,365	15 / 18
2026-09-12	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-13	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-14	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-15	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-16	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-17	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-18	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-19	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-20	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-21	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-22	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-23	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-24	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-25	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-26	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-27	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-28	$8.54	$6,232,757,032	15 / 18
2026-09-29	$8.60	$6,233,286,157	15 / 18
2026-09-30	$8.60	$6,233,286,157	15 / 18
2026-10-01	$8.60	$6,233,286,157	15 / 18
2026-10-02	$8.57	$6,233,411,149	15 / 18
2026-10-03	$8.50	$6,229,523,204	15 / 18
2026-10-04	$8.50	$6,229,523,204	15 / 18
2026-10-05	$8.50	$6,229,523,204	15 / 18
2026-10-06	$8.47	$6,224,972,246	15 / 18
2026-10-07	$8.47	$6,224,972,246	15 / 18
2026-10-08	$8.47	$6,224,972,246	15 / 18
2026-10-09	$8.46	$6,226,481,746	15 / 18
2026-10-10	$8.44	$6,224,961,455	15 / 18
2026-10-11	$8.44	$6,224,961,455	15 / 18
2026-10-12	$8.44	$6,224,961,455	15 / 18
2026-10-13	$8.21	$6,220,376,188	15 / 18
2026-10-14	$8.19	$6,218,120,538	15 / 18
2026-10-15	$8.19	$6,218,120,538	15 / 18

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings