International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF)

NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-15

$90.68+0.43%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge International Flavors & Fragrances’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.99 → 3.89 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Net income improves to at least $169 million in Q1 2026	Net income rose from $7 million to $169 million in one quarter.	Intact	Net income falls below $7 million in Q1 2026	Net income: $50M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $169 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 202650,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1a3b1428-509a-431a-b0a7-b40625fe6eb7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Profit margin near 10% in FY26	Profit margins stay near 10%.	Broken	Operating margin falls below 5% in FY26	Operating margin: 8.09% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 10% operating margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20268.085977 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1a3b1428-509a-431a-b0a7-b40625fe6eb7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $10.65 billion in 2026	IFF grows revenue to about $10.65 billion in 2026.	Broken	Revenue falls below $10.6 billion in FY26	Revenue: $1.954B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $10.65 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20261,954,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1a3b1428-509a-431a-b0a7-b40625fe6eb7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Adjusted operating EBITDA margin improved from 19.7% in 2025-Q2 to 20.9% in 2026-Q2, with currency neutral adjusted operating EBITDA growth of 6% year-over-year. Management consistently emphasized volume growth, innovation, and productivity gains as drivers. The trajectory is delivering on financial performance improvement. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.89

$4.81 → $3.89 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.83B

$11.04B → $7.83B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.81	$11,037,722,450	15 / 13
2026-07-25	$4.73	$10,529,923,306	8 / 10
2026-07-26	$4.65	$10,319,494,250	8 / 9
2026-07-27	$4.65	$10,319,494,250	8 / 9
2026-07-28	$4.65	$10,319,494,250	8 / 9
2026-07-29	$4.80	$11,045,699,320	14 / 12
2026-07-30	$4.65	$10,319,494,250	8 / 9
2026-07-31	$4.80	$11,045,699,320	14 / 12
2026-08-01	$4.65	$10,319,494,250	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$4.80	$11,045,699,320	14 / 12
2026-08-03	$4.65	$10,319,494,250	8 / 9
2026-08-04	$4.80	$11,045,699,320	14 / 12
2026-08-05	$4.80	$11,045,699,320	14 / 12
2026-08-06	$4.80	$11,045,699,320	14 / 12
2026-08-07	$4.04	$8,237,830,919	6 / 9
2026-08-08	$4.04	$8,237,830,919	6 / 9
2026-08-09	$3.99	$7,831,646,500	16 / 15
2026-08-10	$4.04	$8,237,830,919	6 / 9
2026-08-12	$3.96	$7,833,154,630	16 / 15
2026-08-13	$3.96	$7,833,154,630	16 / 15
2026-08-14	$4.04	$8,237,830,919	6 / 9
2026-08-15	$4.04	$8,237,830,919	7 / 10
2026-08-16	$4.04	$8,237,830,919	7 / 10
2026-08-17	$4.04	$8,237,830,919	7 / 10
2026-08-18	$4.04	$8,237,830,919	7 / 10
2026-08-19	$4.04	$8,237,830,919	7 / 10
2026-08-20	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-08-21	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-08-22	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-08-23	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-08-24	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-08-25	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-08-26	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-08-27	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-08-28	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-08-29	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-08-30	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-08-31	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-09-01	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-09-02	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-09-03	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-09-04	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-09-05	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-09-06	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-09-07	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-09-08	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-09-09	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-09-10	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-09-11	$3.98	$8,029,993,688	9 / 12
2026-09-12	$3.99	$8,021,347,000	10 / 13
2026-09-13	$3.99	$8,021,347,000	10 / 13
2026-09-14	$3.99	$8,021,347,000	10 / 13
2026-09-15	$3.99	$8,021,347,000	10 / 13
2026-09-16	$3.99	$8,021,347,000	10 / 13
2026-09-17	$3.99	$8,021,347,000	10 / 13
2026-09-18	$3.99	$8,021,347,000	10 / 13
2026-09-19	$3.99	$8,021,347,000	10 / 13
2026-09-20	$3.99	$8,021,369,053	10 / 13
2026-09-21	$3.99	$8,021,369,053	10 / 13
2026-09-22	$3.99	$8,021,369,053	10 / 13
2026-09-23	$3.99	$8,021,369,053	10 / 13
2026-09-24	$3.99	$8,021,369,053	10 / 13
2026-09-25	$3.99	$8,021,369,053	10 / 13
2026-09-26	$3.99	$8,021,369,053	10 / 13
2026-09-27	$3.94	$7,829,267,119	10 / 13
2026-09-28	$3.94	$7,829,267,119	10 / 13
2026-09-29	$3.94	$7,829,267,119	10 / 13
2026-09-30	$3.94	$7,829,267,119	10 / 13
2026-10-01	$3.94	$7,829,267,119	10 / 13
2026-10-02	$3.94	$7,829,267,119	10 / 13
2026-10-03	$3.94	$7,827,079,619	9 / 13
2026-10-04	$3.94	$7,827,079,619	9 / 13
2026-10-05	$3.94	$7,827,079,619	10 / 13
2026-10-06	$3.94	$7,826,081,632	10 / 13
2026-10-07	$3.94	$7,826,081,632	10 / 13
2026-10-08	$3.89	$7,828,347,309	10 / 13
2026-10-09	$3.89	$7,828,347,309	10 / 13
2026-10-10	$3.89	$7,828,347,309	10 / 13
2026-10-11	$3.89	$7,828,347,309	10 / 13
2026-10-12	$3.89	$7,828,347,309	10 / 13
2026-10-13	$3.89	$7,828,347,309	10 / 13
2026-10-14	$3.89	$7,828,347,309	10 / 13
2026-10-15	$3.89	$7,828,347,309	10 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	15	5
2026-06-01	16	4
2026-07-01	16	5
2026-08-01	16	6
2026-09-01	15	6
2026-10-01	15	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Argus ResearchOct 7

$95.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$52.25$104.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Net income improves to at least $169 million in Q1 2026Net income: $50M
Profit margin near 10% in FY26Published status: Broken
Revenue grows to about $10.65 billion in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

International Flavors & Fragrances outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on optimizing its portfolio and driving financial performance. The current thesis state is intact, but confidence has shifted to medium due to recent changes in management execution and sector dynamics.

What's priced into International Flavors & Fragrances

The market appears to price IFF at a durable premium compared to its peers, reflecting expectations for continued strong performance. However, there is an expectations gap, indicating that some investors may not fully believe in the company's ability to maintain its recent momentum.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to improve as management continues to focus on portfolio optimization and financial performance. Recent results show strong operating margins and growth, although the company remains loss-making overall, which could pose risks in the near term.

What International Flavors & Fragrances hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on its priorities, particularly in divesting non-core assets and driving innovation. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and sector performance will significantly influence IFF's trajectory.