Interactive Brokers (IBKR)

NASDAQFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$82.69-3.88%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Interactive Brokers’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+3.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.17 → 3.27 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Customer accounts increase by 31% to 4.75 million	Interactive Brokers grows customer accounts 31% to 4.75 million.	Intact	customer accounts fail to grow by 31% year-over-year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS near $0.60 next quarter	Revenue is guided near $1.68 billion next quarter.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.59 next quarter	Diluted EPS: $0.69 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$0.60 per share. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Aug 6, 20260.69 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: eb892ebb-4bdb-4077-bbac-722923687c2b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net revenue near $1.68 billion next quarter	Revenue is guided near $1.68 billion next quarter.	Intact	net revenue falls below $1.67 billion next quarter	Revenue: $760M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.68 billion. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Aug 6, 2026760,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: eb892ebb-4bdb-4077-bbac-722923687c2b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.27

$3.14 → $3.27 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$8.81B

Unavailable → $8.81B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.14	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-25	$3.17	$8,709,030,670	12 / 6
2026-07-26	$3.16	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-27	$3.16	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-28	$3.19	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-29	$3.19	$8,709,030,670	12 / 6
2026-07-30	$3.19	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-31	$3.19	$8,677,933,425	7 / 5
2026-08-01	$3.19	$8,677,933,425	7 / 5
2026-08-02	$3.19	$8,677,933,425	7 / 5
2026-08-03	$3.19	$8,677,933,425	7 / 5
2026-08-04	$3.19	$8,703,026,290	12 / 7
2026-08-05	$3.19	$8,677,933,425	7 / 5
2026-08-06	$3.19	$8,679,987,000	12 / 7
2026-08-07	$3.19	$8,677,933,425	7 / 5
2026-08-08	$3.19	$8,677,933,425	7 / 5
2026-08-09	$3.18	$8,672,296,510	12 / 7
2026-08-10	$3.18	$8,672,296,510	12 / 7
2026-08-12	$3.18	$8,672,296,510	12 / 7
2026-08-13	$3.19	$8,677,933,425	7 / 5
2026-08-14	$3.19	$8,677,933,425	7 / 5
2026-08-15	$3.19	$8,677,933,425	7 / 5
2026-08-16	$3.19	$8,677,933,425	7 / 5
2026-08-17	$3.19	$8,677,933,425	7 / 5
2026-08-18	$3.19	$8,677,933,425	7 / 5
2026-08-19	$3.19	$8,677,933,425	7 / 5
2026-08-20	$3.18	$8,654,052,842	7 / 5
2026-08-21	$3.18	$8,654,052,842	7 / 5
2026-08-22	$3.18	$8,654,052,842	7 / 5
2026-08-23	$3.18	$8,654,052,842	7 / 5
2026-08-24	$3.18	$8,654,052,842	7 / 5
2026-08-25	$3.18	$8,654,052,842	7 / 5
2026-08-26	$3.18	$8,654,052,842	7 / 5
2026-08-27	$3.18	$8,654,052,842	7 / 5
2026-08-28	$3.18	$8,654,052,842	7 / 5
2026-08-29	$3.18	$8,651,647,557	7 / 5
2026-08-30	$3.18	$8,651,647,557	8 / 6
2026-08-31	$3.18	$8,651,647,557	8 / 6
2026-09-01	$3.18	$8,651,647,557	8 / 6
2026-09-02	$3.18	$8,651,647,557	8 / 6
2026-09-03	$3.17	$8,635,984,366	8 / 6
2026-09-04	$3.17	$8,647,820,487	8 / 6
2026-09-05	$3.17	$8,647,820,487	8 / 6
2026-09-06	$3.17	$8,647,820,487	8 / 6
2026-09-07	$3.17	$8,647,820,487	8 / 6
2026-09-08	$3.17	$8,647,820,487	8 / 6
2026-09-09	$3.17	$8,647,820,487	8 / 6
2026-09-10	$3.17	$8,647,820,487	8 / 6
2026-09-11	$3.17	$8,647,820,487	8 / 6
2026-09-12	$3.17	$8,647,820,487	8 / 6
2026-09-13	$3.17	$8,647,820,487	8 / 6
2026-09-14	$3.17	$8,647,820,487	8 / 6
2026-09-15	$3.17	$8,647,820,487	8 / 6
2026-09-16	$3.17	$8,647,820,487	8 / 6
2026-09-17	$3.17	$8,647,820,487	8 / 6
2026-09-18	$3.17	$8,647,820,487	8 / 6
2026-09-19	$3.17	$8,647,820,487	8 / 6
2026-09-20	$3.17	$8,647,820,487	8 / 6
2026-09-21	$3.17	$8,647,820,487	8 / 6
2026-09-22	$3.18	$8,677,484,913	8 / 6
2026-09-23	$3.18	$8,677,484,913	8 / 6
2026-09-24	$3.18	$8,677,484,913	8 / 6
2026-09-25	$3.18	$8,677,484,913	8 / 6
2026-09-26	$3.18	$8,677,484,913	8 / 6
2026-09-27	$3.18	$8,677,484,913	8 / 6
2026-09-28	$3.18	$8,677,484,913	8 / 6
2026-09-29	$3.18	$8,677,484,913	8 / 6
2026-09-30	$3.18	$8,677,484,913	8 / 6
2026-10-01	$3.18	$8,677,484,913	8 / 5
2026-10-02	$3.19	$8,695,498,170	8 / 5
2026-10-03	$3.21	$8,742,064,837	8 / 5
2026-10-04	$3.21	$8,742,064,837	8 / 5
2026-10-05	$3.22	$8,742,064,837	8 / 5
2026-10-06	$3.23	$8,758,481,504	8 / 5
2026-10-07	$3.25	$8,809,272,863	8 / 5
2026-10-08	$3.26	$8,800,506,377	9 / 6
2026-10-09	$3.26	$8,800,506,377	9 / 6
2026-10-10	$3.26	$8,800,506,377	9 / 6
2026-10-11	$3.26	$8,800,506,377	9 / 6
2026-10-12	$3.26	$8,800,506,377	9 / 6
2026-10-13	$3.27	$8,807,262,609	9 / 6
2026-10-14	$3.27	$8,807,262,609	9 / 6
2026-10-15	$3.27	$8,806,765,144	9 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	1	1
2026-06-01	9	1	1
2026-07-01	9	2	1
2026-08-01	9	3	1
2026-09-01	9	4	1
2026-10-01	12	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Evercore ISIOct 12

$100.00New observation · no comparable prior

Deutsche BankOct 12

$102.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSOct 7 · prior Sep 1

$102.00 → $101.00-1.0%

BarclaysOct 7 · prior Jul 22

$114.00 → $115.00+0.9%

Capital One FinancialOct 6

$105.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoOct 1

$102.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 1 · prior Sep 1

$113.00 → $111.00-1.8%

$0$63.25$126.50

1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Customer accounts increase by 31% to 4.75 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Net revenue near $1.68 billion next quarterRevenue: $760M

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Interactive Brokers outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and consistent growth in key metrics.

What's priced into Interactive Brokers

The market appears to have priced in an expensive valuation relative to peers, with a slight expectations gap. This suggests that investors are anticipating continued strong performance, but any negative news could impact sentiment.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to meet its ambitious revenue and earnings targets, with robust growth in customer accounts. However, there is a moderate risk due to recent changes in company momentum and the potential for misses in upcoming results.

What Interactive Brokers hinges on

The thesis hinges on maintaining guidance in the next earnings call and the broader financial sector's performance. Key indicators include the actions of sector bellwethers and any changes in interest rates by the Federal Reserve.