Humana (HUM)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-10-15

$413.16-4.41%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Humana’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

16.72 → 16.96 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effective share buyback program execution	The company also announced a share buyback program, showing strong capital allocation.	Intact	Buyback program is halted or materially reduced	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain EPS guidance of at least $9.00 for FY 2026	Humana keeps its EPS guidance at $9.00 for 2026.	Under Pressure	EPS guidance falls below $9.00 for FY 2026	Diluted EPS: $5.73 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9.00 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20265.73 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ac588ae9-9d88-4518-801a-a16221a18b98. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management affirmed FY 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance consistently at 'at least $9.00' from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2, while revising GAAP EPS guidance downward from $8.89 to $6.52 due to Star Ratings headwinds. The trajectory shows consistent commitment to adjusted EPS guidance despite GAAP EPS pressure, indicating delivery on the stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue growth from Illinois Medicaid HealthChoice program	It won a big Illinois Medicaid contract that should boost revenue and margins.	Under Pressure	Revenue growth falls below 15% YoY in FY26	Revenue growth: 26.18% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202626.179449 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ac588ae9-9d88-4518-801a-a16221a18b98. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$16.96

$16.13 → $16.96 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$167.79B

$169.29B → $167.79B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$16.13	$169,292,702,749	16 / 17
2026-07-25	$16.13	$169,292,702,749	16 / 17
2026-07-26	$16.13	$169,292,702,749	16 / 17
2026-07-27	$16.13	$169,292,702,749	16 / 17
2026-07-28	$16.16	$169,292,702,749	16 / 17
2026-07-29	$16.16	$169,292,702,749	16 / 17
2026-07-30	$16.03	$169,925,387,440	26 / 21
2026-07-31	$16.28	$169,216,383,260	26 / 21
2026-08-01	$16.60	$168,861,321,288	15 / 17
2026-08-02	$16.60	$168,715,999,174	15 / 17
2026-08-03	$16.48	$169,450,817,490	26 / 21
2026-08-04	$16.60	$168,715,999,174	15 / 17
2026-08-05	$16.48	$169,347,579,400	26 / 21
2026-08-06	$16.48	$169,347,579,400	26 / 21
2026-08-07	$16.61	$168,612,765,112	15 / 17
2026-08-08	$16.48	$169,347,579,400	26 / 21
2026-08-09	$16.61	$168,612,765,112	15 / 17
2026-08-10	$16.48	$169,347,579,400	26 / 21
2026-08-12	$16.61	$168,612,765,112	15 / 17
2026-08-13	$16.57	$168,730,702,750	26 / 21
2026-08-14	$16.61	$168,612,765,112	15 / 17
2026-08-15	$16.61	$168,612,765,112	15 / 17
2026-08-16	$16.61	$168,612,765,112	15 / 17
2026-08-17	$16.61	$168,612,765,112	15 / 17
2026-08-18	$16.61	$168,612,765,112	15 / 17
2026-08-19	$16.61	$168,612,765,112	15 / 17
2026-08-20	$16.72	$167,995,896,168	15 / 17
2026-08-21	$16.72	$167,995,896,168	15 / 17
2026-08-22	$16.72	$167,995,896,168	15 / 17
2026-08-23	$16.72	$167,995,896,168	16 / 17
2026-08-24	$16.72	$167,995,896,168	16 / 17
2026-08-25	$16.72	$167,995,896,168	16 / 17
2026-08-26	$16.72	$167,995,896,168	16 / 17
2026-08-27	$16.72	$167,995,896,168	16 / 17
2026-08-28	$16.72	$167,995,896,168	16 / 17
2026-08-29	$16.72	$167,819,782,815	16 / 17
2026-08-30	$16.72	$167,819,782,815	16 / 17
2026-08-31	$16.72	$167,819,782,815	16 / 17
2026-09-01	$16.72	$167,819,782,815	16 / 17
2026-09-02	$16.72	$167,819,782,815	16 / 17
2026-09-03	$16.72	$167,819,782,815	16 / 17
2026-09-04	$16.72	$167,819,772,853	16 / 16
2026-09-05	$16.72	$167,819,772,853	16 / 16
2026-09-06	$16.72	$167,819,772,853	16 / 16
2026-09-07	$16.72	$167,819,772,853	16 / 16
2026-09-08	$16.72	$167,819,772,853	16 / 16
2026-09-09	$16.72	$167,819,782,815	16 / 16
2026-09-10	$16.72	$167,819,782,815	16 / 16
2026-09-11	$16.72	$167,819,782,815	16 / 16
2026-09-12	$16.72	$167,819,782,815	16 / 16
2026-09-13	$16.72	$167,819,782,815	16 / 16
2026-09-14	$16.72	$167,819,782,815	16 / 16
2026-09-15	$16.72	$167,819,782,815	16 / 16
2026-09-16	$16.72	$167,819,782,817	16 / 16
2026-09-17	$16.72	$167,819,782,817	16 / 16
2026-09-18	$16.72	$167,819,782,817	16 / 16
2026-09-19	$16.72	$167,819,782,817	16 / 16
2026-09-20	$16.83	$167,801,878,055	16 / 16
2026-09-21	$16.83	$167,801,878,055	15 / 16
2026-09-22	$16.83	$167,801,878,055	15 / 16
2026-09-23	$16.83	$167,801,878,055	15 / 16
2026-09-24	$16.83	$167,801,878,055	15 / 16
2026-09-25	$16.83	$167,658,354,246	15 / 16
2026-09-26	$16.85	$167,658,354,246	15 / 16
2026-09-27	$16.85	$167,658,354,246	15 / 16
2026-09-28	$16.85	$167,658,354,246	15 / 16
2026-09-29	$16.85	$167,658,354,246	15 / 16
2026-09-30	$16.85	$167,658,354,259	15 / 16
2026-10-01	$16.85	$167,658,354,259	15 / 16
2026-10-02	$16.85	$167,658,354,259	15 / 16
2026-10-03	$16.85	$167,658,354,259	15 / 16
2026-10-04	$16.85	$167,658,354,259	15 / 16
2026-10-05	$16.85	$167,658,354,259	15 / 16
2026-10-06	$16.85	$167,666,797,116	15 / 16
2026-10-07	$16.85	$167,666,797,116	15 / 16
2026-10-08	$16.93	$167,562,125,687	15 / 16
2026-10-09	$16.93	$167,562,125,687	15 / 16
2026-10-10	$16.93	$167,562,125,687	15 / 16
2026-10-11	$17.12	$167,562,125,687	15 / 16
2026-10-12	$17.12	$167,562,125,687	15 / 16
2026-10-13	$16.96	$167,788,562,514	15 / 16
2026-10-14	$16.96	$167,788,552,552	16 / 16
2026-10-15	$16.96	$167,788,552,552	16 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	17	2
2026-06-01	8	16	2
2026-07-01	12	16	2
2026-08-01	12	13	2
2026-09-01	13	13	1
2026-10-01	16	12	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

4 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 10 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 13 · prior Jun 8

$390.00 → $495.00+26.9%

UBSOct 12 · prior Oct 9

$596.00 → $495.00-16.9%

Truist FinancialOct 12 · prior Jul 14

$415.00 → $475.00+14.5%

Raymond JamesOct 12 · prior Oct 7

$460.00 → $520.00+13.0%

OppenheimerOct 12 · prior Oct 9

$475.00 → $525.00+10.5%

Robert W. BairdOct 9 · prior Jul 30

$390.00 → $596.00+52.8%

BarclaysOct 9 · prior Sep 25

$515.00 → $582.00+13.0%

$0$327.80$655.60

6 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Effective share buyback program executionQualitative condition
Maintain EPS guidance of at least $9.00 for FY 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth from Illinois Medicaid HealthChoice programPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 6, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-44.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Humana outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a mix of growth and risk, as HUM is navigating a volatile management environment while expanding its healthcare services. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance despite some challenges.

What's priced into Humana

The market seems to have priced in a level of fragility due to weak execution quality, but the overall valuation remains justified. Expectations are slightly negative, indicating that investors may be cautious about future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown a commitment to maintaining adjusted earnings guidance, but the impact of regulatory challenges on the Medicare Advantage business remains a concern. The recent strong performance may not fully offset the risks posed by ongoing litigation and sector pressures.

What Humana hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on HUM's ability to raise guidance in the next quarter and the performance of sector peers like UNH and CVS. Additionally, broader economic indicators, such as job growth, will significantly impact HUM's outlook.