Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG)

NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$25.70-2.91%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Hub Group, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	968.03M
EPS	—	0.07
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$3.6B–$3.8B	3.7B
EPS	—	0.701
Capital expenditure	$40M–$50M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4B
EPS	—	1.57

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Keep capital spending between $35M and $45M in 2026	It plans to keep capital spending near $40 million.	Intact	Capital spending exceeds $45 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $8.71M FY2025-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $35M to $45M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Nov 5, 20258,710,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2025-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2025 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2025-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 quarters including 2025-Q4, 2026-Q2, and 2026-Q3. Capital expenditures were approximately $45 million in 2025 and estimated at $35 to $45 million for 2026. The trajectory shows management maintaining disciplined capital allocation consistent with prior guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain operating cash flow near $194 million	Operating cash flow was about $194 million in 2025.	Broken	Operating cash flow falls below $150 million next year	Cash from operations: $28.097M FY2025-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $194 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Nov 5, 202528,097,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2025-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2025 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2025-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 quarters including 2026-Q2 and 2026-Q3. Operating income increased from $31.5 million in 2024-Q4 to $39.4 million in 2025-Q3. Management has initiated cost reduction and efficiency programs. The trajectory shows some improvement but operating results in early 2026 were negatively impacted by costs and restatement work. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Complete financial restatements and regain SEC compliance	The company works to fix financial reports and regain SEC compliance.	Under Pressure	Failure to file restated financials by Sept 14, 2026	Restated reports not filed by Sept 14, 2026 deadline Nasdaq issued delisting notice on Sept 17, 2026, confirming non-compliance with listing rules and failure to meet the restatement deadline. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 quarters including 2025-Q4, 2026-Q2, and 2026-Q3. The Company has delayed filings for 2025 and 2026 periods and received Nasdaq delisting notices. Management expects to complete restatements and filings in Q4 2026. The trajectory shows ongoing efforts but compliance is not yet regained. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve revenue near $3.8 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Hub Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.8 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $3.65 billion in FY26	Revenue: $934.496M FY2025-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.8 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Nov 5, 2025934,496,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2025-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2025 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e0b67f54-c9b2-4841-9c78-b2d4a57b2db4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 quarters including 2025-Q4, 2026-Q2, and 2026-Q3. Revenue was approximately $3.7 billion in 2025 and management estimates $3.65 to $3.95 billion for 2026. The trajectory is consistent with management's stated growth target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$4.00B

$4.13B → $4.00B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$4,132,300,000	4 / 7
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$4,132,300,000	4 / 7
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 7
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 7
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 7
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 7
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$4,055,733,333	4 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$4,045,100,000	4 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$4,045,100,000	4 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$4,045,100,000	4 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$4,045,100,000	4 / 6
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$4,045,100,000	4 / 6
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$4,045,100,000	4 / 6
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$4,045,100,000	4 / 6
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$4,045,100,000	4 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$4,045,100,000	4 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$4,045,100,000	4 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$4,045,100,000	4 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$4,045,100,000	4 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$4,045,100,000	4 / 6
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$4,045,100,000	4 / 6
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$4,045,100,000	4 / 6
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$4,045,100,000	4 / 6
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$4,045,100,000	4 / 6
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$4,045,100,000	4 / 6
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$4,045,100,000	4 / 6
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$4,045,100,000	4 / 6
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$4,039,914,930	4 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$4,039,914,930	4 / 6
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$4,039,914,930	4 / 6
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$4,039,914,930	4 / 6
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$4,039,914,930	4 / 6
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$4,039,914,930	4 / 6
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$4,039,914,930	4 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$4,039,914,930	4 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$4,079,936,197	4 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$4,079,936,197	4 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$4,079,936,197	4 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$4,079,936,197	4 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$4,079,936,197	4 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$4,079,936,197	4 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$4,079,936,197	4 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$4,079,936,197	4 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$4,079,936,197	4 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$4,079,936,197	4 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$4,079,936,197	4 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$4,079,936,197	4 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$4,060,236,197	4 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$4,060,236,197	4 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$4,060,236,197	4 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$4,060,236,197	3 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$4,060,236,197	3 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$4,014,113,173	3 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$4,000,213,173	3 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$4,000,213,173	3 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$4,000,213,173	3 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$4,000,213,173	3 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$4,000,213,173	3 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$4,000,213,173	3 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$4,000,213,173	3 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$4,000,213,173	3 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$4,000,213,173	3 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$4,000,213,173	3 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$4,000,213,173	3 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$4,000,213,173	3 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$4,000,213,173	3 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$4,000,213,173	3 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$4,000,213,173	3 / 6
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$4,000,213,173	3 / 6
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$4,000,213,173	3 / 6
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$4,000,213,173	3 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	8	2
2026-06-01	6	8	2
2026-07-01	6	8	3
2026-08-01	5	8	2
2026-09-01	5	8	1
2026-10-01	7	8	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

2 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 6 · prior Sep 14

$35.00 → $28.00-20.0%

Stifel NicolausOct 1

$29.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysSep 28

$30.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$19.25$38.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Keep capital spending between $35M and $45M in 2026Capital expenditures: $8.71M
Maintain operating cash flow near $194 millionPublished status: Broken
Complete financial restatements and regain SEC compliancePublished status: Under Pressure
Achieve revenue near $3.8 billion in 2026Revenue: $934.496M

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-51.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Hub Group, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a logistics business with robust earnings quality, but a volatile management record and an industry backdrop marked as a headwind. The 1-3 year thesis is intact, and the signal recently improved, though the share price reaction has been down.

What's priced into Hub Group, Inc.

HUBG is marked cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear subdued relative to the valuation model. The priced-in assessment is justified, and fragility is low, but confidence in the valuation model is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent financial performance is neutral, while the latest event list includes an earnings beat and the signal has turned favorable. Management’s 2026 revenue and capital spending targets remain under watch; the more serious concern is that delayed filings and restatements are not complete, despite a stated Q4 2026 goal.

What Hub Group, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends in part on management completing restatements and restoring SEC filing compliance, while delivering its stated revenue target. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strong results and higher guidance from UPS, FDX, and EXPD would support the sector backdrop, while weaker results from those companies could remove that support.