H WORLD GROUP LTD (HTHT)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$46.23-0.17%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge H WORLD GROUP LTD’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

20.31 → 20.42 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	6.61B
EPS	—	4.354
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	27.3B
EPS	—	18.023
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	29.01B
EPS	—	20.417

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS of at least $18.69 in FY26 and $21.63 in FY27	Earnings per share rise to nearly $19 this year and $22 next year.	Intact	EPS falls below $18.50 in FY26 or below $21 in FY27	Diluted EPS: CNY 4.90 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $18.69 in FY26 and >= $21.63 in FY27. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Aug 17, 20264.9 CNY/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain positive earnings revisions and operational beats	Operational beats show improving execution.	Broken	earnings revisions turn negative and operational misses occur consecutively	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth to at least $26.9 billion in FY26	A primary condition in H WORLD GROUP LTD's published investment case. The stated target is >= $26.96 billion.	Intact	revenue falls below $26 billion in FY26	Revenue: CNY 7.121B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $26.96 billion. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Aug 17, 20267,121,000,000 CNY · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$20.42

$20.21 → $20.42 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$29.01B

$28.57B → $29.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$20.21	$28,569,447,285	6 / 14
2026-07-25	$20.21	$28,569,447,285	6 / 14
2026-07-26	$20.21	$28,569,447,285	6 / 14
2026-07-27	$20.21	$28,569,447,285	6 / 14
2026-07-28	$20.23	$28,596,565,887	6 / 14
2026-07-29	$20.23	$28,596,565,887	6 / 14
2026-07-30	$20.23	$28,596,565,887	6 / 14
2026-07-31	$20.12	$28,557,639,301	6 / 14
2026-08-01	$20.12	$28,557,639,301	6 / 14
2026-08-02	$20.12	$28,557,639,301	6 / 14
2026-08-03	$20.11	$28,589,389,597	6 / 14
2026-08-04	$20.11	$28,589,389,597	6 / 14
2026-08-05	$20.11	$28,589,389,597	6 / 14
2026-08-06	$21.48	$28,425,173,910	6 / 20
2026-08-07	$20.11	$28,589,389,597	6 / 14
2026-08-08	$21.48	$28,425,173,910	6 / 20
2026-08-09	$21.48	$28,425,173,910	6 / 20
2026-08-10	$21.48	$28,425,173,910	6 / 20
2026-08-12	$21.48	$28,415,270,710	6 / 20
2026-08-13	$20.11	$28,589,389,597	6 / 14
2026-08-14	$20.11	$28,589,389,597	6 / 14
2026-08-15	$20.11	$28,589,389,597	6 / 14
2026-08-16	$20.11	$28,589,389,597	6 / 14
2026-08-17	$20.11	$28,589,389,597	6 / 14
2026-08-18	$20.11	$28,589,389,597	6 / 14
2026-08-19	$20.11	$28,589,389,597	6 / 14
2026-08-20	$20.45	$28,916,659,622	6 / 14
2026-08-21	$20.46	$28,978,585,150	6 / 14
2026-08-22	$20.41	$28,977,936,983	6 / 14
2026-08-23	$20.41	$28,977,936,983	6 / 14
2026-08-24	$20.41	$28,977,936,983	6 / 14
2026-08-25	$20.48	$29,017,468,965	6 / 14
2026-08-26	$20.51	$29,058,307,602	6 / 14
2026-08-27	$20.51	$29,058,307,602	6 / 14
2026-08-28	$20.51	$29,058,307,602	6 / 14
2026-08-29	$20.56	$29,084,048,090	6 / 14
2026-08-30	$20.56	$29,083,369,009	6 / 14
2026-08-31	$20.56	$29,083,369,009	6 / 14
2026-09-01	$20.58	$29,179,012,779	6 / 14
2026-09-02	$20.57	$29,157,439,373	6 / 14
2026-09-03	$20.56	$29,139,255,335	6 / 14
2026-09-04	$20.56	$29,139,255,335	6 / 14
2026-09-05	$20.56	$29,139,242,253	6 / 14
2026-09-06	$20.49	$29,139,242,253	6 / 14
2026-09-07	$20.49	$29,139,242,253	6 / 14
2026-09-08	$20.52	$29,176,479,649	6 / 14
2026-09-09	$20.52	$29,182,359,238	6 / 14
2026-09-10	$20.52	$29,186,278,963	6 / 14
2026-09-11	$20.53	$29,192,158,552	6 / 14
2026-09-12	$20.55	$29,217,636,771	6 / 14
2026-09-13	$20.55	$29,217,636,771	6 / 14
2026-09-14	$20.55	$29,217,636,771	6 / 14
2026-09-15	$20.53	$29,194,118,415	6 / 14
2026-09-16	$20.53	$29,190,198,689	6 / 14
2026-09-17	$20.52	$29,178,439,512	6 / 14
2026-09-18	$20.52	$29,178,439,512	6 / 14
2026-09-19	$20.52	$29,178,439,512	6 / 14
2026-09-20	$20.53	$29,199,998,004	6 / 14
2026-09-21	$20.29	$28,856,206,578	6 / 14
2026-09-22	$20.30	$28,870,614,853	6 / 14
2026-09-23	$20.31	$28,884,267,504	6 / 14
2026-09-24	$20.31	$28,883,270,562	6 / 14
2026-09-25	$20.26	$28,814,770,337	6 / 14
2026-09-26	$20.28	$28,838,082,618	6 / 14
2026-09-27	$20.28	$28,838,082,618	6 / 14
2026-09-28	$20.30	$28,861,648,764	6 / 14
2026-09-29	$20.26	$28,817,125,332	6 / 14
2026-09-30	$20.28	$28,841,870,081	6 / 14
2026-10-01	$20.31	$28,875,965,605	6 / 14
2026-10-02	$20.30	$28,849,437,383	6 / 14
2026-10-03	$20.30	$28,853,998,968	6 / 14
2026-10-04	$20.30	$28,853,998,968	5 / 13
2026-10-05	$20.30	$28,853,884,211	5 / 13
2026-10-06	$20.30	$28,853,884,211	5 / 13
2026-10-07	$20.33	$28,888,757,636	5 / 13
2026-10-08	$20.33	$28,882,945,398	5 / 13
2026-10-09	$20.33	$28,874,037,821	5 / 13
2026-10-10	$20.33	$28,874,037,821	5 / 13
2026-10-11	$20.33	$28,872,100,616	6 / 14
2026-10-12	$20.33	$28,867,909,347	6 / 14
2026-10-13	$20.36	$28,915,969,771	6 / 14
2026-10-14	$20.38	$28,935,807,619	6 / 14
2026-10-15	$20.38	$28,935,663,755	6 / 14
2026-10-16	$20.38	$28,937,390,124	6 / 14
2026-10-17	$20.38	$28,937,390,124	6 / 14
2026-10-18	$20.38	$28,945,138,789	6 / 14
2026-10-19	$20.38	$28,945,138,789	6 / 14
2026-10-20	$20.40	$28,970,321,951	6 / 14
2026-10-21	$20.42	$28,995,505,113	6 / 14
2026-10-22	$20.42	$29,020,975,062	6 / 14
2026-10-23	$20.42	$29,011,283,960	6 / 14
2026-10-24	$20.42	$29,011,283,960	6 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	19	0	0
2026-06-01	18	0	0
2026-07-01	18	0	0
2026-08-01	19	0	0
2026-09-01	19	0	0
2026-10-01	19	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS of at least $18.69 in FY26 and $21.63 in FY27Diluted EPS: CNY 4.90 per share
Maintain positive earnings revisions and operational beatsPublished status: Broken
Revenue growth to at least $26.9 billion in FY26Revenue: CNY 7.121B

Next proof point

Nov 16, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

H WORLD GROUP LTD outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

HTHT is a growth-sensitive consumer discretionary business, with moderate risk and a neutral sector backdrop in this snapshot. Its long-term thesis is in an insufficient state because recent financial-performance history is too limited to assess.

What's priced into H WORLD GROUP LTD

The evidence does not provide a valuation level or a clear account of what the market expects, so whether the shares look cheap, fair, or expensive cannot be assessed. Fragility indicators are low, but that does not establish that expectations are modest.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term earnings risk is described as low, with a 24% miss probability, but recent earnings surprises have been erratic and are trending down. The risk label has eased from elevated to moderate; the evidence does not provide enough operating detail to judge the multi-year fundamental trajectory.

What H WORLD GROUP LTD hinges on

Near-term sector sentiment may depend on whether hotel peers MAR, HLT, and IHG continue to report strong results and guide higher, or begin missing and guiding lower. Over the multi-year view, a material slowdown in GDP growth from 2.2% to below 2% is a key risk because the sector is growth-sensitive.