HealthStream, Inc. (HSTM)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$35.16+1.65%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge HealthStream, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	82.76M
EPS	—	0.147
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$327M–$332M	329.93M
EPS	—	0.737
Capital expenditure	$31M–$34M	—
EBITDA	$74M–$78Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	344.64M
EPS	—	0.837

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effective capital return via dividends and buybacks	The share buyback and dividend increases show strong capital allocation.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.035 or buybacks cease in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Management maintains stable guidance and execution	Management reaffirms 2026 revenue guidance near $326.5 million.	Intact	Management cuts 2026 revenue or net income guidance	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance for 2026 was reaffirmed and updated from $323.0-$330.0 million at 2025-Q4 to $327.0-$332.0 million at 2026-Q2. Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased from $73.0-$77.0 million to $74.0-$78.0 million, and capital expenditures guidance remained at $31.0-$34.0 million. The trajectory shows management maintaining and slightly raising financial targets consistent with prior guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth at or above consensus	A primary condition in HealthStream, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=6.7% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 6.7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 12.55% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6.7% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202612.549062 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: aeaeb876-b629-4d75-be68-d891128fa747. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance for 2026 was reaffirmed and updated from $323.0-$330.0 million at 2025-Q4 to $327.0-$332.0 million at 2026-Q2. Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased from $73.0-$77.0 million to $74.0-$78.0 million, and capital expenditures guidance remained at $31.0-$34.0 million. The trajectory shows management maintaining and slightly raising financial targets consistent with prior guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.34B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$343,285,200	2 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$343,285,200	2 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$343,285,200	2 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$343,285,200	2 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$343,285,200	2 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$343,285,200	2 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$343,285,200	2 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$343,285,200	2 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$343,285,200	2 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$343,285,200	2 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$343,809,400	2 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$343,809,400	2 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	3
2026-06-01	2	3
2026-07-01	2	3
2026-08-01	2	3
2026-09-01	2	3
2026-10-01	2	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Effective capital return via dividends and buybacksDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Management maintains stable guidance and executionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth at or above consensusRevenue growth: 12.55%

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-24.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

HealthStream, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a smaller-cap healthcare business with strong recent financial performance and robust earnings quality, rather than a turnaround story. The multi-year view is intact, while management volatility and elevated risk remain important qualifications.

What's priced into HealthStream, Inc.

HSTM is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and an expectations gap of 0.31. The evidence labels the priced-in setup unjustified and finds low fragility, but it does not provide enough detail to say exactly what growth expectations the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management has reaffirmed and slightly raised 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, and recent performance remains in the top half of its industry. Dividend increases and initial share repurchases show progress on stated priorities, though a recent negative capital-allocation event is noted without further detail. A guidance reversal would pose a credibility risk, while weakening jobs data could add pressure to cyclical healthcare names.

What HealthStream, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on management sustaining its recently raised guidance and delivering on its stated priorities. Near term, weakening employment data is an unfavorable risk, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support healthcare-sector momentum. The evidence for the September strategic partnership and capital-allocation events is thin, so their business impact is unclear.