Harrow, Inc. (HROW)

NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-10-23

$28.44+1.03%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Harrow, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.22 → 2.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	136.84M
EPS	—	0.916
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$350M–$365M	350.28M
EPS	—	-0.073
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	531.11M
EPS	—	2.18

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve Adjusted EBITDA of $80M-$100M in 2026	It targets adjusted EBITDA near $90 million.	Improving	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $80M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA improved from negative $12.7 million in 2026-Q1 to negative $1.2 million in 2026-Q2. Management reiterated full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $80 million to $100 million. The trajectory shows improvement but Adjusted EBITDA remains negative in first half, indicating mixed progress toward full-year target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Manage debt from $50M senior notes issuance	A supporting condition in Harrow, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain manageable debt service.	Intact	Debt service issues or refinancing problems arise	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase Q2 2026 revenue to $71M-$81M	A supporting condition in Harrow, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $71M.	Broken	Q2 revenue falls below $71M	Revenue: $70.661M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $71M. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 10, 202670,661,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d4ea4910-4c69-4810-b4a2-06e8704d69c2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve 2026 revenue of $350M-$365M	A primary condition in Harrow, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$357.5M.	Intact	Revenue falls below $350M in FY26	Revenue: $70.661M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$357.5M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 202670,661,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d4ea4910-4c69-4810-b4a2-06e8704d69c2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $44.2 million in 2026-Q1 to $70.7 million in 2026-Q2. Management reiterated full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $350 million to $365 million in both quarters. The trajectory is delivering with sequential revenue growth and consistent guidance reaffirmation. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.18

$2.31 → $2.18 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.53B

$0.52B → $0.53B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.31	$515,650,125	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$2.31	$515,650,125	5 / 6
2026-07-26	$2.33	$517,465,000	5 / 6
2026-07-27	$2.33	$517,465,000	5 / 6
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$517,465,000	3 / 8
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$517,465,000	3 / 8
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$517,465,000	3 / 8
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$517,465,000	3 / 8
2026-08-01	$2.33	$517,465,000	5 / 6
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$517,465,000	3 / 8
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$517,465,000	3 / 8
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$517,465,000	3 / 8
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$517,465,000	3 / 8
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$517,465,000	3 / 8
2026-08-07	$2.33	$517,465,000	5 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$517,465,000	3 / 8
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$517,465,000	3 / 8
2026-08-10	$2.33	$517,465,000	5 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$517,465,000	3 / 8
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$517,465,000	3 / 8
2026-08-14	$2.33	$517,465,000	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$2.33	$517,465,000	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$2.33	$517,465,000	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$2.33	$517,465,000	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$2.33	$517,465,000	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$2.33	$517,465,000	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$2.25	$532,563,125	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$2.25	$532,563,125	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$2.25	$532,557,249	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$2.25	$532,557,249	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$2.25	$532,557,249	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$2.25	$532,557,249	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$2.25	$532,557,249	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$2.25	$532,557,249	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$2.25	$532,557,249	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$2.25	$532,557,249	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$2.25	$532,557,249	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$2.25	$532,557,249	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$2.25	$532,557,249	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$2.25	$532,557,249	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$2.25	$532,557,249	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$2.25	$532,557,249	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$2.25	$532,557,249	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$2.25	$532,557,249	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$2.25	$532,557,249	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$2.25	$532,557,249	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$2.25	$532,557,249	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$2.22	$540,038,000	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$2.22	$540,038,000	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$2.22	$540,038,000	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$2.22	$540,038,000	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$2.22	$540,038,000	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$2.22	$540,038,000	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$2.22	$540,038,000	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$2.22	$540,038,000	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$2.22	$540,038,000	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$2.22	$540,038,000	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$2.22	$540,038,000	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$2.22	$540,038,000	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$2.22	$540,038,000	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$2.22	$540,038,000	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$2.22	$540,038,000	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$2.20	$532,232,999	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$2.20	$532,232,999	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$2.20	$532,232,999	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$2.20	$532,232,999	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$2.20	$532,232,999	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$2.20	$532,232,999	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$2.20	$532,232,999	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$2.20	$532,232,999	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$2.20	$532,232,999	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$2.20	$532,232,999	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$2.20	$532,232,999	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$2.20	$532,232,999	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$2.20	$532,230,110	5 / 7
2026-10-08	$2.20	$532,232,999	5 / 7
2026-10-09	$2.20	$532,232,999	5 / 7
2026-10-10	$2.20	$532,232,999	5 / 7
2026-10-11	$2.20	$532,232,999	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$2.20	$532,232,999	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$2.20	$532,232,999	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$2.18	$531,110,778	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$2.18	$531,110,778	5 / 7
2026-10-16	$2.18	$531,110,778	5 / 7
2026-10-17	$2.18	$531,110,778	5 / 7
2026-10-18	$2.18	$531,110,778	5 / 7
2026-10-19	$2.18	$531,110,778	5 / 7
2026-10-20	$2.18	$531,110,778	5 / 7
2026-10-21	$2.18	$531,110,778	5 / 7
2026-10-22	$2.18	$531,110,778	5 / 7
2026-10-23	$2.18	$531,110,778	5 / 7
2026-10-24	$2.18	$531,110,778	5 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	0	0
2026-06-01	8	0	0
2026-07-01	8	0	0
2026-08-01	8	0	0
2026-09-01	9	0	0
2026-10-01	9	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve Adjusted EBITDA of $80M-$100M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Manage debt from $50M senior notes issuanceQualitative condition
Increase Q2 2026 revenue to $71M-$81MPublished status: Broken
Achieve 2026 revenue of $350M-$365MRevenue: $70.661M

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-50.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Harrow, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented healthcare business with strong recent financial performance, not yet a profitable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by revenue growth and expansion of its dry eye franchise, while elevated risk and volatile management execution keep confidence moderate.

What's priced into Harrow, Inc.

HROW trades at a substantial premium to peers, and the valuation is tagged as justified, with low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, so the current evidence suggests expectations are demanding relative to the model; the evidence does not specify exactly what growth the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results may remain uneven: the risk of an earnings miss is elevated, and recent earnings surprises have been erratic. At the same time, first-half revenue rose sequentially, VEVYE revenue and market share grew, and management reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance; TYRVAYA is expected to add revenue in 2027.

What Harrow, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on continued delivery against 2026 revenue guidance, sustained VEVYE demand, and successful integration of TYRVAYA. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, while weakening employment data could weigh on the sector; continued strong results from healthcare peers would support the backdrop.