Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE)

NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-10-15

$55.13-5.97%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+3.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.55 → 4.70 EPS · FY ending Oct 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS growth to $3.41 in FY26 and $4.00 in FY27	A supporting condition in Hewlett Packard Enterprise's published investment case. The stated target is >=3.4 USD_PER_SHARE in FY26 and >=4.0 USD_PER_SHARE in FY27.	Intact	EPS falls below $3.0 in FY26 or $3.5 in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve at least $3.5 billion in free cash flow for FY26	Free cash flow is improving, targeting at least $3.5 billion in FY26.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $3.0 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $896M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3.5 USD_BILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 3, 2026896,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Free cash flow increased from $0.7B in 2026-Q1 to $1.0B in 2026-Q3. Management raised FY26 free cash flow guidance from at least $2.0B in 2026-Q1 to $3.75B in 2026-Q3. The trajectory shows delivering progress toward the $3.5B+ target. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Increase Networking segment revenue by 72% to 75% for FY26	A primary condition in Hewlett Packard Enterprise's published investment case. The stated target is >=72% to 75% YoY growth.	Broken	Networking revenue growth falls below 60% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Networking revenue grew from $1.7B in 2025-Q3 to $2.9B in 2026-Q3, a 74.9% increase, consistent with management's raised guidance of 72% to 75% growth for FY26. The trajectory is delivering as per management's stated expectations. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Total revenue growth of 10% in FY27	A supporting condition in Hewlett Packard Enterprise's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY growth.	Intact	Total revenue growth falls below 7% in FY27	Revenue growth: 33.68% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 3, 202633.679947 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7b9b9f6e-c0f6-4f54-9c3a-b0a4a5ea0cba. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Networking revenue grew from $1.7B in 2025-Q3 to $2.9B in 2026-Q3, a 74.9% increase, consistent with management's raised guidance of 72% to 75% growth for FY26. The trajectory is delivering as per management's stated expectations. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-10-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.70

$4.01 → $4.70 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$54.71B

$49.86B → $54.71B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.01	$49,857,568,183	11 / 13
2026-07-25	$4.01	$49,857,568,183	11 / 13
2026-07-26	$4.01	$49,857,568,183	11 / 13
2026-07-27	$4.01	$49,857,568,183	11 / 13
2026-07-28	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 13
2026-07-29	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 13
2026-07-30	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 13
2026-07-31	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 13
2026-08-01	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 13
2026-08-02	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 13
2026-08-03	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 14
2026-08-04	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 14
2026-08-05	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 14
2026-08-06	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 14
2026-08-07	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 14
2026-08-08	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 14
2026-08-09	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 14
2026-08-10	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 14
2026-08-12	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 14
2026-08-13	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 14
2026-08-14	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 14
2026-08-15	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 14
2026-08-16	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 14
2026-08-17	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 14
2026-08-18	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 14
2026-08-19	$4.02	$49,987,541,710	11 / 14
2026-08-20	$4.04	$50,157,807,667	11 / 14
2026-08-21	$4.04	$50,157,807,667	11 / 14
2026-08-22	$4.04	$50,157,807,667	11 / 14
2026-08-23	$4.04	$50,157,807,667	11 / 14
2026-08-24	$4.04	$50,157,807,667	11 / 14
2026-08-25	$4.08	$50,240,642,312	11 / 14
2026-08-26	$4.08	$50,276,138,381	11 / 14
2026-08-27	$4.08	$50,276,138,381	11 / 14
2026-08-28	$4.08	$50,276,138,381	11 / 14
2026-08-29	$4.08	$50,276,138,381	11 / 14
2026-08-30	$4.08	$50,276,138,381	11 / 14
2026-08-31	$4.08	$50,276,138,381	11 / 14
2026-09-01	$4.08	$50,289,676,334	11 / 14
2026-09-02	$4.08	$50,295,669,413	11 / 14
2026-09-03	$4.24	$51,583,978,599	12 / 15
2026-09-04	$4.49	$53,496,275,353	12 / 13
2026-09-05	$4.55	$53,632,132,006	11 / 13
2026-09-06	$4.55	$53,632,132,006	11 / 12
2026-09-07	$4.55	$53,632,132,006	11 / 12
2026-09-08	$4.55	$53,877,589,901	11 / 12
2026-09-09	$4.55	$54,058,642,532	11 / 13
2026-09-10	$4.55	$54,058,627,985	11 / 14
2026-09-11	$4.55	$54,058,627,985	11 / 14
2026-09-12	$4.55	$54,058,627,985	11 / 14
2026-09-13	$4.55	$54,058,627,985	11 / 14
2026-09-14	$4.55	$54,058,627,985	11 / 14
2026-09-15	$4.55	$54,058,627,985	11 / 14
2026-09-16	$4.60	$54,316,662,873	11 / 14
2026-09-17	$4.60	$54,316,666,570	11 / 14
2026-09-18	$4.60	$54,316,666,570	11 / 14
2026-09-19	$4.60	$54,316,666,570	11 / 14
2026-09-20	$4.60	$54,316,666,570	11 / 14
2026-09-21	$4.60	$54,316,666,570	11 / 14
2026-09-22	$4.60	$54,316,666,570	11 / 14
2026-09-23	$4.60	$54,316,666,570	11 / 14
2026-09-24	$4.60	$54,316,666,570	11 / 14
2026-09-25	$4.60	$54,362,263,066	12 / 15
2026-09-26	$4.60	$54,362,263,066	12 / 15
2026-09-27	$4.60	$54,362,263,066	12 / 15
2026-09-28	$4.60	$54,362,263,066	12 / 15
2026-09-29	$4.60	$54,362,263,066	12 / 15
2026-09-30	$4.60	$54,362,263,066	12 / 15
2026-10-01	$4.61	$54,449,578,856	12 / 15
2026-10-02	$4.69	$54,662,358,016	12 / 15
2026-10-03	$4.69	$54,677,200,121	12 / 15
2026-10-04	$4.69	$54,677,200,121	12 / 16
2026-10-05	$4.69	$54,677,200,121	12 / 16
2026-10-06	$4.70	$54,705,552,753	12 / 16
2026-10-07	$4.70	$54,705,552,753	12 / 16
2026-10-08	$4.70	$54,705,552,753	12 / 16
2026-10-09	$4.70	$54,705,538,206	12 / 16
2026-10-10	$4.70	$54,705,538,206	12 / 16
2026-10-11	$4.70	$54,705,538,206	12 / 16
2026-10-12	$4.70	$54,705,538,206	12 / 16
2026-10-13	$4.70	$54,705,538,206	12 / 16
2026-10-14	$4.70	$54,705,538,206	12 / 16
2026-10-15	$4.70	$54,705,538,206	12 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	12	2
2026-06-01	13	11	2
2026-07-01	13	10	0
2026-08-01	15	9	0
2026-09-01	15	10	0
2026-10-01	15	10	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades1 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 9 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 14 · prior Oct 1

$83.00 → $77.00-7.2%

SusquehannaOct 2 · prior Jun 2

$65.00 → $70.00+7.7%

UBSOct 1 · prior Sep 3

$59.00 → $66.00+11.9%

Truist FinancialOct 1 · prior Sep 3

$70.00 → $75.00+7.1%

Morgan StanleyOct 1 · prior Sep 3

$67.00 → $72.00+7.5%

Evercore ISIOct 1 · prior Sep 3

$65.00 → $67.00+3.1%

DaiwaOct 1

$75.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoSep 30 · prior Sep 3

$54.00 → $63.00+16.7%

$0$45.65$91.30

6 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS growth to $3.41 in FY26 and $4.00 in FY27Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve at least $3.5 billion in free cash flow for FY26Free cash flow: $896M
Increase Networking segment revenue by 72% to 75% for FY26Published status: Broken
Total revenue growth of 10% in FY27Revenue growth: 33.68%

Next proof point

Dec 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Hewlett Packard Enterprise outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on technology growth. The current thesis is intact, driven by strong revenue and profitability growth, particularly in AI and Networking.

What's priced into Hewlett Packard Enterprise

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation compared to peers, with an expectations gap indicating some caution. The current valuation suggests that while HPE is seen as cheap versus its peers, there is a medium level of confidence in its financial models.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve its goals, with strong revenue growth and improved free cash flow. However, there is an elevated risk due to potential guidance cuts, which could negatively impact estimates.

What Hewlett Packard Enterprise hinges on

The thesis hinges on favorable scenarios such as potential Fed rate cuts and continued strong performance from sector peers. Conversely, a negative shift could occur if HPE lowers its guidance in the upcoming earnings call.