HCA Healthcare (HCA)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$458.84-2.06%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge HCA Healthcare’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

32.05 → 32.11 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Continue share buybacks under $10B program	It keeps buying back shares with a $10 billion program and pays rising dividends, now $0.78 per share.	Intact	Buybacks cease or fall materially below program pace	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain capital expenditures between $5.0B and $5.5B	A supporting condition in HCA Healthcare's published investment case. The stated target is $5.0B to $5.5B.	Under Pressure	Capex exceeds $5.5B or falls below $5.0B materially	Capital expenditures: $1.231B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $5.0B to $5.5B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20261,231,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Capital expenditures have been consistently around $1.1 to $1.5 billion per quarter, totaling approximately $4.8 billion in the first two quarters of 2026, supporting the maintained annual guidance of $5.0 to $5.5 billion. The trajectory shows disciplined capital spending aligned with management's stated target. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Sustain quarterly dividends at $0.78 per share	It keeps buying back shares with a $10 billion program and pays rising dividends, now $0.78 per share.	Intact	Dividend falls below $0.78 per share quarterly	Dividend per share: $0.78 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $0.78 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20260.78 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d2f12c41-7fa4-4610-8327-602019d34678. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. The quarterly dividend increased from $0.72 per share in 2025-Q2 to $0.78 per share in 2026-Q1 and Q2. Management has consistently declared and paid dividends, funding them from cash balances and operating cash flows, demonstrating delivery on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve 2026 revenue near $77.25 billion	A primary condition in HCA Healthcare's published investment case. The stated target is ~$77.25B.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $76.5B in FY26	Revenue: $20.23B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$77.25B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 202620,230,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d2f12c41-7fa4-4610-8327-602019d34678. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$32.11

$32.74 → $32.11 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$81.52B

$82.00B → $81.52B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$32.74	$81,999,988,850	22 / 21
2026-07-25	$32.90	$81,974,895,947	15 / 18
2026-07-26	$32.86	$81,865,514,995	15 / 18
2026-07-27	$32.85	$81,848,986,662	15 / 18
2026-07-28	$32.75	$81,774,536,287	15 / 18
2026-07-29	$32.75	$81,774,536,287	15 / 18
2026-07-30	$32.18	$81,660,871,810	22 / 22
2026-07-31	$32.18	$81,660,871,810	22 / 22
2026-08-01	$32.25	$81,607,284,599	15 / 18
2026-08-02	$32.16	$81,634,326,350	22 / 22
2026-08-03	$32.16	$81,634,326,350	22 / 22
2026-08-04	$32.23	$81,579,475,075	15 / 18
2026-08-05	$32.16	$81,634,326,350	22 / 22
2026-08-06	$32.16	$81,634,326,350	22 / 22
2026-08-07	$32.23	$81,579,475,075	15 / 18
2026-08-08	$32.16	$81,634,326,350	22 / 22
2026-08-09	$32.16	$81,634,326,350	22 / 22
2026-08-10	$32.16	$81,634,326,350	22 / 22
2026-08-12	$32.23	$81,579,475,075	15 / 18
2026-08-13	$32.23	$81,579,475,075	15 / 18
2026-08-14	$32.23	$81,579,475,075	15 / 18
2026-08-15	$32.23	$81,579,475,075	15 / 18
2026-08-16	$32.23	$81,579,475,075	15 / 18
2026-08-17	$32.23	$81,579,475,075	15 / 18
2026-08-18	$32.23	$81,579,475,075	15 / 18
2026-08-19	$32.23	$81,579,475,075	15 / 18
2026-08-20	$32.22	$81,586,000,404	15 / 18
2026-08-21	$32.18	$81,562,190,880	15 / 18
2026-08-22	$32.18	$81,562,190,880	15 / 18
2026-08-23	$32.18	$81,562,190,880	15 / 18
2026-08-24	$32.18	$81,562,190,880	15 / 18
2026-08-25	$32.18	$81,562,190,880	15 / 18
2026-08-26	$32.18	$81,562,190,880	15 / 18
2026-08-27	$32.18	$81,562,190,880	15 / 18
2026-08-28	$32.18	$81,562,190,880	15 / 18
2026-08-29	$32.18	$81,562,190,880	15 / 18
2026-08-30	$32.13	$81,503,400,424	15 / 18
2026-08-31	$32.13	$81,503,400,424	15 / 18
2026-09-01	$32.13	$81,503,400,424	15 / 18
2026-09-02	$32.13	$81,503,400,424	15 / 18
2026-09-03	$32.09	$81,518,776,924	15 / 18
2026-09-04	$32.09	$81,518,776,924	15 / 18
2026-09-05	$32.09	$81,518,776,924	15 / 18
2026-09-06	$32.09	$81,518,776,924	15 / 18
2026-09-07	$32.09	$81,518,776,924	15 / 18
2026-09-08	$32.09	$81,518,776,924	15 / 18
2026-09-09	$32.09	$81,518,776,924	15 / 18
2026-09-10	$32.09	$81,518,776,924	15 / 18
2026-09-11	$32.09	$81,518,776,924	15 / 18
2026-09-12	$32.09	$81,518,776,924	15 / 18
2026-09-13	$32.09	$81,518,776,924	15 / 18
2026-09-14	$32.09	$81,518,776,924	15 / 18
2026-09-15	$32.05	$81,559,242,804	15 / 18
2026-09-16	$32.05	$81,559,242,804	15 / 18
2026-09-17	$32.05	$81,559,242,804	15 / 18
2026-09-18	$32.05	$81,559,242,804	15 / 18
2026-09-19	$32.05	$81,559,242,804	15 / 18
2026-09-20	$32.05	$81,552,142,804	15 / 18
2026-09-21	$32.05	$81,552,142,804	15 / 18
2026-09-22	$32.05	$81,552,142,804	15 / 18
2026-09-23	$32.05	$81,552,142,804	15 / 18
2026-09-24	$32.04	$81,543,469,337	15 / 18
2026-09-25	$32.04	$81,543,469,337	16 / 18
2026-09-26	$32.04	$81,543,469,337	16 / 19
2026-09-27	$32.04	$81,543,469,337	16 / 19
2026-09-28	$32.04	$81,543,469,337	16 / 19
2026-09-29	$32.04	$81,543,564,576	16 / 19
2026-09-30	$32.04	$81,543,564,576	16 / 19
2026-10-01	$32.04	$81,543,564,576	16 / 19
2026-10-02	$32.04	$81,543,564,576	16 / 19
2026-10-03	$32.04	$81,543,564,576	16 / 19
2026-10-04	$32.04	$81,543,564,576	16 / 19
2026-10-05	$32.04	$81,543,564,576	16 / 19
2026-10-06	$32.04	$81,543,564,576	16 / 19
2026-10-07	$32.03	$81,543,564,718	16 / 19
2026-10-08	$32.03	$81,543,564,718	16 / 19
2026-10-09	$32.08	$81,535,629,958	16 / 19
2026-10-10	$32.08	$81,535,629,958	16 / 19
2026-10-11	$32.08	$81,535,629,958	16 / 19
2026-10-12	$32.08	$81,535,629,958	16 / 19
2026-10-13	$32.11	$81,521,766,322	16 / 19
2026-10-14	$32.11	$81,521,766,322	16 / 19
2026-10-15	$32.11	$81,521,766,322	16 / 19

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	15	9	1
2026-06-01	15	9	1
2026-07-01	15	10	1
2026-08-01	14	10	1
2026-09-01	15	10	1
2026-10-01	15	10	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 7 · prior Jul 15

$435.00 → $496.00+14.0%

BMO CapitalSep 22

$495.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$272.80$545.60

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Continue share buybacks under $10B programRequired source inputs unavailable
Maintain capital expenditures between $5.0B and $5.5BPublished status: Under Pressure
Sustain quarterly dividends at $0.78 per shareDividend per share: $0.78 per share
Achieve 2026 revenue near $77.25 billionPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

HCA Healthcare outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on stable revenue growth and disciplined capital allocation. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance.

What's priced into HCA Healthcare

The market currently prices HCA as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that some positive performance is already anticipated. There is low fragility in the stock's current pricing, suggesting that it is not overly sensitive to immediate market changes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, given management's mixed track record in reaffirming revenue and earnings guidance. The company has shown strong recent financial performance, although there is a moderate risk of missing future estimates.

What HCA Healthcare hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on its capital allocation priorities. Additionally, sector performance and broader economic indicators, such as job reports, will significantly influence HCA's trajectory.