HAWKEYE 360 INC (HAWK)

NYSEInformation TechnologyAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-16

$12.44-3.49%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 16, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge HAWKEYE 360 INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+155.8% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.01 → 0.03 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 16, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow improvement	The company is improving cash flow, now at $5.4 million.	Intact	Free cash flow turns negative again	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net loss increased from $9.0 million in 2026-Q1 to $15.3 million in 2026-Q2, while Adjusted EBITDA declined slightly from $7.8 million prior year to $7.0 million in 2026-Q2. Free cash flow improved from negative $1.3 million prior year to positive $5.4 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows mixed results with improved cash flow but increased net losses. Delivery assessment Oct 16, 2026
New contract awards in satellite data services	Strong demand for satellite data services supports growth.	Intact	No new contracts awarded in the next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $49.8 million in 2026-Q1 to $49.8 million in 2026-Q2, an 87% increase year-over-year, with record international revenue up 134%. Backlog increased slightly from $285.0 million to $292.2 million. The trajectory shows delivering strong revenue growth and expanding customer demand. Delivery assessment Oct 16, 2026
Revenue growth from satellite data services	Strong demand for satellite data services supports growth.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $215 million by December	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $49.8 million in 2026-Q1 to $49.8 million in 2026-Q2, an 87% increase year-over-year, with record international revenue up 134%. Backlog increased slightly from $285.0 million to $292.2 million. The trajectory shows delivering strong revenue growth and expanding customer demand. Delivery assessment Oct 16, 2026

Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.03

$0.17 → $0.03 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.27B

$0.27B → $0.27B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-08	$0.17	$267,945,250	7 / 10
2026-08-09	$0.17	$267,945,250	7 / 10
2026-08-10	$0.17	$267,945,250	7 / 10
2026-08-12	$0.12	$267,761,391	5 / 7
2026-08-13	$0.12	$267,761,391	5 / 7
2026-08-14	$0.12	$267,761,391	5 / 7
2026-08-15	$0.12	$267,761,391	5 / 7
2026-08-16	$0.12	$267,761,391	5 / 7
2026-08-17	$0.12	$267,761,391	5 / 7
2026-08-18	$0.12	$267,761,391	5 / 7
2026-08-19	$0.12	$267,761,391	5 / 7
2026-08-20	$0.10	$270,574,619	5 / 7
2026-08-21	$0.10	$270,598,776	5 / 7
2026-08-22	$0.10	$270,598,776	5 / 7
2026-08-23	$0.10	$270,598,776	5 / 7
2026-08-24	$0.10	$270,598,776	5 / 7
2026-08-25	$0.10	$270,598,776	5 / 7
2026-08-26	$0.10	$270,598,776	5 / 7
2026-08-27	$0.10	$270,598,776	5 / 7
2026-08-28	$0.10	$270,598,776	5 / 7
2026-08-29	$0.10	$270,598,776	5 / 7
2026-08-30	$0.10	$270,598,776	5 / 7
2026-08-31	$0.10	$270,598,776	5 / 7
2026-09-01	$0.10	$270,598,776	5 / 7
2026-09-02	$0.10	$270,598,776	5 / 7
2026-09-03	$0.10	$270,598,776	5 / 7
2026-09-04	$0.07	$271,538,899	5 / 7
2026-09-05	$0.07	$271,538,899	5 / 7
2026-09-06	$0.07	$271,538,899	5 / 7
2026-09-07	$0.07	$271,538,899	5 / 7
2026-09-08	$0.07	$271,538,899	5 / 7
2026-09-09	$0.07	$271,538,899	5 / 7
2026-09-10	$0.01	$271,583,188	5 / 7
2026-09-11	$0.01	$271,583,187	5 / 7
2026-09-12	$0.01	$271,583,187	5 / 7
2026-09-13	$0.01	$271,583,187	5 / 7
2026-09-14	$0.01	$271,583,187	5 / 7
2026-09-15	$0.01	$271,583,187	5 / 7
2026-09-16	$0.01	$271,583,187	5 / 7
2026-09-17	$0.01	$271,583,187	5 / 7
2026-09-18	$0.01	$271,583,187	5 / 7
2026-09-19	$0.03	$271,709,912	5 / 7
2026-09-20	$0.03	$271,709,912	5 / 7
2026-09-21	$0.03	$271,709,912	5 / 7
2026-09-22	$0.03	$271,709,912	5 / 7
2026-09-23	$0.03	$271,709,912	5 / 7
2026-09-24	$0.03	$271,709,912	5 / 7
2026-09-25	$0.03	$271,709,912	5 / 7
2026-09-26	$0.03	$271,709,912	5 / 7
2026-09-27	$0.03	$271,709,912	5 / 7
2026-09-28	$0.03	$271,709,912	5 / 7
2026-09-29	$0.03	$271,709,912	5 / 7
2026-09-30	$0.03	$271,709,912	5 / 7
2026-10-01	$0.03	$271,709,912	5 / 7
2026-10-02	$0.03	$271,709,912	5 / 7
2026-10-03	$0.03	$271,709,912	5 / 7
2026-10-04	$0.03	$271,709,912	5 / 7
2026-10-05	$0.03	$271,709,912	5 / 7
2026-10-06	$0.03	$271,709,912	5 / 7
2026-10-07	$0.03	$271,708,330	5 / 7
2026-10-08	$0.03	$271,708,330	5 / 7
2026-10-09	$0.03	$271,708,330	5 / 7
2026-10-10	$0.03	$271,690,148	5 / 7
2026-10-11	$0.03	$271,690,148	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$0.03	$271,690,148	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$0.03	$271,690,148	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$0.03	$271,690,148	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$0.03	$271,690,148	5 / 7
2026-10-16	$0.03	$271,690,148	5 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-06-01	7	2
2026-07-01	8	1
2026-08-01	8	1
2026-09-01	10	1
2026-10-01	11	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 17–Oct 16 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 15

$22.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$12.10$24.20

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 17, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow improvementDirect metric needs a verified mapping
New contract awards in satellite data servicesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth from satellite data servicesPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-64.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

HAWKEYE 360 INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a mix of growth and risk, focusing on the satellite data services sector. The current thesis state is characterized by low confidence due to mixed recent performance and elevated risks.

What's priced into HAWKEYE 360 INC

The market appears to have low expectations for fragility, as no significant fragility gates have been triggered. However, the recent changes in confidence suggest that investors are cautious about future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on driving revenue growth in satellite data services, with recent results showing strong year-over-year growth. However, there are mixed results in improving operating efficiency, as net losses have increased despite better cash flow.

What HAWKEYE 360 INC hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and the performance of sector bellwether ASTC. Additionally, any guidance cuts from HAWK could negatively impact investor sentiment.