NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-10-15
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ
A valuation that evolves as the business changes.
A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.
View Living FV report and workflow4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Reach adjusted EBITDA of $1.40-$1.45 billion in fiscal 2026 | EBITDA is expected near $1.4 billion to $1.45 billion. | Intact | EBITDA falls below $1.35 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage legal risks related to AI voice rights and brand reputation | A supporting condition in Hasbro's published investment case. The stated target is No material legal penalties or brand damage. | Intact | Material legal penalties or sustained brand damage reported | No material penalties reported Union demands on AI usage; no regulatory fines or material brand damage events detected in recent news. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve adjusted operating margin of 24%-25% in fiscal 2026 | The company targets a strong operating margin of 24%-25%. | Intact | Operating margin falls below 22% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Adjusted operating margin guidance increased from 24-25% in 2026-Q1 to 25-26% in 2026-Q2. Operating income was $270M in 2026-Q1 and $253M in 2026-Q2, reflecting strong profitability despite minor quarter-to-quarter variation. The trajectory is delivering with margin expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026 |
Grow total revenue by 3%-5% in fiscal 2026 | Hasbro aims to grow revenue by 3%-5% in fiscal 2026. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 13.81% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 3%-5% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202613.810742 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f50107e7-201c-4e41-a178-eb4a555aab86. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
Comparable estimate history is unavailable.
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Compare required revenue and earningsLatest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Oct 20, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment is a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue growth and margin improvement. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and management's commitment to growth targets.
The market appears to be pricing in a stretched valuation compared to peers, with expectations that are slightly optimistic. There is a low level of fragility in the current setup, indicating that the stock is not overly sensitive to negative news.
Management is on track to achieve its revenue and margin goals, with recent financial performance showing consistent growth. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, especially as the industry has seen peers struggle recently.
The thesis hinges on maintaining revenue growth and margin expansion while navigating sector headwinds. Key factors include the performance of sector bellwethers and the potential impact of inflation on consumer spending.
Overall, Hasbro's fundamentals are showing promise, but the company faces challenges that could affect its trajectory. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.