Halliburton (HAL)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$33.50+1.85%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Halliburton’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.89 → 2.88 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Share repurchases continue at >= $100M per quarter	A supporting condition in Halliburton's published investment case. The stated target is >=100 USD_MILLIONS per quarter.	Intact	Share repurchases fall below $100M per quarter	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow >= $1.857B in FY26	Free cash flow is expected to rise to $1.857 billion in 2026, showing strong cash generation.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $1.857B in FY26	Free cash flow: $589M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1857 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 2026589,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of the supplied transcript quarters. Revenue was $5.4 billion in 2026-Q1 and $5.7 billion in 2026-Q2. The sequential revenue increase is measurable operating progress, but the supplied disclosures do not give a specific dollar milestone for returns or capital discipline this quarter, so evidence of delivery on this commitment remains limited. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operating margin >= 13% next quarter	The company guides revenue above $5.4 billion and operating margin at least 13% next quarter.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 13% next quarter	Operating margin: 13.62% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=13%. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Jul 24, 202613.615681 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c4cb49b6-26a5-49d6-a476-88d7e1180251. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of the supplied transcript quarters. Revenue was $5.4 billion in 2026-Q1 and $5.7 billion in 2026-Q2. The sequential revenue increase is measurable operating progress, but the supplied disclosures do not give a specific dollar milestone for returns or capital discipline this quarter, so evidence of delivery on this commitment remains limited. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue >= $5.4B next quarter	The company guides revenue above $5.4 billion and operating margin at least 13% next quarter.	Intact	Revenue falls below $5.4B next quarter	Revenue: $5.714B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5.4 USD_BILLIONS. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Jul 24, 20265,714,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c4cb49b6-26a5-49d6-a476-88d7e1180251. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.88

$2.92 → $2.88 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$23.56B

$23.59B → $23.56B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.92	$23,590,786,888	16 / 18
2026-07-25	$2.93	$23,604,691,610	25 / 23
2026-07-26	$2.92	$23,590,786,888	16 / 18
2026-07-27	$2.92	$23,590,786,888	16 / 18
2026-07-28	$2.91	$23,573,266,696	16 / 18
2026-07-29	$2.91	$23,571,168,910	25 / 23
2026-07-30	$2.91	$23,571,168,910	25 / 23
2026-07-31	$2.90	$23,558,659,238	16 / 18
2026-08-01	$2.90	$23,558,659,238	16 / 18
2026-08-02	$2.91	$23,571,168,910	25 / 23
2026-08-03	$2.91	$23,571,168,910	25 / 23
2026-08-04	$2.91	$23,571,168,910	25 / 23
2026-08-05	$2.90	$23,558,659,238	16 / 18
2026-08-06	$2.91	$23,571,168,910	25 / 23
2026-08-07	$2.90	$23,558,659,238	16 / 18
2026-08-08	$2.91	$23,571,168,910	25 / 23
2026-08-09	$2.91	$23,571,168,910	25 / 23
2026-08-10	$2.91	$23,571,168,910	25 / 23
2026-08-12	$2.90	$23,558,659,238	16 / 18
2026-08-13	$2.91	$23,571,168,910	25 / 23
2026-08-14	$2.90	$23,558,659,238	16 / 18
2026-08-15	$2.90	$23,558,659,238	16 / 18
2026-08-16	$2.90	$23,558,659,238	16 / 18
2026-08-17	$2.90	$23,558,659,238	16 / 18
2026-08-18	$2.90	$23,558,659,238	16 / 18
2026-08-19	$2.90	$23,558,659,238	16 / 18
2026-08-20	$2.90	$23,574,659,238	16 / 18
2026-08-21	$2.89	$23,572,956,966	16 / 18
2026-08-22	$2.89	$23,572,956,966	16 / 18
2026-08-23	$2.89	$23,572,956,966	16 / 18
2026-08-24	$2.89	$23,572,956,966	16 / 18
2026-08-25	$2.89	$23,572,956,966	16 / 18
2026-08-26	$2.89	$23,572,956,966	16 / 18
2026-08-27	$2.89	$23,572,956,966	16 / 18
2026-08-28	$2.89	$23,572,956,966	16 / 18
2026-08-29	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-08-30	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-08-31	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-01	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-02	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-03	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-04	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-05	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-06	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-07	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-08	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-09	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-10	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-11	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-12	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-13	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-14	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-15	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-16	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-17	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-18	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-19	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-20	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-21	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-22	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-23	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-24	$2.89	$23,569,957,976	16 / 18
2026-09-25	$2.89	$23,576,307,952	16 / 18
2026-09-26	$2.89	$23,576,307,952	16 / 18
2026-09-27	$2.89	$23,576,307,952	16 / 18
2026-09-28	$2.89	$23,576,307,952	16 / 18
2026-09-29	$2.88	$23,558,724,619	16 / 18
2026-09-30	$2.88	$23,558,724,619	16 / 18
2026-10-01	$2.88	$23,560,545,452	16 / 18
2026-10-02	$2.88	$23,560,503,786	16 / 18
2026-10-03	$2.88	$23,560,503,786	16 / 18
2026-10-04	$2.88	$23,560,503,786	16 / 18
2026-10-05	$2.88	$23,560,503,786	16 / 18
2026-10-06	$2.88	$23,559,253,786	16 / 18
2026-10-07	$2.88	$23,559,253,786	16 / 18
2026-10-08	$2.88	$23,565,480,869	16 / 18
2026-10-09	$2.88	$23,565,480,869	16 / 18
2026-10-10	$2.88	$23,565,480,869	16 / 18
2026-10-11	$2.88	$23,565,480,869	16 / 18
2026-10-12	$2.88	$23,565,480,869	16 / 18
2026-10-13	$2.88	$23,565,480,869	16 / 18
2026-10-14	$2.88	$23,565,480,869	16 / 18
2026-10-15	$2.88	$23,562,646,528	16 / 18

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	20	5	3
2026-06-01	20	5	3
2026-07-01	21	6	2
2026-08-01	21	6	1
2026-09-01	21	6	1
2026-10-01	21	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Share repurchases continue at >= $100M per quarterRequired source inputs unavailable
Free cash flow >= $1.857B in FY26Free cash flow: $589M
Operating margin >= 13% next quarterOperating margin: 13.62%
Revenue >= $5.4B next quarterRevenue: $5.714B

Next proof point

Oct 20, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Halliburton outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on returns and capital discipline. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial results and ongoing management priorities.

What's priced into Halliburton

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation compared to peers, with a slight expectation gap. The stock is seen as cheap relative to its competitors, but the execution quality is considered fragile.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, given management's consistent focus on returns and capital discipline. Recent financial performance has shown growth, but there is a moderate risk of guidance cuts that could negatively impact sentiment.

What Halliburton hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including inflation trends and the performance of sector bellwethers like SLB, BKR, and FTI. Positive earnings from these companies could support HAL, while any cuts in guidance could lead to negative market reactions.