W. W. Grainger (GWW)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-15

$1330.70-0.04%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge W. W. Grainger’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

51.08 → 51.13 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS near $45.25 in 2026	A primary condition in W. W. Grainger's published investment case. The stated target is >= $44.25.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $44.25 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $12.01 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $44.25. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202612.01 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 32cd9f2c-38da-46cc-b58f-41e226e9f30f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow near $2.3 billion	Free cash flow remains healthy around $2.3 billion, enabling steady investment and returns.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $2.125 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $333M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.125 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026333,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin at or above 15.6%	Profit margins stay strong near 16%, supported by operating margin guidance of 15.6% to 16.0%.	Under Pressure	Operating margin falls below 15.6% in FY26	Operating margin: 16.07% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 15.6%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202616.072496 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 32cd9f2c-38da-46cc-b58f-41e226e9f30f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full year 2026 revenue near $19.5 billion	Grainger grows revenue about 8.6% a year, reaching nearly $19.5 billion in 2026.	Under Pressure	Annual revenue falls below $19.2 billion in FY26	Revenue: $5.021B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $19.5 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20265,021,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 32cd9f2c-38da-46cc-b58f-41e226e9f30f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$51.13

$50.43 → $51.13 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$21.09B

$20.80B → $21.09B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$50.43	$20,796,313,596	12 / 14
2026-07-25	$50.48	$20,822,688,210	19 / 18
2026-07-26	$50.43	$20,796,315,718	12 / 14
2026-07-27	$50.43	$20,796,315,718	12 / 14
2026-07-28	$50.43	$20,796,315,718	12 / 14
2026-07-29	$50.43	$20,796,315,718	13 / 14
2026-07-30	$50.48	$20,822,688,210	19 / 18
2026-07-31	$50.48	$20,822,688,210	19 / 18
2026-08-01	$50.43	$20,796,315,718	13 / 14
2026-08-02	$50.48	$20,822,688,210	19 / 18
2026-08-03	$50.48	$20,822,688,210	19 / 18
2026-08-04	$50.48	$20,822,688,210	19 / 18
2026-08-05	$50.48	$20,822,688,210	19 / 18
2026-08-06	$50.43	$20,796,315,718	13 / 14
2026-08-07	$50.83	$20,973,289,029	13 / 14
2026-08-08	$50.93	$21,016,565,350	19 / 18
2026-08-09	$50.93	$21,016,565,350	19 / 18
2026-08-10	$50.93	$21,016,565,350	19 / 18
2026-08-12	$50.83	$20,973,289,029	13 / 14
2026-08-13	$51.03	$21,042,324,280	19 / 18
2026-08-14	$50.83	$20,973,289,029	13 / 14
2026-08-15	$50.83	$20,973,289,029	13 / 14
2026-08-16	$50.83	$20,973,289,029	13 / 14
2026-08-17	$50.83	$20,973,289,029	13 / 14
2026-08-18	$50.83	$20,973,289,029	13 / 14
2026-08-19	$50.83	$20,973,289,029	13 / 14
2026-08-20	$51.08	$21,061,064,818	13 / 14
2026-08-21	$51.08	$21,061,064,818	13 / 14
2026-08-22	$51.08	$21,061,064,818	13 / 14
2026-08-23	$51.08	$21,061,064,818	13 / 14
2026-08-24	$51.08	$21,061,064,818	13 / 14
2026-08-25	$51.08	$21,068,593,069	13 / 14
2026-08-26	$51.08	$21,068,593,069	13 / 14
2026-08-27	$51.08	$21,068,593,069	13 / 14
2026-08-28	$51.08	$21,068,593,069	13 / 14
2026-08-29	$51.08	$21,068,593,069	13 / 14
2026-08-30	$51.08	$21,068,593,069	13 / 14
2026-08-31	$51.08	$21,068,593,069	13 / 14
2026-09-01	$51.08	$21,068,593,069	13 / 14
2026-09-02	$51.08	$21,068,593,069	13 / 14
2026-09-03	$51.08	$21,068,593,069	13 / 14
2026-09-04	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-05	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-06	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-07	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-08	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-09	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-10	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-11	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-12	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-13	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-14	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-15	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-16	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-17	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-18	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-19	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-20	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-21	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-22	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-23	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-24	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-25	$51.08	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-26	$51.00	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-27	$51.00	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-28	$51.00	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-29	$50.97	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-09-30	$50.97	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-10-01	$50.97	$21,068,584,613	13 / 14
2026-10-02	$51.02	$21,065,973,933	13 / 14
2026-10-03	$51.02	$21,065,973,933	13 / 14
2026-10-04	$51.02	$21,065,973,933	13 / 14
2026-10-05	$51.02	$21,065,973,933	13 / 14
2026-10-06	$51.02	$21,065,973,933	13 / 14
2026-10-07	$51.03	$21,068,536,433	13 / 14
2026-10-08	$51.03	$21,068,536,433	13 / 14
2026-10-09	$51.03	$21,068,536,433	13 / 14
2026-10-10	$51.03	$21,068,536,433	13 / 14
2026-10-11	$51.03	$21,068,536,433	13 / 14
2026-10-12	$51.03	$21,068,536,433	13 / 14
2026-10-13	$51.08	$21,073,286,433	13 / 14
2026-10-14	$51.13	$21,090,861,433	13 / 14
2026-10-15	$51.13	$21,091,517,683	13 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	12	3
2026-06-01	4	11	3
2026-07-01	4	14	3
2026-08-01	3	14	2
2026-09-01	4	14	2
2026-10-01	4	13	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysSep 25 · prior Aug 11

$1185.00 → $1172.00-1.1%

$0$651.75$1303.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS near $45.25 in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Free cash flow near $2.3 billionFree cash flow: $333M
Operating margin at or above 15.6%Published status: Under Pressure
Full year 2026 revenue near $19.5 billionPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-13.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

W. W. Grainger outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable, long-term thesis focused on a company with strong recent financial performance. GWW has demonstrated consistent revenue and earnings growth, but the current state is cautious due to sector challenges.

What's priced into W. W. Grainger

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly above average compared to peers. There is a low level of fragility, suggesting that the stock is not overly sensitive to negative news at this time.

What the fundamentals likely do

GWW's fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management has consistently raised guidance for revenue, earnings per share, and operating margins. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, which could impact investor confidence.

What W. W. Grainger hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like FAST, FERG, and WCC. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support GWW's growth; conversely, any negative guidance from them could pose risks.