Guidewire Software (GWRE)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$189.00-0.34%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Guidewire Software’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.34 → 5.34 EPS · FY ending Jul 31, 2028 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	$372M–$378M	376.4M
Subscription and support revenue	$279M–$283M	—
EPS	—	0.747
Operating income	$19M–$25MGAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	$1.71B–$1.73B	1.72B
Subscription and support revenue	$1.24B–$1.25B	—
EPS	—	4.189
Operating cash flow	$445M–$465M	—
Operating income	$197M–$217MGAAP $403M–$423Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.99B
EPS	—	5.338

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow near $365M-$380M	Free cash flow guidance also improved to $365M-$380M.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $360M in fiscal Q2 2026	Free cash flow: $276.7M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $365M free cash flow. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Sep 11, 2026276,700,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain raised revenue and cash flow guidance	Free cash flow guidance also improved to $365M-$380M.	Intact	Guidance cut or downward revision in next 2 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income near $129M	Profit margins are expected to rise with operating income guidance raised.	Intact	operating income falls below $120M in fiscal Q2 2026	Operating income: $62.319M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$129M operating income. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Sep 11, 202662,319,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Fiscal year revenue near $1.46B-$1.47B	A primary condition in Guidewire Software's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.46B revenue.	Intact	revenue falls below $1.40B in fiscal Q2 2026	Revenue: $411.088M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.46B revenue. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Sep 11, 2026411,088,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$5.34

$5.11 → $5.34 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$1.99B

$1.97B → $1.99B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-01	$5.11	$1,967,775,225	6 / 13
2026-08-02	$5.11	$1,967,775,225	6 / 13
2026-08-03	$5.11	$1,967,775,225	6 / 13
2026-08-04	$5.11	$1,967,775,225	6 / 13
2026-08-05	$5.11	$1,967,775,225	6 / 13
2026-08-06	$5.11	$1,967,775,225	6 / 13
2026-08-07	$5.11	$1,967,775,225	6 / 13
2026-08-08	$5.11	$1,967,775,225	6 / 13
2026-08-09	$5.11	$1,967,775,225	6 / 13
2026-08-10	$5.11	$1,967,775,225	6 / 13
2026-08-12	$5.11	$1,967,775,225	6 / 13
2026-08-13	$5.11	$1,967,775,225	6 / 13
2026-08-14	$5.11	$1,967,775,225	6 / 13
2026-08-15	$5.11	$1,967,775,225	6 / 13
2026-08-16	$5.11	$1,967,775,225	6 / 13
2026-08-17	$5.11	$1,967,775,225	6 / 13
2026-08-18	$5.11	$1,967,775,225	6 / 13
2026-08-19	$5.11	$1,967,775,225	6 / 13
2026-08-20	$5.12	$1,968,271,977	7 / 14
2026-08-21	$5.12	$1,968,271,977	7 / 14
2026-08-22	$5.12	$1,968,271,977	7 / 14
2026-08-23	$5.12	$1,968,271,977	7 / 14
2026-08-24	$5.12	$1,968,271,977	7 / 14
2026-08-25	$5.12	$1,968,271,977	7 / 14
2026-08-26	$5.12	$1,968,271,977	7 / 14
2026-08-27	$5.12	$1,968,271,977	7 / 14
2026-08-28	$5.12	$1,968,271,977	7 / 14
2026-08-29	$5.12	$1,967,587,361	7 / 14
2026-08-30	$5.12	$1,967,587,361	7 / 14
2026-08-31	$5.12	$1,967,587,361	7 / 14
2026-09-01	$5.12	$1,967,587,361	7 / 14
2026-09-02	$5.12	$1,967,587,361	7 / 14
2026-09-03	$5.12	$1,967,587,361	7 / 14
2026-09-04	$5.25	$1,975,301,224	7 / 14
2026-09-05	$5.33	$1,987,698,782	10 / 13
2026-09-06	$5.33	$1,987,698,782	10 / 13
2026-09-07	$5.33	$1,987,698,782	10 / 13
2026-09-08	$5.33	$1,987,698,782	10 / 13
2026-09-09	$5.33	$1,987,698,782	10 / 13
2026-09-10	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-09-11	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-09-12	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-09-13	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-09-14	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-09-15	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-09-16	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-09-17	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-09-18	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-09-19	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-09-20	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-09-21	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-09-22	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-09-23	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-09-24	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-09-25	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-09-26	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-09-27	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-09-28	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-09-29	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-09-30	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-10-01	$5.34	$1,989,162,515	10 / 13
2026-10-02	$5.34	$1,989,162,528	10 / 13
2026-10-03	$5.34	$1,989,162,528	10 / 13
2026-10-04	$5.34	$1,989,162,528	10 / 13
2026-10-05	$5.34	$1,989,162,528	10 / 13
2026-10-06	$5.34	$1,989,162,528	10 / 13
2026-10-07	$5.34	$1,989,162,528	10 / 13
2026-10-08	$5.34	$1,989,162,528	10 / 13
2026-10-09	$5.34	$1,989,162,528	10 / 13
2026-10-10	$5.34	$1,989,162,528	10 / 13
2026-10-11	$5.34	$1,989,162,528	10 / 13
2026-10-12	$5.34	$1,989,162,528	10 / 13
2026-10-13	$5.34	$1,989,162,528	10 / 13
2026-10-14	$5.34	$1,989,162,528	10 / 13
2026-10-15	$5.34	$1,989,162,528	10 / 13
2026-10-16	$5.34	$1,989,162,528	10 / 13
2026-10-17	$5.34	$1,989,162,528	10 / 13
2026-10-18	$5.34	$1,989,162,528	10 / 13
2026-10-19	$5.34	$1,989,162,528	10 / 13
2026-10-20	$5.34	$1,989,162,528	10 / 13
2026-10-21	$5.34	$1,989,162,962	10 / 13
2026-10-22	$5.34	$1,989,162,962	10 / 13
2026-10-23	$5.34	$1,989,162,962	10 / 13
2026-10-24	$5.34	$1,989,162,962	10 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	14	2	0
2026-06-01	14	2	0
2026-07-01	13	2	0
2026-08-01	14	3	0
2026-09-01	14	3	1
2026-10-01	13	3	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow near $365M-$380MFree cash flow: $276.7M
Maintain raised revenue and cash flow guidanceDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Operating income near $129MOperating income: $62.319M
Fiscal year revenue near $1.46B-$1.47BRevenue: $411.088M

Next proof point

Dec 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-59.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Guidewire Software outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented software business with strong recent results, rather than a turnaround. Its multi-year view is intact, supported by rising recurring revenue and better operating performance, but execution risk remains high.

What's priced into Guidewire Software

The shares are expensive versus peers, with a nearly two-times peer premium and a stretched expectations tag. The evidence points to some room between expectations and the valuation model, but confidence is medium and the premium leaves limited room for execution setbacks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results are strong: fiscal 2026 revenue grew 23%, ARR reached about $1.15 billion, and operating income and cash flow improved. Management priorities are on track, though recent CEO and CFO transitions and fragile earnings quality add uncertainty; the main near-term risk is a guidance reversal after a recent increase.

What Guidewire Software hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on sustaining ARR and revenue growth while continuing to improve operating income and cash flow. A guidance cut could damage management credibility, while easier interest rates or continued strength from major software peers could support the sector backdrop.