Grindr, Inc. (GRND)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
$14.93-3.43%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Grindr aims for $535M revenue in 2026. Profit target is $227M EBITDA. User growth and ad revenue should keep rising. The company has stable leadership and good market position.
Revenue growth could slow below 20%. Profit margins might shrink. Competition or user loss could hurt ad sales.
The price is about 40% below our fair value near $26. Analysts expect about 21% revenue growth. We agree revenue growth and profit targets are achievable.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $227 million in FY26
Increase full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to approximately $232 million, reflecting improved operating leverage and profitability.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity with a focus on technology. The current thesis state is cautious, as the company has shown mixed financial performance and faces elevated risks despite some positive management initiatives.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, suggesting that while execution quality is weak, it is not fully reflected in the valuation. The company is currently valued at a slight premium compared to its peers, indicating that expectations are somewhat aligned with its recent performance.
Management is on track to achieve its revenue and adjusted EBITDA targets for 2026, although the trajectory for adjusted EBITDA is marked as needing close observation. Recent quarterly growth has been steady, but the company has a history of missing earnings expectations, which adds a layer of uncertainty.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The company faces legal challenges that may impact its reputation and user trust. This situation could affect the overall perception of the brand and its future performance.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Loss of key executives or incentive misalignment
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $535 million in FY26
Continue driving revenue growth to meet or exceed the full-year 2026 revenue target of at least $535 million.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $129.9M in 2026-Q1 to $138.1M in 2026-Q2. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance from at least $535M to approximately $540M. The trajectory is delivering with consistent quarterly growth and upward guidance revisions.
“Increases expectation of full-year 2026 Revenue to approximately $540 Million”
“Increasing expectation of full-year 2026 Revenue of at least $535 Million”
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which could benefit tech stocks like GRND. Additionally, continued strong performance from sector leaders could provide momentum for GRND, while any reversal in guidance would significantly impact credibility.
Overall, the next 1 to 3 years will depend on management's execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.