Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-09
$68.83-2.02%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS grows to at least $5.29 in FY25: FY26 EPS guide $3.09 vs FY25 target $5.29.
Green Brick is cheap with a PE of 11. Revenue growth is stable. EPS is expected near $5.75 this year. The company fixed past financial errors.
Revenue fell 6% last quarter. The company faces regulatory issues. Profit growth may slow if housing demand weakens.
The price is about 0% below our fair value near $75. Analysts expect about 1% revenue growth. We see modest upside from improving earnings.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $5.29 in FY25
Breaks if: No progress on financial reporting issues over next year
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 0.5% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a cautious long-term thesis on a company in the Consumer Discretionary sector. It is characterized by a mix of stable growth in certain areas, but also faces challenges from market conditions and management execution.
The market currently prices GRBK as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that investors are not fully factoring in the potential for volatility in execution and sector performance. The valuation suggests that the market is aware of some fragility but does not expect a severe downturn.
Fundamentals are expected to remain stable in the near term, supported by management's focus on disciplined land acquisition and the growth of the financial services segment. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings expectations due to recent industry trends and GRBK's own historical performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the company's ability to maintain guidance in upcoming calls, the trajectory of inflation, and the performance of sector leaders like DHI, PHM, and LEN. Positive signals from these companies could support GRBK's performance, while negative developments could weigh on it.
Overall, GRBK's position remains intact for the next 1 to 3 years, but it faces notable risks that could impact its performance. Not investment advice.