Global Payments (GPN)

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$83.67-0.59%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Global Payments’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

16.05 → 16.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 23 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 21 to 23; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Repurchase $500 million in shares in 2026	The company repurchases $500 million in shares.	Intact	Share repurchases fall significantly short of $500 million in FY26	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Expand adjusted operating margin by 150 basis points in 2026	Profit margin expands by 1.5 points in 2026.	Broken	Operating margin expansion is less than 1.5 points in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted operating margin expanded 70 basis points on a normalized basis from 39.9% in 2026-Q1 to 42.0% in 2026-Q2. Management continues to expect approximately 150 basis points expansion for full year 2026, indicating delivery on margin expansion trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve at least 5% net revenue growth in 2026	A primary condition in Global Payments's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$16.10

$16.03 → $16.10 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$13.00B

$13.15B → $13.00B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$16.03	$13,147,492,172	20 / 20
2026-07-25	$16.03	$13,147,492,172	20 / 20
2026-07-26	$16.03	$13,140,315,490	20 / 20
2026-07-27	$16.12	$13,114,064,340	34 / 25
2026-07-28	$16.03	$13,140,315,490	20 / 20
2026-07-29	$16.12	$13,114,064,340	34 / 25
2026-07-30	$16.12	$13,114,064,340	34 / 25
2026-07-31	$16.12	$13,114,064,340	34 / 25
2026-08-01	$16.02	$13,140,316,494	20 / 20
2026-08-02	$16.12	$13,109,124,340	34 / 25
2026-08-03	$16.12	$13,109,124,340	34 / 25
2026-08-04	$16.12	$13,109,124,340	34 / 25
2026-08-05	$16.12	$13,089,643,680	33 / 26
2026-08-06	$16.01	$13,135,729,045	20 / 20
2026-08-07	$15.97	$13,030,592,578	18 / 20
2026-08-08	$15.95	$13,024,347,680	34 / 26
2026-08-09	$15.95	$13,024,347,680	34 / 26
2026-08-10	$15.97	$13,030,592,578	18 / 20
2026-08-12	$15.93	$13,011,408,060	34 / 26
2026-08-13	$15.97	$13,030,592,578	18 / 20
2026-08-14	$15.97	$13,030,592,578	18 / 20
2026-08-15	$15.97	$13,030,592,578	19 / 20
2026-08-16	$15.97	$13,030,592,578	19 / 20
2026-08-17	$15.97	$13,030,592,578	19 / 20
2026-08-18	$15.97	$13,030,592,578	19 / 20
2026-08-19	$15.97	$13,030,592,578	19 / 20
2026-08-20	$16.05	$13,011,156,505	21 / 21
2026-08-21	$16.05	$13,011,156,505	21 / 21
2026-08-22	$16.05	$13,011,142,616	21 / 21
2026-08-23	$16.05	$13,011,142,616	21 / 21
2026-08-24	$16.05	$13,011,142,616	21 / 21
2026-08-25	$16.03	$13,009,309,617	21 / 21
2026-08-26	$16.03	$13,004,884,601	21 / 21
2026-08-27	$16.03	$13,004,884,601	21 / 21
2026-08-28	$16.03	$13,004,884,601	21 / 21
2026-08-29	$16.02	$12,999,706,030	21 / 21
2026-08-30	$16.02	$12,999,706,030	21 / 21
2026-08-31	$16.02	$12,999,706,030	21 / 21
2026-09-01	$16.02	$12,999,706,030	21 / 21
2026-09-02	$16.02	$12,999,706,030	21 / 21
2026-09-03	$16.02	$12,998,170,316	21 / 21
2026-09-04	$16.02	$12,998,170,316	20 / 21
2026-09-05	$16.02	$12,997,869,912	20 / 21
2026-09-06	$16.02	$12,997,869,912	20 / 21
2026-09-07	$16.02	$12,997,869,912	20 / 21
2026-09-08	$16.02	$12,997,869,912	20 / 21
2026-09-09	$16.02	$12,997,869,912	20 / 21
2026-09-10	$16.02	$12,997,869,912	20 / 21
2026-09-11	$16.02	$12,997,834,198	20 / 21
2026-09-12	$16.02	$13,000,184,743	21 / 22
2026-09-13	$16.02	$13,000,184,743	21 / 22
2026-09-14	$16.02	$13,000,184,742	21 / 22
2026-09-15	$16.05	$13,000,184,742	21 / 22
2026-09-16	$16.04	$13,000,184,742	21 / 23
2026-09-17	$16.04	$13,000,184,742	22 / 23
2026-09-18	$16.04	$13,000,184,742	22 / 23
2026-09-19	$16.04	$13,000,184,742	22 / 23
2026-09-20	$16.04	$13,000,184,742	22 / 23
2026-09-21	$16.04	$13,000,184,742	22 / 23
2026-09-22	$16.04	$13,000,184,742	22 / 23
2026-09-23	$16.04	$13,000,184,742	22 / 23
2026-09-24	$16.04	$12,998,226,846	21 / 23
2026-09-25	$16.04	$12,998,226,846	21 / 23
2026-09-26	$16.07	$13,001,485,951	21 / 23
2026-09-27	$16.07	$13,001,485,951	21 / 23
2026-09-28	$16.07	$13,001,485,951	21 / 23
2026-09-29	$16.07	$13,001,479,284	22 / 23
2026-09-30	$16.07	$13,001,479,284	22 / 23
2026-10-01	$16.07	$13,001,479,284	22 / 23
2026-10-02	$16.07	$13,001,479,284	22 / 23
2026-10-03	$16.07	$13,001,479,284	22 / 23
2026-10-04	$16.07	$13,001,479,284	22 / 23
2026-10-05	$16.07	$13,001,479,284	22 / 23
2026-10-06	$16.07	$13,001,478,704	22 / 23
2026-10-07	$16.07	$13,001,478,704	22 / 23
2026-10-08	$16.07	$13,001,478,704	22 / 23
2026-10-09	$16.09	$13,002,992,037	22 / 23
2026-10-10	$16.09	$13,002,998,704	22 / 23
2026-10-11	$16.09	$13,002,998,704	22 / 23
2026-10-12	$16.09	$13,002,999,284	22 / 23
2026-10-13	$16.09	$13,002,999,284	22 / 23
2026-10-14	$16.10	$13,002,973,741	22 / 23
2026-10-15	$16.10	$13,002,973,741	23 / 23

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	19	2
2026-06-01	12	19	2
2026-07-01	14	20	2
2026-08-01	14	19	2
2026-09-01	14	20	2
2026-10-01	16	20	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 20 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

OppenheimerOct 8

$115.00New observation · no comparable prior

Loop Capital MarketsSep 24

$137.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$75.35$150.70

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Repurchase $500 million in shares in 2026Required source inputs unavailable
Expand adjusted operating margin by 150 basis points in 2026Published status: Broken
Achieve at least 5% net revenue growth in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Global Payments outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story with a medium confidence level. GPN is currently navigating a tough sector backdrop and has shown volatility in management and earnings quality.

What's priced into Global Payments

The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, indicating that expectations are somewhat justified given the current performance. GPN is seen as relatively cheap compared to its peers, but there is a notable expectations gap.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve its goals of margin expansion and revenue growth. However, the recent financial performance has been weak, and there is a low probability of missing future targets, though past misses raise caution.

What Global Payments hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on whether GPN can maintain its margin expansion and revenue growth while navigating sector headwinds. Key factors include guidance changes and performance of sector leaders like Visa and Mastercard.