Generac (GNRC)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-15

$192.68-2.88%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Generac’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+9.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

11.76 → 12.88 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA margin near 18.5 to 19.5%	A primary condition in Generac's published investment case. The stated target is >=18.5% adjusted EBITDA margin.	Improving	Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 17% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 17.0% in 2025 to an expected 20.0 to 21.0% in 2026, with 24.8% margin achieved in 2026-Q2 partly due to tariff refunds. Management's margin expansion focus is delivering positive results. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Net sales growth at mid-to-high teens percent	A primary condition in Generac's published investment case. The stated target is >=15% YoY.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 12% in FY26	Revenue growth: 10.59% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202610.586532 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bc6cd79b-07c9-4abd-b83d-8d9ee908b607. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Completion of strategic acquisitions to enhance market position	The company is completing strategic acquisitions to strengthen its market.	Intact	Failure to complete announced acquisitions by end of FY26	Qualitative: M&A active (Amazon deal signed Sep 2026) Generac signed a strategic agreement with Amazon in September 2026 and completed a prior acquisition in April 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management completed acquisitions of Allmand in 2026-Q1 and Enercon in 2026-Q2, expanding capacity and vertical integration for large megawatt generators. These acquisitions align with management's stated growth and margin expansion strategies. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$12.88

$11.20 → $12.88 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.52B

$5.67B → $6.52B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$11.20	$5,669,729,499	13 / 14
2026-07-25	$11.31	$5,665,997,860	20 / 19
2026-07-26	$11.31	$5,665,997,860	20 / 19
2026-07-27	$11.31	$5,666,018,910	20 / 19
2026-07-28	$11.31	$5,666,018,910	20 / 19
2026-07-29	$11.22	$5,683,377,860	14 / 15
2026-07-30	$11.31	$5,681,424,180	20 / 19
2026-07-31	$11.62	$5,886,702,140	20 / 19
2026-08-01	$11.55	$5,900,047,799	14 / 15
2026-08-02	$11.68	$5,926,281,090	20 / 19
2026-08-03	$11.61	$5,938,047,799	14 / 15
2026-08-04	$11.68	$5,926,281,090	20 / 19
2026-08-05	$11.73	$5,949,671,530	20 / 19
2026-08-06	$11.61	$5,938,047,799	14 / 15
2026-08-07	$11.66	$5,962,737,707	14 / 15
2026-08-08	$11.82	$5,967,097,850	20 / 19
2026-08-09	$11.82	$5,967,097,850	20 / 19
2026-08-10	$11.66	$5,962,737,707	14 / 15
2026-08-12	$11.66	$5,962,737,707	14 / 15
2026-08-13	$11.66	$5,962,737,707	14 / 15
2026-08-14	$11.66	$5,962,737,707	14 / 15
2026-08-15	$11.66	$5,962,737,707	14 / 15
2026-08-16	$11.66	$5,962,737,707	14 / 15
2026-08-17	$11.66	$5,962,737,707	14 / 15
2026-08-18	$11.66	$5,962,737,707	14 / 15
2026-08-19	$11.66	$5,962,737,707	14 / 15
2026-08-20	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-08-21	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-08-22	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-08-23	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-08-24	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-08-25	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-08-26	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-08-27	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-08-28	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-08-29	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-08-30	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-08-31	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-09-01	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-09-02	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-09-03	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-09-04	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-09-05	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-09-06	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-09-07	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-09-08	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-09-09	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-09-10	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-09-11	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-09-12	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-09-13	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-09-14	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-09-15	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-09-16	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-09-17	$11.76	$5,981,108,504	14 / 15
2026-09-18	$12.02	$6,126,353,471	14 / 15
2026-09-19	$12.30	$6,257,567,887	14 / 14
2026-09-20	$12.30	$6,257,567,887	13 / 14
2026-09-21	$12.30	$6,257,567,887	13 / 14
2026-09-22	$12.35	$6,287,456,776	13 / 14
2026-09-23	$12.35	$6,287,456,776	13 / 14
2026-09-24	$12.35	$6,287,470,415	13 / 14
2026-09-25	$12.35	$6,287,470,415	13 / 14
2026-09-26	$12.35	$6,287,470,415	13 / 14
2026-09-27	$12.38	$6,303,057,860	13 / 14
2026-09-28	$12.38	$6,303,057,860	13 / 14
2026-09-29	$12.38	$6,303,057,860	13 / 14
2026-09-30	$12.48	$6,365,768,544	13 / 14
2026-10-01	$12.49	$6,373,540,766	13 / 14
2026-10-02	$12.49	$6,373,540,766	13 / 14
2026-10-03	$12.49	$6,373,540,766	13 / 14
2026-10-04	$12.49	$6,373,539,088	13 / 14
2026-10-05	$12.49	$6,373,539,088	13 / 14
2026-10-06	$12.68	$6,417,916,866	13 / 14
2026-10-07	$12.77	$6,450,972,421	13 / 14
2026-10-08	$12.77	$6,450,972,421	13 / 14
2026-10-09	$12.88	$6,519,437,031	14 / 14
2026-10-10	$12.88	$6,519,437,031	15 / 15
2026-10-11	$12.88	$6,519,437,031	14 / 15
2026-10-12	$12.88	$6,519,437,031	14 / 15
2026-10-13	$12.88	$6,519,447,557	14 / 15
2026-10-14	$12.88	$6,519,447,557	14 / 15
2026-10-15	$12.88	$6,519,447,557	14 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	13	8	1
2026-06-01	13	6	1
2026-07-01	14	7	1
2026-08-01	14	7	0
2026-09-01	14	7	0
2026-10-01	16	7	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades9 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 10 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 8

$303.00New observation · no comparable prior

KeyBancOct 8

$280.00New observation · no comparable prior

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 5 · prior Jul 30

$333.00 → $297.00-10.8%

Stifel NicolausSep 30 · prior Jul 30

$285.00 → $290.00+1.8%

Wells FargoSep 17

$280.00New observation · no comparable prior

Roth CapitalSep 17 · prior Jul 30

$214.00 → $250.00+16.8%

Raymond JamesSep 17 · prior May 22

$302.00 → $286.00-5.3%

HSBCSep 17

$333.00New observation · no comparable prior

Canaccord GenuitySep 17 · prior Apr 30

$325.00 → $375.00+15.4%

$0$206.25$412.50

3 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA margin near 18.5 to 19.5%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Net sales growth at mid-to-high teens percentPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-40.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Generac outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth and margin expansion. The current thesis state is stable, supported by recent strong financial results and management's commitment to growth initiatives.

What's priced into Generac

The market appears to have priced in a premium compared to peers, reflecting a justified valuation despite being considered expensive. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully anticipate the potential for continued strong performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to continue showing robust earnings quality and strong recent performance, driven by management's focus on sales growth and margin improvement. However, there is an elevated risk due to potential sector headwinds and recent erratic earnings surprises in the industry.

What Generac hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on GNRC's ability to maintain its growth trajectory and improve margins while navigating sector challenges. Key forward scenarios include the performance of sector bellwethers and management's guidance on future earnings.