Gilead Sciences (GILD)

NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-10-15

$156.19-0.75%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Gilead Sciences’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.93 → 9.99 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete $7.8B Arcellx acquisition	The Arcellx acquisition boosts its cancer drug portfolio.	Intact	acquisition not completed or fails to add value by 2028	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Product sales excluding Veklury reach $29.4B to $29.8B	Gilead grows product sales excluding Veklury to about $29.4 billion in 2026.	Under Pressure	product sales excluding Veklury fall below $29.4B in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Product sales excluding Veklury grew from approximately $6.3B in 2025-Q1 to $7.6B in 2026-Q2, reflecting consistent year-over-year growth of 4-10% per quarter and 4% full year 2025 growth. Management has consistently emphasized this growth focus and the financials show delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Total revenue near $30.2 billion	Total revenue is expected near $30.2 billion this year.	Under Pressure	total revenue falls below $30.0B in FY26	Revenue: $7.803B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$30.2B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20267,803,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5b4ca829-26a3-4732-acc2-509609453622. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.99

$9.69 → $9.99 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$32.82B

$32.37B → $32.82B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.69	$32,372,021,906	15 / 17
2026-07-25	$9.69	$32,372,021,906	15 / 17
2026-07-26	$9.63	$32,282,725,630	25 / 24
2026-07-27	$9.67	$32,340,835,397	16 / 18
2026-07-28	$9.67	$32,340,835,397	16 / 18
2026-07-29	$9.62	$32,296,850,630	26 / 24
2026-07-30	$9.62	$32,296,850,630	26 / 24
2026-07-31	$9.62	$32,296,850,630	26 / 24
2026-08-01	$9.65	$32,355,574,528	16 / 18
2026-08-02	$9.62	$32,296,850,630	26 / 24
2026-08-03	$9.62	$32,296,850,630	26 / 24
2026-08-04	$9.62	$32,296,850,630	26 / 24
2026-08-05	$9.65	$32,355,574,528	16 / 18
2026-08-06	$9.65	$32,355,574,528	16 / 18
2026-08-07	$9.90	$32,712,717,935	16 / 18
2026-08-08	$9.87	$32,675,647,360	25 / 24
2026-08-09	$9.87	$32,675,647,360	25 / 24
2026-08-10	$9.87	$32,675,647,360	25 / 24
2026-08-12	$9.87	$32,673,519,360	26 / 24
2026-08-13	$9.90	$32,712,717,935	16 / 18
2026-08-14	$9.90	$32,712,717,935	16 / 18
2026-08-15	$9.90	$32,712,717,935	16 / 18
2026-08-16	$9.90	$32,712,717,935	16 / 18
2026-08-17	$9.90	$32,712,717,935	16 / 18
2026-08-18	$9.90	$32,712,717,935	16 / 18
2026-08-19	$9.90	$32,712,717,935	16 / 18
2026-08-20	$9.90	$32,720,598,007	16 / 18
2026-08-21	$9.90	$32,720,598,007	16 / 18
2026-08-22	$9.90	$32,720,598,007	16 / 18
2026-08-23	$9.90	$32,720,598,007	16 / 18
2026-08-24	$9.90	$32,720,598,007	16 / 18
2026-08-25	$9.90	$32,720,598,007	16 / 18
2026-08-26	$9.90	$32,720,598,007	16 / 18
2026-08-27	$9.90	$32,720,598,007	16 / 18
2026-08-28	$9.90	$32,720,598,007	16 / 18
2026-08-29	$9.90	$32,720,598,007	16 / 18
2026-08-30	$9.90	$32,720,598,007	16 / 18
2026-08-31	$9.90	$32,720,598,007	16 / 18
2026-09-01	$9.90	$32,720,598,007	16 / 18
2026-09-02	$9.89	$32,703,974,457	16 / 18
2026-09-03	$9.89	$32,703,974,457	16 / 18
2026-09-04	$9.89	$32,703,975,323	16 / 18
2026-09-05	$9.89	$32,703,975,323	16 / 18
2026-09-06	$9.89	$32,703,975,323	16 / 18
2026-09-07	$9.89	$32,703,975,323	16 / 18
2026-09-08	$9.89	$32,703,975,323	16 / 18
2026-09-09	$9.89	$32,703,975,323	16 / 18
2026-09-10	$9.89	$32,708,122,419	16 / 18
2026-09-11	$9.89	$32,711,998,081	16 / 18
2026-09-12	$9.89	$32,711,983,210	16 / 18
2026-09-13	$9.89	$32,711,983,210	16 / 18
2026-09-14	$9.89	$32,711,983,210	16 / 18
2026-09-15	$9.93	$32,698,149,877	16 / 18
2026-09-16	$9.93	$32,698,149,877	16 / 18
2026-09-17	$9.93	$32,698,149,877	16 / 18
2026-09-18	$9.93	$32,698,149,877	16 / 18
2026-09-19	$9.93	$32,698,149,877	16 / 18
2026-09-20	$9.93	$32,698,149,877	16 / 18
2026-09-21	$9.93	$32,698,149,877	16 / 18
2026-09-22	$9.93	$32,698,149,877	16 / 18
2026-09-23	$9.93	$32,698,149,877	16 / 18
2026-09-24	$9.93	$32,698,149,877	16 / 18
2026-09-25	$9.93	$32,698,149,877	16 / 18
2026-09-26	$9.93	$32,698,149,877	16 / 18
2026-09-27	$9.93	$32,698,149,877	16 / 18
2026-09-28	$9.93	$32,698,149,877	16 / 18
2026-09-29	$9.93	$32,698,149,877	16 / 18
2026-09-30	$9.93	$32,698,149,877	16 / 18
2026-10-01	$9.93	$32,698,149,877	16 / 18
2026-10-02	$9.93	$32,698,149,877	16 / 18
2026-10-03	$9.93	$32,698,149,877	16 / 18
2026-10-04	$9.93	$32,698,148,839	16 / 18
2026-10-05	$9.93	$32,698,148,839	16 / 18
2026-10-06	$9.93	$32,698,148,839	16 / 18
2026-10-07	$9.93	$32,698,148,839	16 / 18
2026-10-08	$9.94	$32,732,909,012	16 / 18
2026-10-09	$9.96	$32,763,632,216	16 / 18
2026-10-10	$9.96	$32,760,603,301	16 / 18
2026-10-11	$9.96	$32,760,603,301	16 / 18
2026-10-12	$9.96	$32,760,603,301	16 / 18
2026-10-13	$9.96	$32,771,504,951	16 / 18
2026-10-14	$9.98	$32,834,425,564	16 / 18
2026-10-15	$9.99	$32,822,133,899	16 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	24	8	0
2026-06-01	24	7	0
2026-07-01	23	7	0
2026-08-01	22	7	1
2026-09-01	22	6	1
2026-10-01	22	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 12

$164.00New observation · no comparable prior

RBC CapitalOct 8 · prior Aug 5

$123.00 → $126.00+2.4%

Truist FinancialOct 7 · prior Aug 5

$150.00 → $158.00+5.3%

$0$90.20$180.40

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Complete $7.8B Arcellx acquisitionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Product sales excluding Veklury reach $29.4B to $29.8BPublished status: Under Pressure
Total revenue near $30.2 billionPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Gilead Sciences outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent product sales growth and disciplined capital allocation. The current thesis state is intact, reflecting a muted price reaction despite recent financial performance being solid within its industry.

What's priced into Gilead Sciences

The market seems to price Gilead as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. The valuation indicates that investors may not be fully factoring in the potential for future growth in product sales and integration of new assets.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show steady growth in product sales excluding Veklury, supported by management's commitment. However, risks remain due to potential sector weakness and the company's recent history of earnings misses, which could impact future performance.

What Gilead Sciences hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on growth priorities, particularly in oncology, and the overall health of the healthcare sector. Key scenarios include the performance of sector bellwethers and any shifts in guidance that could affect investor confidence.