Griffon Corporation (GFF)

NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$97.04+0.04%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Griffon Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	—	470.73M
EPS	—	1.436
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.8B	—
EBITDA	$458Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.9B
EPS	—	6.106
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.98B
EPS	—	7.114

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve $458 million adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2026	Adjusted EBITDA target is $458 million for 2026.	Intact	adjusted EBITDA falls below $420 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow exceeds net income in fiscal 2026	Free cash flow beats net income with $100.7 million in six months.	Improving	free cash flow falls below net income in FY26	Free cash flow: $114.419M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: free cash flow > net income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026114,419,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow from continuing operations was $99.6M in 2026-Q1 and $11.3M in 2026-Q2, exceeding net income of $64.4M and $46.9M respectively. Capital expenditures are guided at $50 million for fiscal 2026. The trajectory shows management reiterating the goal, with free cash flow generally exceeding net income, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve $1.8 billion revenue in fiscal 2026	Griffon aims for $1.8 billion revenue in fiscal 2026.	Intact	revenue falls below $1.6 billion in FY26	Revenue: $481.37M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.8 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026481,370,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 17d0f52a-8555-4b2e-9d17-ebc95cf6f0a5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Griffon maintained its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance at $1.8 billion from continuing operations across 2026-Q1 to 2026-Q3. Quarterly revenues showed variability: $649.1M in Q1, $421.9M in Q2, and $481.4M in Q3, reflecting ongoing strategic divestitures. The trajectory is consistent with management's stated target but reflects the impact of discontinued operations and restructuring. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	0	0
2026-06-01	7	0	0
2026-07-01	7	0	0
2026-08-01	7	0	0
2026-09-01	7	0	0
2026-10-01	7	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve $458 million adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow exceeds net income in fiscal 2026Free cash flow: $114.419M
Achieve $1.8 billion revenue in fiscal 2026Revenue: $481.37M

Next proof point

Nov 18, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Griffon Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on strategic growth and operational efficiency. The current thesis state is intact, but confidence has shifted to medium due to mixed recent performance and sector challenges.

What's priced into Griffon Corporation

The market appears to price GFF at a premium compared to peers, suggesting that expectations for future performance may be high. There is an expectations gap indicating that the market might be anticipating stronger results than what has been delivered recently.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may show variability as management works towards its revenue and cash flow goals. Recent results have been mixed, and while free cash flow has generally exceeded net income, the overall financial performance is neutral, reflecting ongoing strategic changes.

What Griffon Corporation hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers and GFF's ability to meet its revenue and cash flow targets. Any changes in guidance or performance from key industry players could significantly impact GFF's trajectory.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, GFF's performance will depend on management's execution and external sector conditions. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.